Agricultural production threatened by combination of drought and high input prices in many countries

Southern Africa: Harvest of main season cereal crops is ongoing in the region and expected to be concluded in June. Production prospects vary across the countries owing to the mixed seasonal performance. The rainy season ended in April with good rains in the last month, however the combined effects of the October-December drought, crop damage by cyclones and the dry spell of February will result in declines of the main season cereal harvests in most parts. For example, countries such as Mozambique, Madagascar and Malawi are expected to have decreased production due to the multiple climatic shocks that had a negative impact on crop development. On the other hand, despite heavy rains and flooding in April, South Africa’s latest production estimate figures indicate an above the 5-year average harvest. Although the region may have adequate maize availability to meet its demand (WFP, Seasonal Monitor, 03/2022), ”the combination of high food prices and high fertiliser prices would hit Southern Africa region hard and potentially push millions more into hunger and poverty, particularly the poorest segments of populations who spend a disproportionately high share of their income on transport and food“ (WFP:Implications of the Ukraine Crisis).

East Africa: Drought conditions are affecting large areas of East Africa, after the late onset, irregular distribution and below-average cumulated amounts of the March-May rainfall received by the region. According to satellite imagery, crop conditions have continued to worsen in May in all of Somalia, in southern and central Ethiopia, in central, eastern and southern Kenya and parts of Uganda and Tanzania. The worsening drought is of major concern given that East Africa has experienced the impacts of three consecutive poor rainy seasons. However, the cumulative Copernicus C3S Multimodel rainfall forecast for June-September shows a high probability of wetter than usual conditions for the northern part of the region, which would be a positive starting point for a possibly better crop season in the unimodal production areas of Sudan and in the main crop season (Meher) areas of Ethiopia. The pressure on food security caused by exceptionally prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa appears to be worsening with Russia´s war in Ukraine through reduced food imports, high prices of food, fuel and fertilizer. According to a WFP (May 2022) report, export restrictions on grains, vegetable oil and fertiliser have surged since the start of the crisis, reaching the level of the 2008 global food crisis in terms of share of global trade. The region witnessed significant short-term jumps in prices of wheat, bread, fuel and fertiliser and widespread shortages of fuels in Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Burundi. According to the GRFC (2022) report, approximately 39.8-41.3 million people across the region are forecast to be in ‘Crisis or worse’ (IPC Phase 3 or above) in 2022. Around 168,100 people were forecast to be in ‘Catastrophe’ (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia and South Sudan. The combined impact of weather extremes, conflict-related displacement and rising food prices are the drivers of high-level acute food insecurity in the region.

West and Central Africa: First season maize crop conditions are generally favourable in the southern bi-modal parts of the region. Rainfall in the last month was average to above-average across most parts of the region save for north-western parts of Nigeria and parts of Guinea where rainfall was below-average. The Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast show a high probability for below-average June /July rainfall for southern Cameroon, south-western Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire, whereas the forecast for Sahelian countries indicates above-average rainfall amounts for the same period. According to a report from FAO, a major food crisis is ongoing in West Africa and in the Sahel, and between June and August 2022 about 38.3 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity the highest level on record since the start of the CH analysis and about 40% higher compared to the same period in 2021. Russia´s invasion of Ukraine puts further pressure on the already fragile food security conditions in the region (soaring international prices of food, fuel and fertilisers). According to a report from WFP, West Africa imports around 22 million tons of cereals, of which 46% of wheat come from Ukraine and Russia. Additionally, the worsening security conditions in conflict-affected areas and limited access to fertilisers are likely to curtail yields and hamper planting activities of the 2022 main cereal crops, currently underway in southern parts of coastal countries and expected to start shortly in the Sahel (FAO).

North Africa: Towards the end of the winter wheat season in North Africa, negative impacts of drought are visible clearly in most of Morocco and in the western part of Algeria. In north-eastern and north-central Algeria on the contrary late season rainfall has allowed important recovery of crop conditions to near normal levels. Latest yield forecasts of the JRC MARS bulletin for May indicate wheat and barley yields of less than 50% of the 5-year average in Morocco, and of ca. 20% below the 5-year average in Algeria, according to the same source. Below-average winter cereal production in one or more countries in North Africa is of particular concern with the expected food price inflation linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Middle East: In the Middle East, production of winter cereals is expected to be very poor in the north of Syria (from Aleppo to Ninewa), the main cereals production area and in the north and east of Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk and Diyala). These poor prospects are the result of poor rainfall since autumn 2021 combined with poor socio-economic conditions in both countries, and, in Iraq, of a government’s decision to halve the area sown to irrigated crops to save water for human consumption. In northern Iran, biomass of winter crops is close to average while drier than average conditions have been prevailing for the last 3 months in the centre south and prospects are below average for rainfed crops and also irrigated crops in Fars and Esfahan. In Yemen, conditions of recently sown sorghum are mixed with below-average biomass in the Central Highlands and average biomass in Al Hudaydah. Food insecurity still affects an estimated 17 million people as a result of the seven-year conflict and the poor socio-economic conditions, a situation that will improve if the ceasefire started on 2 April is extended after end of May.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, the biomass of winter crops is good and prospects are favourable. In Afghanistan, harvest of winter cereals is underway with mixed prospects: poor in the north-west, below average in the north and close to average in the east. As regards food security, the socio-economic conditions remain very poor with about 20 million people facing high levels of acute hunger according to the last IPC report. In South Asia, harvest of Rabi crops (winter cereals) in Pakistan and Boro rice in Bangladesh have been completed and prospects are favourable due to good biomass, although the heatwave that struck Pakistan with temperatures up to 6 °C above normal may have impacted grain filling. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of second (Yala) rice and maize crops has finalised under favourable weather conditions but with fertiliser and fuel shortages due to a strong economic crisis.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, dry season rice harvest is underway or nearing completion with good prospects thanks to average to above-average biomass while planting of wet season rice has started, favoured by an early arrival of the monsoon. In Indonesia, prospects are favourable for wet season rice harvested from February to June and planting of dry season rice has started under favourable moisture conditions.

Central America and Caribbean islands: In Central America the main (Primera) planting of maize-beans, rice and sorghum has been underway with generally good conditions in El Salvador and Nicaragua. However, in Guatemala and Honduras the start of the main rainy season is presenting erratic patterns, with excessive rainfall between end of April to early May, but very poor rainfall accumulation during the second dekad of May. By the end of the month a low-pressure system affected the region bringing heavy rain and causing authorities to raise an extreme weather alert in Honduras (Reliefweb, 2022). Floods were reported in San Pedro and Tegucigalpa (GDACS, May 2022). This might hinder the start of the main agricultural season, with either delayed or constrained planting activities. In the Caribbean, Haiti’s main season crops received poor rainfall during the first two dekads of May, however given the prior wet conditions in mid-April and the water replenishment in most of the country in the last dekad of May, crop recovery is expected. In Cuba, rice and maize harvest concluded and the next cycle of rice sowing was underway with favourable weather conditions except in western areas that experienced a rainfall deficit during the first dekad of May, particularly in Pinar del Rio, however with no major impact on crops. In all countries, fuel and input prices might be hindering main season planting. In Honduras, a support programme to reduce the burden on small farmers was initiated and the government started to distribute a bag of improved maize seeds and 90 kg of fertilisers to 100,000 smallholder farmers with less than 0.7 hectares of land (FAO, June 2022).

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country on the map.

Low winter cereal production expected in North Africa and Middle East; Drought worsens in East Africa

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season is ending, with the harvest of summer crops starting in April. Rainfall in the last month was good across the region and helped alleviate drought conditions that affected central and eastern parts of the region from February and through early March. However, there is concern for reduced cereal production at regional level due to the drought that affected many parts of the region between October-December 2021; the flooding and loss of croplands brought by Cyclones Ana and Gombe; and the dry spell of February 2022. Vulnerable and food-insecure areas in southern Angola, north-western Namibia and southern Madagascar have already experienced widespread rainfall deficits during most of the agricultural season, limiting crop and pastoral production for 2021/2022. Additionally, below-average production prospects are expected for Mozambique, and Malawi, where multiple climatic shocks had a negative impact on crop development. On the contrary, an above-average output is forecast in South Africa, the largest maize producer in the region.

