At the end of the Gu season, the combination of low rainfall and high temperatures for rainfed crops in Southern Somalia makes crop failure very likely. Gu season planting had started late due to the late onset of the main rains and at the end of the season, cumulated rainfall was still 25%-50% below average in most of the country. Irrigated areas are also expected to provide below average production, including in North-West, as temperatures have been above average for the last 3 months and water levels in the main rivers were reportedly low. Limited river water levels are also contributing to water scarcity for both human consumption and livestock needs. The area of irrigated crops along the Shabelle river in Lower Shabelle region, is lower than at the same time in 2021, another drought season: ASAP High Resolution Viewer
. According to OCHA (April 2022) and to the latest IPC report (22 April 2022), more than 7.7 million people in Somalia need humanitarian assistance and more than 6 million people (about 40% of the population) are facing acute food shortages (IPC 3+) in May-June-July (MJJ) in 2022 due to prolonged drought, resource-based conflicts and the pandemic that continues to destroy lives and livelihoods since the beginning of the year. According to IGAD (July 2022), around 213, 000 people in the most affected areas are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between June and September 2022. An increased risk of famine is forecasted in eight areas of Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hirra, Addun pastoral of Northeast and Central, Agro Pastoral livelihoods in Bay and Bakol regions, and IDP settlements in Baidoa, Dhusamarebo, Galkayo and Mogadishu, mainly due to the prolonged drought and increase in food and energy prices amid to war in Ukraine. According to FAO and WFP (May 2022), Somalia is one of the countries in the region with the highest dependence on cereals imports from Ukraine and Russia.