East Africa: The early-season drought during the main rainy season has worsened in May across the Horn of Africa, with significant rainfall deficits across southern and central Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, central and southern Ethiopia and parts of Uganda. This development is of major concern given that East Africa has experienced the impacts of one of the most severe droughts in recent history (since 1981) with three consecutive poor rainy seasons and very poor rainfall in late 2020, and during both rainy seasons of 2021. The cumulative Copernicus C3S Multimodel rainfall forecast for May-June shows a high probability of drier-than-average conditions continuing in the Horn, while wetter-than-average conditions are predicted in South Sudan, western Kenya, Ethiopian Highlands and Uganda. The pressure on food security caused by the exceptionally prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa appears even more threatening with the increase in food prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many food importers in the region, to a large extent, depend on the imports from Ukraine. Small-scale farmers who were already facing challenges in accessing farming inputs may see their access to fertiliser further reduced as a result of limited amounts available on international markets. According to the GRFC (2022) report, approximately 39.8-41.3 million people across the region are forecast to be in ‘Crisis or worse’ (IPC Phase 3 or above) in 2022. Around 168,100 people were forecast to be in ‘Catastrophe’ (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia and South Sudan. The combined impact of weather extremes, conflict-related displacement and rising food prices are the drivers of high-level acute food insecurity in the region.

West and Central Africa: The season’s first maize planting started in the bi-seasonal parts of the region under generally favourable agro-climatic conditions. Rainfall in the last month was average across most parts of the region, except for southern parts of Cameroon, where rainfall was below average. Slightly below-average vegetation conditions are observed in central and southern Nigeria, Ghana, Togo and Benin, but it is still very early in the season to draw conclusions. The Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast show a high probability of below-average May/June rainfall, except for western, coastal parts of the region. In the Sudanian and Sahelian zones, land preparation is underway for the next sowing. The persistence of insecurity and armed conflicts continue to lead to population displacements and the disruption of livelihood activities in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-west and north-central Nigeria and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon.

North Africa: The winter cereal season in North Africa suffered from drought stress and, in most cases, rainfall in March came too late for crop recovery. In Morocco and in western Algeria, the recovery of winter crops due to late season rainfall was limited and reduced yields are expected. On the contrary, yield forecasts in Algeria have improved as compared with previous months’ forecasts due to partial crop conditions recovery, especially for durum wheat. Low winter wheat production in one or more countries in North Africa is of particular concern with the expected food price inflation linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Middle East: In the Middle East, the production of winter cereals is expected to be very poor (worse than in 2021) in the north of Syria (from Aleppo to Ninewa), the main cereal production area, and in the north and east of Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk and, to a lesser extent, Sulaymaniyah and Diyala). These poor prospects are the result of poor rainfall since autumn 2021 combined with poor socio-economic conditions in both countries and, in Iraq, the government’s decision to halve the area sown for irrigated crops to save reservoir water for human consumption. In contrast in Iran, the biomass of winter crops is still close to average thanks to above-average temperatures since April and despite 50%-below-average rainfall in April. In Yemen, the sowing of sorghum has started under average weather conditions on the western coast, and drier-than-average conditions in the Central Highlands. Food insecurity still affects an estimated 17 million people as a result of the 7-year conflict and the poor socio-economic conditions, a situation that may improve if the cease-fire started on 2 April is extended beyond the end of May.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, the biomass of winter crops is now close to average thanks to irrigation and above-average temperatures since January, and despite up to 50%-below-average rainfall in April in many areas. In Afghanistan, the biomass of winter cereals is close to or above average in most regions, except for Jawzjan and Badghis in the north-west. However, drier-than-average conditions forecast for the next three months will likely hamper any early growth of rainfed crops, e.g. spring wheat. As regards food security, the socio-economic conditions remain very poor. Around 20 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) according to the last IPC report. In South Asia, the harvest of Rabi crops (winter cereals) in Pakistan and Boro rice in Bangladesh has started with favourable prospects due to good biomass. However, the heat wave in Pakistan, with temperatures up to 6˚C above normal, may have impacted grain filling. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of second (Yala) rice and maize crops has started under favourable weather conditions but with fertiliser and fuel shortages due to a strong economic crisis.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental Southeast Asia, prospects are good for dry season rice harvested from March to June. In some areas (central and northern Thailand, south Vietnam), the planting of wet season rice has started under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, prospects are favourable for wet season rice harvested from February to June, and the planting of dry season rice is about to start.

Central America and Caribbean islands: In Central America, land preparation and early sowing of the Primera season crops, maize, beans, and rice, were underway under favourable conditions, except in parts of central and western Guatemala where below-normal rainfall could delay sowing for the Primera season. Normal weather predominates as the region transitions from the dry period to the next rainy season. In Honduras, the rice (second) harvest was completed with average outputs. In the Caribbean, conditions for planting on the islands were mostly favourable. In Cuba, rice (main) planting was initiated with delays in some eastern provinces amid lower rainfall; the harvest of rice (second), maize (second) and potato was underway, and in Haiti, sowing for the maize-rice (main) season concluded. Shocks to food security and agriculture are due to the increasing international prices of food, fertiliser and fuel (IFPRI, April 2022), already being felt in all countries (FEWS NET (April, 2022); WFP Market Monitor (April, 2022); Fertilizer Dashboard IFPRI (April 2022)). This could reduce areas planted, yields, and increase production costs. In Cuba, which has been in an economic crisis induced by the pandemic, a gradual reduction of rice areas has occurred in past years and is expected to happen again for 2022, given the increased production costs.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country on the map.

Low production expectation adds to food security concerns in countries already affected by high food prices and conflict

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, a rainfall deficit that started in February in central and eastern parts of the region persisted also in the first dekad of March in the eastern part of the region. Rainfall conditions have improved in many areas in the second dekad of March, but there is concern that the drought that affected many parts of the region between October and December 2021, the flooding and loss of croplands brought by Cyclones Ana and Gombe, and the dry spell of February 2022, will result in below-average levels of cereal production. In particular, reduced yields are expected in southern Angola, Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zambia and southern Madagascar. However, an above-average output is forecast in South Africa, as well as in Eswatini and Lesotho.

East Africa: East Africa is experiencing the impacts of one of the most severe droughts in recent history after three consecutive poor rainy seasons, particularly in large areas of Somalia, south and south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya. Many water points have dried up or diminished in quality, heightening the risk of water-borne diseases. Moreover, there is also an increasing concern that the region will experience the fourth consecutive poor rainfall season during March-May 2022 rains. Cumulated Copernicus C3S multi-model rainfall forecasts for April-June show a high probability of a drier than average period for the Horn and wetter than average conditions for South Sudan, Western Kenya, Ethiopian Highlands and Uganda. In March 2022 a slight delay in rainfall onset can be observed in Ethiopia’s Belg areas, in parts of Kenya and in Uganda, while rainfall has improved in Tanzania’s southern and central areas. The pressure on food security caused by the exceptionally prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa appears even more threatening with the increase in food prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many food importers in the region depend to a large extent on imports from Ukraine. Small scale farmers who were already facing challenges accessing farming inputs might see their access to fertiliser further curtailed by the reduced amounts available on international markets. According to FEWS NET (March 2022) estimates approximately 45-55 million people across the region (including Yemen) need humanitarian food and nutrition assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes between January and May 2022. In South Sudan, over 8.4 million people across the country are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC Phase 5). Major food security and humanitarian concerns continue in northern and southern Ethiopia due to ongoing conflict and drought respectively. Similar concerns apply to Somalia. Political instability in Sudan also exposes millions of people to the risk of food insecurity.

West and Central Africa: Land preparation and sowing activities for the first maize season are starting in the southern bimodal parts of the region along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea with the onset of seasonal rains in March. Rainfall conditions were average over the past month; however slightly below-average vegetation conditions are observed in southern Nigeria, Togo, Ghana and parts of Cote d’Ivoire. According to AGRHYMET, average to below-average rainfall amounts are expected for the March-May period, over south-western Cameroon, southern parts of Nigeria, Togo and Benin, south-eastern Ghana, south-western Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia. On the contrary, over north-western Sierra Leone and central western Guinea, rainfall totals are expected to be average to above-average. The same conditions are expected to continue over the April-June period. Persisting insecurity conditions, particularly in Liptako-Gourma and Lake Chad regions, are likely to hamper access to fields and limit the availability of labour and agricultural inputs (FAO). Conditions are difficult for pastoralists, as biomass deficits in some parts in the previous agricultural season, limited access to pasture and water, and limited livestock movements due to border closings and insecurity result in a lean period that will start earlier than usual (PREGEC communique-March 2022). The food security situation is very deteriorated in the region with about 38.3 million people forecast to be in crisis (CH Phase 3) and above by June August 2022 if no action is taken according to the latest CH analyses in March 2022 (PREGEC communique-March 2022).

North Africa: The winter cereal season in North Africa suffers from drought stress and rainfall in March came in most cases too late for crop recovery. In most of Morocco and parts of Algeria and Tunisia, cumulated seasonal rainfall remained clearly below-average, despite exceptional rainfall in mid-March. In Morocco and in western Algeria recovery of these crops is unlikely and reduced yields can be expected. A low winter wheat production in one or more countries in North Africa is of particular concern with the expected food price inflation linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For more information on 2022 yield forecasts in North Africa please also check the latest MARS bulletin for the region.

Middle East: In the Middle East, prospects for winter cereals are poor for the north of Syria (from Aleppo to Ninewa), the main cereals production area and north and east of Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk, Sulaymaniyah and Diyala). These poor prospects are the result of poor rainfall since autumn 2021 combined with poor socio-economic conditions in both countries, and, in Iraq, of a government’s decision to halve the area sown to irrigated crops to save reservoir water for human consumption. In contrast, in Iran biomass of winter crops is still close to average thanks to close to average precipitation since January. In Yemen, land preparation for sorghum to be sown in April-May is ongoing under favourable weather conditions. Because of the protracted conflict and the poor socio-economic conditions, the UN estimate that 17 million people will face acute food insecurity by May 2022. However, the cease-fire decided by both warring parties for the Ramadan period brings hope to end this seven-year conflict.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, rainfall improved in March and biomass of winter crops is close to or above-average thanks to above-average temperatures since December. With below-average rainfall forecast for the next 3 months, irrigation will be critical for winter and spring crops. In Afghanistan, thanks to improved rainfall in December-January and early March, biomass of winter cereals is close to average in most regions. However below-average rainfall forecast for the next three months is likely to hamper sowings and early growth of rainfed spring wheat. As regards food security, the socio-economic conditions remain very poor with an estimated 95% of the population suffering from insufficient food consumption. In South Asia, prospects remain very favourable for Rabi crops (winter cereals) and favourable for Boro rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively. In Sri Lanka, main season (Maha) rice and maize crops have been harvested with close to average biomass, however fertiliser and fuel shortages are likely to decrease production.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, conditions continue to be favourable for dry season rice and prospects are positive. In Indonesia, wet season rice planted from November to March is in good condition thanks to favourable rainfall.

Central America and Caribbean islands: In Central America, the harvest of third-season maize-beans (Apante-Postrera tardia) is concluded with average production for the region (FEWS NET (March 2022)), despite below-average seasonal rainfall accumulation in some parts of Honduras (Gracias a Dios, El Paraiso and Olancho) and Nicaragua (Rio San Juan and Atlántico Sur). The overall 2021 cereal production estimates from FAO-GIEWS (March 2022) are close to the 5-year average, with Honduras and Nicaragua slightly below. Compared to 2020, the total cereal output estimates are close to average for Guatemala (+2.2%), El Salvador (+0.7%), Honduras (-2%) and Nicaragua (+0.9). For Haiti, the total cereal output is estimated below the 5-year average due to poor rainfall last year. Land preparation has started for the main season in parts of Guatemala and Honduras. Meanwhile rice is in the growth stage in Nicaragua (irrigated-main) and in Honduras (second season). In Central America, the typically drier period favoured land preparation and harvest activities. In the Caribbean, the third season of maize-rice and sorghum harvest concluded in Haiti; and maize (second) and potato harvests are ongoing in Cuba. In Haiti, the sowing of maize-rice (main) season started, as well as the main season rice in Cuba; all under favourable conditions, except in parts of Cuba. In early March Haiti was affected by heavy rainfall in the northern areas causing flash floods (Floodlist, March 2022). In Central America, subsistence farmers are running out of food reserves and entering the lean period in April, increasing their market dependence for food and agricultural wages for livelihood. According to FEWS NET (March 2022) significant increases in the price of fuel resulted in elevated transportation costs and affected other commodities, which exacerbated food prices amid agricultural losses in the 2021 Primera and Postrera.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Drought lowers food production in parts of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa

Southern Africa: Rainfall in January in most parts of the region has helped to reduce seasonal moisture deficits and improved vegetation conditions. However, rainfall deficits remain in some parts and the impact of drought and heat stress on vegetation conditions is still evident in south-western Angola, north-western Namibia, northern and central Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar. According to FEWSNET, in southern Madagascar, which is stricken by drought for the third year in a row, more than 1.5 million people are in need of food assistance. A dry spell in the first two dekads of February has been affecting central parts of the region, such as Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Zambia and southern Mozambique. According to the Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast, wetter than average conditions are predicted for most parts of the region for March save for western and northern Angola, most parts of Mozambique and Madagascar, most of Zimbabwe, and central and southern Malawi. If the forecast materialises, production is likely to be reduced in the affected areas. South Africa, the largest maize producer in the region, has experienced generally good rainfall conditions to date and according to the Department of Agriculture, production of maize is forecast at an average level.

East Africa: In February, rainfall improved in Tanzania, partially relieving early season drought stress for the unimodal central and southern areas. Many of the bimodal areas in the Horn of Africa are now in the dry season and are still facing the negative effects of severe drought during the previous rainy season. Several areas in northern and coastal Kenya, southern and central Somalia and southern Ethiopia have experienced three consecutive severe droughts with a cumulative effect of decreased crop production, shortages of forage, depleted water supplies, and weakened and depleted livestock herds. Seasonal rainfall forecasts according to the Copernicus C3S Multimodel data are slightly wetter than normal for the period March to May, with the exception of central Ethiopia and North-West Somalia. The region is simultaneously dealing with rising prices for commodities (locally and globally) and with the loss of income from failed harvests and depleted livestock. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, in the first quarter of 2022, over 8.4 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and neighbouring western Afar and northern Amhara regions, as the conflict has continued spilling over into these areas. Political instability in Sudan exposes millions of people to the risk of food insecurity.

West and Central Africa: No relevant change since last month.

North Africa: The winter cereal season in North Africa continues to suffer from drought stress and rainfall has in most areas not improved in February. In most of Morocco and parts of Algeria and Tunisia, rainfed crops are exposed to major rainfall deficit, in many areas summing up to 50% of the cumulated seasonal rainfall. In Morocco and western Algeria recovery of these crops is unlikely and reduced yields can be expected. These countries which rely on wheat imports to meet their needs are now at stress with the rise of cereal prices. For more information on 2022 yield forecasts in North Africa please check the latest MARS bulletin for the region.

Middle East: In the Middle East, prospects for winter cereals are below average in the north of Syria (from Aleppo to Ninewa) and in the north and east of Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk, Sulaymaniyah and Diyala) as a result of poor rainfall in Syria and most likely poor socio-economic conditions in both countries since autumn 2021. In contrast in Iran, despite below-average rainfall in the last three months in most parts of the country, biomass of winter crops is still close to average. The situation needs to be monitored as below-average rainfall is forecast in the Middle East and Central Asia from March to May. In Yemen, land preparation for sorghum has started under favourable weather conditions. However, the protracted conflict and the poor socio-economic conditions are causing 16 million people to face acute hunger according to WFP.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, despite below-average rainfall in October-December, biomass of winter crops is close to or above average thanks to above-average temperatures since December. With below-average rainfall forecast for the next 3 months, irrigation will be critical for crop production. In Afghanistan, thanks to improved rainfall in December and January, biomass of winter cereals is close to average. However, below-average rainfall forecast for the next three months may hamper sowings and early growth of rainfed spring wheat. As regards food security, the socio-economic conditions remain very poor with 95% of the population suffering from insufficient food consumption. In South Asia, prospects remain favourable for Rabi crops (winter cereals) and Boro rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively. In Sri Lanka, harvest of main season (Maha) rice and maize crops has started with close to average prospects, the negative impact of the shortage of fertilisers being unclear.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental South-East Asia, dry season rice is growing under favourable conditions with an increased area with respect to 2021 in Thailand and Cambodia. In Indonesia, wet season rice planted from November to March is in good condition thanks to favourable rainfall.

Central America and Caribbean islands: The Postrera season harvest of maize and beans concluded with poor outputs in south-eastern Honduras and south-central Guatemala due to dry conditions early in the season. However, third season maize and bean crops are in the growth phase under generally favourable conditions, and harvest will initiate at the end of the period in some areas. Sowing of rice was concluded under mostly favourable conditions. In Cuba, rice (second) sowing was finalised, and maize (second) continued its growth phase under good conditions. In Haiti, the harvest of maize-rice (third) was completed with poor output due to prior severe dry conditions. Despite improvement in rainfall conditions during January and February in Haiti, torrential rains and strong winds during the first days of the month caused damage to river banks and flooding in 20 municipalities in the Nord, Nord-Est and Nippes departments (Floodlist, February 2022). Similarly in Honduras, heavy rains and strong winds affected the northern departments of Atlántida and Cortes causing damage to the Lean river bank, evacuations, housing and infrastructural damage (Floodlist, February 2022). Additionally, since the end of 2021 Central American countries have experienced increasing prices of basic grains (maize, bean, and rice), posing an additional burden to households' food security. This is influenced by lower production from the main season, increasing production costs from higher fuel and input prices, lower imports and higher international prices (FEWS NET, January 2022).

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Severe and recurrent drought in Eastern and parts of Southern Africa

Southern Africa: The 2021/2022 growing season in Southern Africa has been off to an irregular start, with delays in plantings extending across northern and central Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, south-eastern Zambia, and south-western Angola. The region is currently in the middle of the summer crop season and crop conditions are affected by drought stress in the aforementioned areas as cumulative rainfall amounts for the October-December period were well below-average, and high temperatures in December further exacerbated drought conditions in these areas. In some of these parts, rainfall improved in the first two dekads of January, with northern Mozambique, south-western Zambia, and northern Zimbabwe, registering well above-average levels. Also, in Madagascar heavy January rainfall benefited the delayed maize and rice crops, however poor conditions persist in the south. Although good rainfall amounts in January provided relief to drought stressed vegetation, rains will need to be sustained in the coming months for maize crops to reach maturity. Major cereal producing regions of South Africa, together with Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, and southern Mozambique have received well above-average rainfall amounts to date and crop conditions are favourable. Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecasts indicate drier than average conditions for most parts of the region in February and March (with the exception of South Africa, eastern Botswana and western Zimbabwe where wetter than average conditions are forecast for March). Continuous monitoring of the situation is necessary, especially for south-western Angola and Madagascar, that were severely hit by drought in the previous agricultural season. Heavy rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Ana on 22-25 January across central-northern Madagascar, northern Mozambique and southern Malawi caused rivers overflow, floods and landslides resulting in casualties and widespread damage (ECHO-26/01).

East Africa: At harvesting time the negative effects of severe drought are clearly visible in the southern bimodal part of the region, while agro-climatic conditions in the unimodal northern part of the region were generally better. Several areas in northern and coastal Kenya, southern and central Somalia and southern Ethiopia have experienced three consecutive droughts which resulted in decreased crop production, forage shortage, depleted water supplies, and weakened and depleted livestock herds. Second season crop production in north-east Tanzania has also been negatively affected by drought, while the start of season in unimodal areas of southern and central Tanzania has also suffered water stress. More than 20 million people in the region face the worst food security crisis risks in 35 years according to FEWSNET and Kenya and Somalia have declared national drought emergencies. The dire agricultural conditions have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and by violent regional conflicts. The region is simultaneously dealing with rising prices for commodities (locally and globally) and with the loss of income from failed harvests and depleted livestock. Consecutive below average agricultural production seasons, economic slowdowns together with prolonged conflicts, further raise the pressure on fragile agri-food systems and contribute to increase populations’ food insecurity and poverty. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, in the first quarter of 2022, over 8.4 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and neighbouring Western Afar and Northern Amhara regions, as the conflict has continued spilling over to these areas. Last, political instability in Sudan exposes millions of people to the risk of food insecurity. 

West and Central Africa: The main crop season has ended in the region and has generally performed well, with the aggregate production for Sahel and West Africa estimated at 3.2% above the 5-year average (PREGEC, Nov 2021). However, early cessation of rainfall and dry spells affected crop yields in some parts of the region. The largest declines were recorded for cereal production in Niger (-36%), Mauritania (-16%), Burkina Faso (-9.1%), Gambia (-8.5%), Mali (-6.5%) and Chad (-6.3%) (RPCA, Dec 2021). Insecurity and armed conflict continue affecting parts of the region, with livelihoods being severely disrupted in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-east Nigeria, north-central and north-west Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon (FEWSNET).

North Africa: After a delayed onset of rainfall, the winter cereal season in North Africa continues to suffer from drought stress. In most of Morocco and parts of Algeria and Tunisia, rainfed crops are exposed to major rainfall water deficit, in many totalling up to 50% of the cumulated seasonal rainfall. In addition, according to Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecasts there is a high probability for a continuation of below-average rainfall in February and March.

Middle East: In the Middle East, biomass of winter cereals is close to average except in the north-west of Syria (Aleppo) and east of Iraq (Sulaymaniyah) and rainfall is now forecast close to average in the next 3 months across most of the region. Yemen is now off season for cereals and despite favourable weather during the last crop season, 16 million people out of a 30 million population suffer from food insecurity due to conflict.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, despite below-average rainfall in October-December, biomass of winter crops is close to or above-average thanks to above-average temperatures since December. With below-average rainfall forecast for the next 3 months, irrigation will be critical for crop production. In Afghanistan, rainfall improved in most regions since December and snow pack and vegetation biomass are now close to average. However, rainfall is forecast below-average in the next 3 months and due to critical socio-economic conditions, a very large part of the population (up to 95%) suffers from food insecurity. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for Rabi crops (winter cereals) and Boro rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively. In Sri Lanka, moisture conditions are favourable for main season (Maha) rice and maize.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental South-East Asia, harvest of wet season rice ended in December in various countries with good prospects due to abundant seasonal rainfall. Planting and growth of dry season rice has started across the region under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvest of dry season rice ended in December with good prospects, while planting of wet season rice started in November with good moisture conditions.

Central America and Caribbean islands: Between December and January, the Central American countries are finishing maize and beans (second) harvest and initiate sowing of maize, beans (third) and rice. In the Caribbean, main maize harvest was finalized in Cuba and sowing of another cycle of maize and rice was completed in Haiti and Cuba. Improved agroclimatic conditions were observed in Haiti in January, however given the effects of prior dry periods, negative economic conditions, lingering effects of other natural hazards (tropical storm, and earthquakes) agriculture production remains challenging and food security precarious. In the first two dekads of January, below-average precipitation occurred in Colombia, eastern Bolivia, north Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. Despite improved rainfall in the second dekad of January, poor vegetation conditions persist across Haiti, parts of Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and parts of Colombia. According to recent WFP assessment in Honduras, subsistence farmers reported their main (Primera) maize and bean harvest was 50% below-average (IPC, Jan 2022). This and poor prospects for the second (Postrera) season due to prior dry conditions as well as lack of access to inputs will be detrimental to food security. According to recent IPC analysis 2.2 million people are in Crisis (IPC phase 3) or worse from all departments of Honduras, even after Primera harvest in September 2021 leaving household with low food reserves for December 2021-March 2022 (IPC, Jan 2022). Other contributing factors are Covid-19 socioeconomic impacts, high prices for food, inputs and fuel, as well as insufficient humanitarian assistance since 2020.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Third consecutive poor rainy season in the Horn of Africa

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, summer crops in most agricultural areas are in early vegetative development stages and rainfall performance has been mostly positive, benefiting land preparation and planting. Biomass conditions are average across most parts of the region, however below-average vegetation and rangeland conditions are observed in central and southern Angola and in most of Madagascar, from the central highlands to the far south and the west. Although early in the season, the situation should be closely monitored.

East Africa: Drought conditions continue to worsen in East Africa affecting in particular the southern and eastern parts of Ethiopia, most of Somalia, southern, coastal and central Kenya and north-eastern Tanzania. At this stage of the season, cumulated rainfall recovery is very unlikely increasing the risk of agricultural production failure. This is the third consecutive season of below-average production in coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia and pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia and Ethiopia are threatened by low water and pastures availability. Consecutive below-average agricultural production seasons, economic slowdowns together with prolonged conflicts, do further raise the pressure on fragile agri-food systems and contribute to increase populations’ food insecurity and poverty. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, during April-December 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and neighbouring Western Afar and Northern Amhara regions, as the conflict has continued spilling over to these areas.

West and Central Africa: Harvest of main season crops in the region is complete and production prospects are generally positive, thanks to average to above-average rainfall amounts during the productive period that supported agro-pastoral conditions in much of the region. According to the November PREGEC Communique, cereal production in the Sahel will be ca. 7% below the 5-year average, whereas in the Gulf of Guinea, production expectations are similar or slightly above the 5-year average. Localised crop production shortfalls are expected in parts of western Mali, western Senegal, south Chad and eastern Mauritania. Below-average yields are also expected in parts of the region affected by insecurity and civil conflict, such as in the Lake Chad region, northwest and central states of Nigeria and the tri-border area (i.e., Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger). The second maize season is progressing well in the Gulf of Guinea thanks to abundant and well-distributed rainfall.

North Africa: The onset of the winter cereal season is characterised by late onset and low amounts so far. At this time of the season, we are still in the planting window and there is room for improvement, but December rainfall will be crucial. However, C3S multi-model seasonal rainfall forecasts indicate a high probability of below-average rainfall especially in the western parts of the region including Morocco and north/western Algeria.

Middle East: In the Middle East, sowing of winter cereals is ongoing under drier than average conditions for the last month in Syria, south Iraq and most parts of Iran. It is early for any diagnosis on winter cereals growth and according to WMO forecast rainfall should remain below-average in Syria, northern Iraq and north-eastern Iran for the next 3 months. In Yemen, harvest of sorghum and wheat has been completed and production is expected to be below-average due to lack of input as a result of conflict and poor socio-economic conditions, despite favourable weather during the crop season.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter crops sowings have been finalised under below to slightly below-average rainfall conditions. According to the WMO forecast, drier than average conditions should persist for the next 3 months in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, two countries mostly relying on irrigation. In Afghanistan, only 50% of the usual area has been sown with winter wheat due to below-average rainfall in October and November according to the GEOGLAM report and poor socio economic conditions. A large part of 2022 wheat production now depends on spring wheat sowings. With below-average rainfall forecast for the next 3 months by WMO, the food security crisis which already affects nearly half of the population is likely to worsen. In South Asia, harvest of kharif (summer) crops and Aman rice is underway with good prospects, while sowings of Rabi wheat and Boro rice have started in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively. In Sri Lanka, main season (Maha) rice and maize have started with above-average rainfall.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, harvest of wet season rice is ongoing (or finishing in Cambodia) with good prospects due to abundant seasonal rainfall. Planting of dry season rice has started under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, prospects are also favourable for the ongoing harvest of dry season rice, while planting of wet season rice has started.

Central America and Caribbean islands: In November dry conditions affected parts of the region, particularly in eastern Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua. Haiti and Dominican Republic, while the small islands in the Caribe are severely affected. For north-eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, central Guatemala and most of Haiti negative water crop balance prevailed. This affected the Postrera maize and beans yields in parts of Central America (FEWSNET, November 2021, FAO, December, 2021). In this period, employment in agricultural activities and coffee harvest alleviated poor households’ food security in Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. However, in spite of these and recent main season harvest, the lingering effects of prior natural disasters (2020 hurricanes and recent earthquake) and economic shocks (high fuel, transport and food prices) are slowing recovery of households’ food security in both Central America and Haiti.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Delay in rainy season onset hits East Africa and is expected also in North Africa and Middle East

Southern Africa: Land preparation and planting of summer cereal crops are ongoing in the region, under close-to-average weather conditions, with an area of slight water deficit concentrated in parts of central and northern Angola. The SARCOF forecast points to average to above-average rainfall for most parts of the Southern Africa region; if this materialises, it will positively support planting activities and crop development. Below-average rainfall, however is predicted along the western coast, including parts of Angola and Namibia. Monitoring of the situation in the coming weeks is crucial. The harvest of winter wheat is ongoing in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and production prospects are positive.

East Africa: At the beginning of the short rains, the onset of the season is delayed by at least 20 days and seasonal rainfall forecasts point towards a below-average rainy season especially in Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and Eastern Kenya driven by the ongoing La Niña phenomenon. If the rainfall deficit continues to grow as predicted, this would lead to another crop failure in a region affected by protracted conflicts and which in the last 3 years has already experienced a series of droughts. In the northern part of the region and particularly in Sudan and in South Sudan, many farming areas have been affected by heavy floods in the last months. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, during April-December 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and neighbouring Western Afar and Northern Amhara regions, as the conflict has continued spilling over into these areas. Finally in Somalia, the number of the population at risk of acute food insecurity (phase 3 or worse and in the absence of humanitarian aid) is expected to increase from 2.2 million to 3.5 million.

West and Central Africa: Harvesting of 2021 is ongoing in the Sahelian countries. Despite rainfall deficits early and late in the season, with below-average rainfall amounts in the last 30 days in Mauritania, Gambia and south Senegal, production prospects are overall positive. Average to above-average rainfall amounts in the productive period supported agro-pastoral conditions in much of the region, except some localised crop production shortfalls in parts of western Mali, western Senegal, south Chad and eastern Mauritania. Pastoral activity is also affected in southern Mauritania and the Ferlo region of Senegal. Persisting insecurity and civil conflict in the Lake Chad region, north-west, and central states of Nigeria and the tri-border area (i.e. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) continue to hamper agro-pastoral activities in the region.

North Africa: Northern Africa shows a slight delay in the onset of the autumn-winter rainfall. This is not a problem at this early stage of the season, however the Copernicus C3S multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast also indicates a high probability of below average rainfall (for part of the area there is a high probability of the October-December cumulated rainfall being in the lowest 16% of the observed data).

Middle East: In the Middle East, sowing of winter cereals has started and there is some concern due to below-average rainfall forecast by WMO for November-January. Summer crops (rice in Iraq, rice and maize in Iran) have been harvested with average to good prospects except in the north-east of Iran probably due to shortage of irrigation water. In Yemen, harvest of sorghum and wheat is underway with favourable prospects but the food security crisis persists due to conflict and poor socio-economic conditions.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, sowing of winter crops started also with concerns regarding below-average rainfall for the next three months according to the WMO multimodel forecast. In Afghanistan, nearly half of the population is facing acute food insecurity due to a conjunction of factors: economic collapse aggravated by sanctions since the Taliban takeover, increased conflict in the first 9 months of the year and drought in the first half of the year in the west and north-west of the country. In South Asia, harvest of kharif (summer) crops is underway in Pakistan with average prospects; harvest of Aman rice in Bangladesh will start next month and prospects are favourable. In Sri Lanka, planting of main season rice has started with the arrival of the north-east monsoon.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, abundant seasonal rainfall has mainly favoured wet season rice production in all countries. In Indonesia, prospects are also favourable for dry season rice. In North Korea, rice has been harvested and prospects for both rice and maize are favourable due to above-average crop biomass throughout the season.

Central America and Caribbean islands: Harvesting of the 2021 primera season is almost completed and national production in Central America is anticipated at average level in most parts of the region due to favourable agro-climatic conditions throughout the season, except in localised parts. Postrera is ongoing and rainfall since mid-September has been below average. Crop conditions remain overall favourable according to remote sensing images, except in north-eastern Honduras (i.e., Olancho, Colón and Yoro) and parts of east Guatemala. Dryness persisted in most of Haiti and Cuba over the last 30 days. Below-average rains in the south of Haiti aggravated the deteriorated food security situation in regions of the south, which have also been hit by an earthquake and tropical storm Grace in mid-August. In addition, vegetation conditions have been negatively affected by dryness in northern Haiti.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Increasing food insecurity risk in Afghanistan; Poor spring wheat outlook in Kazakhstan

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa and aggregate cereal production is estimated at around 23% above the 5-year average and is a new record high for the region (FAO). Southern Madagascar faces the worst food and nutrition crisis in decades (see ASAP Special Focus). Towards the end of the winter cropping season, good vegetation conditions are observed for winter wheat in South Africa and positive production prospects are reported. In October, the region will begin preparations for 2021/2022 summer crop planting and the SARCOF forecast (Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum) points to average to above-average rainfall for most parts of the Southern Africa region (SADC).

East Africa: Most areas in East Africa have received above-average rainfall during the month, with the highest rainfall in northern Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan. The abundant rainfall in high levels of transboundary rivers has continued the flooding in southeastern Sudan and south-central South Sudan, while relieving dry conditions across Uganda and causing flooding in eastern Uganda. However, in the southern part of the region, seasonal rainfall distribution has been quite irregular, and parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya and southern Somalia are reaching the end of the first crop season with below-average production outlooks due to irregular rainfall distribution. In coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia, this is the second consecutive season of below-average production. Pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia and Ethiopia have also been affected by rainfall deficits and consequent low water and pasture availability. The seasonal precipitation forecast of the Copernicus C3S multimodel shows a slight probability of below-average rainfall for October-November in Somalia, eastern Kenya and south/western Ethiopia and even a limited probability of a dry season represents a serious risk in a region that has experienced consecutive droughts. Consecutive seasons of below-average agricultural production, economic slowdowns together with the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a reduced inflow of remittances and floods in some areas, increase the risk of poverty and food insecurity for already vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, between April-December 2021, more than 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including more than 100 000 at catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and the neighbouring western Afar and northern Amhara regions, as the conflict has continued to spill over into these areas.

West and Central Africa: Cereal production for the 2021 season is overall favourable in West Africa due to average to above-average rainfall throughout the season. According to the FAO, aggregate cereal production is forecast at around 74 million tons, slightly above the previous 5-year average. However, heavy rains triggered localised flooding in southern Chad, parts of Niger and north of Nigeria. On the other hand, rainfall deficits and early dryness resulted in localised crop production shortfalls in parts of Mali, Chad, Benin, Senegal and Nigeria. The pastoral season is progressing under favourable conditions, except in southern Mauritania, Mali, east Chad and in the Ferlo region of Senegal. Persistent insecurity and civil conflict in the Lac Chad regions, northeast Nigeria and the tri-border area (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) continue to hamper agro-pastoral activities in the region.

North Africa: The region is generally out of season. Winter cereal yields were significantly below average in Algeria (ASAP Special Focus), whereas in Morocco and Tunisia national production was close to average/above average, despite localised drought in north-east Morocco and central/southern Tunisia (areas producing around 5% of the national cereal production).

Middle East: In the Middle East, prospects are favourable for irrigated summer crops (rice and maize) in Iraq (Qadissiya and Najaf) and Iran, except for in a few provinces (Golestan, Khorasan and Esfahan in Iran, Diyala in Iraq) probably due to the shortage of irrigation water. In Yemen, despite favourable rainfall for sorghum and wheat harvested from September to November, the food security crisis persists due to conflict and poor socio-economic conditions.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects for spring wheat (in Kyrgyzstan) and irrigated summer crops are mixed: they are average to above-average in Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, most of Turkmenistan (with the exception of Mary) and below average in northern Kyrgyzstan and south-central of Uzbekistan (from Surkhandarya to Tashkent). In Kazakhstan, spring wheat has been harvested in September with below-average output due to the drought affecting the country since the start of the season. In Afghanistan, prospects for spring wheat and irrigated summer crops are favourable except in the northwest (from Hirat to Jawzjan) due to a lack of irrigation water. Nevertheless, following the Taliban takeover, the economic and food security situation are expected to worsen. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for kharif (summer) crops and Aman rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively, as well as for Yala-season rice and maize recently harvested in Sri Lanka.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental Southeast Asia, the first harvest of and prospects for wet season rice are average to good thanks to favourable moisture conditions. In Indonesia, irrigated dry season rice is also in good condition. In North Korea, prospects are also favourable for rice and maize crops harvested in September and October.

Central America and Caribbean islands: Harvesting of the primera is almost finished in Central America with favourable production prospects in most parts of the region, reflecting positive soil moisture levels and adequate rain throughout the season. However, some localised crop losses have occurred in eastern Honduras (i.e. Olancho, El Paraíso and Colon) and northwestern Nicaragua (i.e. Nueva Segovia and Madriz) where the rains arrived too late to reverse early dryness. Furthermore, abundant rainfall in southern Guatemala triggered floods and resulted in localised crop losses. The postrera season has just started. In Haiti, the second minor maize and the main rice crops have been hampered by persistent dryness in the north and the impact of an earthquake, followed by Tropical Storm Grace in mid-August in the south. As a result, food security has deteriorated in the area.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Flooding in West and East Africa; Below-average winter cereal production in Central Asia

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa and aggregate cereal production is estimated above the 5-year average and a new record high for the region (FAO). In contrast, southern Madagascar faces the worst food and nutrition crisis to hit the region in decades (MSF), with over 1.14 million people being severely food insecure for the period April-September 2021 (OCHA). Winter wheat planting has been completed in South Africa and planting regions in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and conditions are good at this stage.

East Africa: The northern part of the region has received above-average rainfall in July and August with areas of clear surplus in northern Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan. The abundant rainfall in high levels of transboundary rivers has led to floods in Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, as well as along the Shabelle river basin in Somalia. However, in the southern part of the region, seasonal rainfall distribution has been quite irregular and parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya and southern Somalia are reaching the end of the first crop season with below-average production outlooks due to irregular rainfall distribution. In coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia, this is the second consecutive season of below-average production. Pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia and Ethiopia have also been affected by rainfall deficits and consequent low water and pasture availability. Consecutive below-average agricultural production seasons, economic slowdowns and the impact of COVID-19, as well as a reduced remittances inflow and floods in some areas, increase the risk of poverty and food insecurity for already vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, during April-December 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at Catastrophe-level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in Tigray and neighbouring Western Afar and Northern Amhara regions, as the conflict is spilling over to these areas.

West and Central Africa: First season maize harvest is ongoing in the southern parts of the Gulf of Guinea with close to average harvests, whereas harvest of coarse grains in the northern parts will start in late September. The rainy season so far in the region has been characterised by variable conditions. Improved rainfall amounts were registered in the last month over most parts of the region, however below-average vegetation conditions persist in the central belt and northern parts of Nigeria and northern Benin. Heavy rainfall in August has resulted in floods in Nigeria, Ghana, Niger and Cameroon. Insecurity and armed conflict continue to hamper agricultural activities in the Great Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-west and north-central Nigeria.

North Africa: The region is generally out of season. Winter cereal yields were significantly below-average in Algeria (ASAP Special Focus), whereas in Morocco and Tunisia national production was close to average/above-average, despite localised drought in north-east Morocco and central/southern Tunisia (areas producing around 5% of the national cereal production).

Middle East: In the Middle East, winter cereals have been harvested with below-average prospects in the north of Syria and Iraq, in particular Hassakeh and Ninewa, and in north-east and central-south Iran as a result of the dry conditions since last autumn and the heat wave since April. Irrigated summer crops are now growing with close to average biomass in Iran (except Esfahan where the irrigated area is below average) and above-average biomass in Iraq. In Yemen, rainfall has been favourable for sorghum and wheat as well as desert locust small scale breeding; however, conflict and economic decline remain the main drivers of the protracted food security crisis affecting the country since 2017.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter cereals output is expected to be below average in the western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya), most of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary, Ahal), northern Kyrgyzstan (Chuy and Talas) as well as southern Kazakhstan (from Yujno K to Almatinskaya). In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, this situation is the result of erratic temperatures (cold in winter and high since end April/early May with record highs in early June and early July), low rainfall since January (March excepted) and possibly reduced irrigation water, while in Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakhstan winter cereals have below average biomass possibly because of a sudden temperature drop in February, low rainfall since April compounded by record high temperatures in early June and early July. In contrast, in Tajikistan, prospects for winter cereals are close to average. In Kazakhstan, prospects for spring wheat are clearly below average due to the dry conditions since mid-March in the main producing oblasts (Severo, Kustanayskaya and Akmolinskaya). In Afghanistan, conditions of spring wheat and summer crops are close to or above-average in all regions except in the northwest (from Nimroz to Jawzjan) where lack of irrigation water has reduced the cultivated area. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for kharif (summer) crops and Aman rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively, as well as for Yala season rice and maize in Sri Lanka.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, wet season rice is in good condition despite below average rainfall in western Cambodia, parts of southern Laos or central-east Thailand. In Indonesia, irrigated dry season rice is also in good condition. In North Korea, biomass of rice and maize crops is good despite low rainfall in the last month in the south of the rice bowl area (western part of Korea). In the east (South and North Hamgyong), heavy rainfall in early August caused flooding and mainly damage to infrastructure.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the primera season is ongoing in Central America under favourable conditions, in spite of variable weather conditions throughout the season. Maize and bean crops are average to above average due to positive soil moisture levels at the beginning of the season, with the exception of some parts of Honduras (Olancho and Paraiso) and Guatemala (Peten). In Cuba, rice and maize development is progressing under favourable conditions, in spite of some rainfall deficits in August. There is concern in Haiti due to dry conditions in the north of the country as well as in areas of the south hit by an earthquake of 7.2 magnitude followed by heavy rains and flash floods.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Drought in the Middle East and Central Asia; Poor first crop output in the Horn of Africa

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region, the harvest of the main agricultural season has been completed. Aggregate cereal production in 2021 is estimated at 40.6 million tonnes, 22% above the 5-year average and a new record high for the region (FAO). The favourable production output reflects the good agrometeorological conditions experienced in most parts of the region throughout the 2020/2021 agricultural season. Both of the region’s leading maize suppliers, South Africa and Zambia, are expecting bumper maize harvests (30% and 25% above the 5-year average, respectively). In Zimbabwe, cereal production is expected to see a significant recovery after two consecutive years of weather-reduced outputs. However, conflict in northern Mozambique and drought-driven diminished cereal output in south-western Angola and southern Madagascar are the main drivers of food insecurity in the affected areas in these countries. In southern Madagascar, 1.14 million people are food insecure and the number of people at Catastrophe level (IPC Phase 5) risks doubling to 28,000 by October (RELIEFWEB). Good pastoral conditions throughout the season are expected to support livestock production in most countries, except for north-western parts of Namibia (mainly Kunene) and southern Angola. Conditions are good for winter wheat in the Western Cape of South Africa, and the area planted is close to the 5-year average according to preliminary estimates.

East Africa: July has seen a good start to the main season in the northern part of the region, including Sudan and most of Ethiopia. Abundant rainfall has led to floods in South Sudan and Uganda, and rainfall distribution has been quite irregular throughout the current season, especially in Uganda. Parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya and southern Somalia are reaching the end of the first crop season with below-average production outlooks, due to irregular rainfall distribution. In coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia, this is the second consecutive season of below-average production. Pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia, and Ethiopia have also been affected by rainfall deficits and consequent low availability of water and pasture. Consecutive seasons of below-average agricultural production, economic slowdowns, the impact of COVID-19 and a reduced inflow of remittances are increasing the risk of poverty and food insecurity for already vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, between April and December 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at Catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in the Tigray region, as increasing insecurity in neighbouring Afar is limiting humanitarian access.

West and Central Africa: Thanks to a timely onset of rains in March, biomass conditions of main season maize, to be harvested in August, are good in the southern bi-modal areas. Below-average vegetation conditions persist in the central belt and northern parts of Nigeria and in northern Benin and northern Togo. Rainfall in the Sahelian belt has been average to below average since late June, resulting in a slight deterioration of crop conditions in parts of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, western Niger, southern Chad and southern Mali. However, there is still time for improvement at this early stage of the season, if positive rains occur in the coming weeks. According to the June Update of the PRESASS 2021 seasonal forecast, average to above-average seasonal rainfall (in June-August 2021) is expected over most of the Sahelian and Sudanian belt, except for the coastal areas of southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone (WFP). The persisting insecurity and armed conflicts continue to drive massive population movements in the region, particularly affecting access to and operation of markets in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria (FEWSNET).

North Africa: At the end of the season for winter cereals in North Africa, Algeria is at the centre of a region that experienced unfavourable production conditions. In Algeria, national yields were predicted in June to be 20%, 30% and 40% below-average for durum wheat, soft wheat and barley (ASAP Special Focus), respectively, while in the north-east of Morocco and central areas of Tunisia, only areas producing around 5% of national cereal production are affected by below-average yield.

Middle East: In the Middle East, output of winter cereals is expected to be poor in the north of Syria and Iraq, in particular Hassakeh and Ninewa, and below average in the north-east and centre-south of Iran, as a result of the dry conditions since last autumn and the heatwave since April. In fact, this season (from 1 October to 20 July) is the warmest, and second or third driest, in the last 30 years for the northern provinces of Syria (Hassakeh, Raqqa), north-western Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk), and centre-south Iran (Esfahan, Yazd, Fars, Kerman). In contrast, prospects are average to above average for southern Syria, southern Iraq and north-western Iran. In Yemen, weather conditions have been close to average for sorghum and wheat; conflict and economic decline remain the main drivers of the protracted food security crisis affecting the country since 2017.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter cereal production is expected to be below average in the western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya) and in most of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary, Ahal). This is as a result of erratic temperatures – low between mid-November and 10 January, and high since late April/early May with record highs in early June and early July – combined with low rainfall since January (with the exception of March) and possibly reduced irrigation water. In Kazakhstan, dry conditions since April have started to impact spring cereals in the main producing regions of the north, reducing prospects for the main output of the country. In Kyrgyzstan (Chuy and Talas), as well as southern Kazakhstan (from Yujno-Kazachstanskaya to Almatinskaya), prospects are also below average for the output of winter cereals. This may be the result of a sudden temperature drop in February and low rainfall since April, compounded by record high temperatures in early June and early July. Only in Tajikistan are prospects for cereals close to average. In Afghanistan, conditions are mixed for winter cereals, with close to average output across all regions except the north-west. The dry conditions prevailing since January (with the exception of March) are likely to reduce water availability for spring and summer crops. In South Asia, conditions are favourable for planting and growth of kharif (summer) crops in Pakistan and Aman rice in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, yala season rice and maize are in good condition.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, moisture conditions have been favourable for wet season rice across the region. In central Thailand and Cambodia, after a wet April and average May, June has been drier than average but July rainfall has been average to above average. In north Vietnam, the harvest of dry season rice has been completed with good prospects and planting of main season rice has started. In Indonesia, the harvest of wet season rice has been completed with good prospects and planting of dry season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for wet season crops. In North Korea, with average to above-average rainfall and temperatures over the last 3 months, weather conditions have been favourable for maize and rice crops.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season for maize and bean crops is ongoing in Central America. Despite irregular rains – with spells of both above-average and below-average rains since mid-May – overall conditions are favourable and crop development benefited from positive rains early in the season and high soil moisture levels. However, in some parts of north-eastern Nicaragua (Nueva Segovia, Madriz) and southern Honduras (El Paraiso, Olancho, Francisco Morazan), rains received at the beginning of July were too late to reverse crop conditions, which remain below average. Crop conditions in Cuba are favourable overall, supported by abundant rains brought by Tropical Storm Elsa at the beginning of July. Southern Haiti has also benefited from Elsa, while the rest of the country has experienced dry conditions in the last month. However, vegetation conditions remain average.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Persistent drought conditions in West Africa; poor main rainy season in East Africa

Southern Africa: As harvest is nearing completion for the main crop season, preliminary reports suggest favourable production prospects in most parts of the region, reflecting the good agrometeorological conditions throughout the 2020/2021 agricultural season. Both of the region’s leading maize suppliers – South Africa and Zambia – are expecting bumper harvests (30% and 25% above the 5-year average, respectively). In Zimbabwe, cereal production is expected to see a significant recovery after two consecutive years of weather-reduced outputs. In contrast, drought-driven diminished cereal output is expected in south-western Angola and southern Madagascar, as are poor pastoral conditions in north-western Namibia. Additionally, conflict remains a major driver of food insecurity in northern Mozambique.

East Africa: April to June is the main rainy season in the Horn of Africa; it was characterised by generally irregular rainfall distribution over time, and rainfall deficits in some areas. The main deficit areas are located in coastal Kenya and southern Somalia, while abundant rainfall in April/May followed by early cessation is causing concern in parts of Ethiopia, Uganda and South Sudan. The irregular and below-average rainfall has led to crop failure in coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia, where this is the second consecutive season of below-average production. Pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia, and Ethiopia are also affected by rainfall deficits and consequent low availability of water and pasture. Consecutive seasons of below-average agricultural production, economic slowdowns, the impact of COVID-19 and a reduced inflow of remittances are increasing the risk of poverty and food insecurity for already vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to the recent appeal by WFP and FAO, between April and July 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5).

West and Central Africa: Crop conditions are good in the southern bi-modal parts of the region; however, below-average rainfall in some parts of the Gulf of Guinea has led to abnormal dryness and below-average vegetation conditions. A delayed start to the season and below-average crop conditions were observed in June in the central belt and in north-eastern regions of Nigeria. However, it is still too early in the season to tell whether this will have a negative impact on seasonal production. Early season drought is also affecting agricultural vegetation in northern Ghana, northern Benin and northern Togo. According to the PREGEC meeting held in June, “in agro-pastoral areas, livestock mobility is disrupted because of security problems; cross-border transhumance towards coastal countries (Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) also remains disturbed, leading to high concentrations and overexploitation of pastoral resources available in accessible areas”. According to the PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above-average precipitation is expected in the central Sahel, northern Central African Republic, northern Cameroon and northern Gulf of Guinea countries in the period June-August, whereas average to below-average precipitation is very likely from Senegal to Sierra Leone and in southern Gulf of Guinea countries and coastal areas of Cameroon in the same period. Between June and August 2021, 31 million people are projected to be in acute need of food assistance – a 28% increase from last year – due to a combination of factors such as chronic poverty, worsening violence and conflict, increased food prices, and an overall weakened regional macro-economic situation due to the COVID-19 restrictions from last year (WFP).

North Africa: At the end of the season for winter cereals in North Africa, Algeria is at the centre of a region that experienced unfavourable production conditions. In Algeria, national yields are predicted to be up to 40% below average (barley), while in the north-east of Morocco and central areas of Tunisia, only areas producing around 5% of national production are affected by below-average yield.

Middle East: In the Middle East, conditions are mixed for winter cereals. A poor harvest is expected in the north of Syria and Iraq, in particular in Hassakeh and Ninewa, as well as in the north-east and centre-south of Iran, as a result of the dry conditions since last autumn and the high temperatures since April. In contrast, prospects are average to above-average for southern Syria, southern Iraq and north-western Iran. In Yemen, rainfall conditions have been close to average for sorghum; conflict and economic decline remain the main drivers of the lingering food security crisis affecting the country since 2017.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter cereal production is expected to be below average in the western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya) and in most of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary, Ahal). This is as a result of cold temperatures between mid-November and 10 January, low rainfall since January (with the exception of March) and possibly reduced irrigation water, and high temperatures since April-May. In Kazakhstan, dry conditions since April have started to slow the growth of spring cereals in the main producing regions of the north, reducing harvest prospects. In Kyrgyzstan, prospects for cereal harvests are also below average in Chuy, the main producing area, possibly as a result of a sudden temperature drop in February and low rainfall in April- May. Only in Tajikistan do cereal conditions appear to be close to average. In Afghanistan, conditions are mixed for winter cereals, with below-average production expected in the north-west and close-to-average production in the rest of the country. The dry conditions prevailing since January (with the exception of March) are likely to reduce water availability for spring and summer crops. In South Asia, prospects are average to good for the harvest of winter cereals in Pakistan, and conditions are favourable for planting of kharif (summer) crops in Pakistan and Aman rice in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, abundant rainfall has been favourable for recently planted yala season rice and maize.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, moisture conditions are favourable for the start of wet season rice; in fact rice has been planted earlier than in 2020 in some regions of Thailand, Cambodia and Laos, thanks to good April rainfall. In north Vietnam, the harvest of dry season rice has started with good prospects. In Indonesia, the harvest of wet season rice is finishing with favourable prospects, and the planting of dry season rice has started. In the Philippines, wet season rice planting has started in the north, after some delay due to low rainfall in April-May, while abundant rainfall has benefitted rice planted in April-May in the centre and south. In North Korea, average to above-average rainfall and temperatures in the last three months have been favourable for recently planted maize and rice crops.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Drought conditions with below-average rains persisted from mid-May to early June in Central America. Rainfall in the second dekad of June was mixed, with below-average rainfall in southern Guatemala, western El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua, whilst the rest of the area received above-average rains. However, vegetation conditions appear close to average, with the exception of southern Honduras and north-western Nicaragua, where erratic rains left visible effects on the NDVI.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Reduced winter crops harvest in parts of the Maghreb, the Middle-East and Central Asia

Southern Africa: At the time of harvest for main season cereal crops, production prospects are generally favourable in most parts of the region, reflecting the good agrometeorological conditions throughout the 2020/2021 agricultural season. Particularly good harvests are expected in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi. The good rainfall conditions were also beneficial to pasture and livestock conditions in most of the countries of the region. However, a drought-driven diminished cereal output and poor pastoral production are expected in south-western Angola, north-western Namibia and southern Madagascar. Additionally, conflict remains a major driver of food insecurity in northern Mozambique.

East Africa: Since early May 2021, several East African countries have received intensive rainfall which caused localised floods and landslides. However, the cumulated seasonal rainfall in many crop areas remains below average due to early season dry conditions, increasing the likelihood of below average crop production. The combination of below-average agricultural production with the negative impacts and economic slowdown due to COVID-19, as well as reduced remittance inflows, increase the risk of poverty and food insecurity for vulnerable populations. Parts of Somalia, Eastern Kenya and parts of Eastern Ethiopia are suffering abnormal dry conditions in pastoral areas, which will further worsen in case of early April-June rainfall cessation. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent WFP and FAO appeal, during April-July 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5).

West and Central Africa: First season maize crop conditions are generally favourable in the southern bi-modal parts of the region. However, over the last month, rainfall deficits have been increasing in many parts of the Gulf of Guinea. A rainfall deficit in April/May is showing its first impacts on vegetation and possible delays in planting in Nigeria, Ghana and Benin. Ongoing armed conflicts and civil insecurity remain a challenge in the region, mainly in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako Gourma area and north of Nigeria.

North Africa: Around harvest, the winter crop season outlook in North Africa is generally positive for Morocco and Tunisia, while the expected yield in Algeria is both below the 5-year average and below last year, which was already a bad year. In particular, in western and in parts of central Algeria, as well as in north-eastern Morocco, persistent drought conditions since the beginning of the winter crop season have led to clearly below average yield expectations. In south-western Tunisia, barley conditions are also below average due to early and mid-season dry conditions.

Middle East: In the Middle East, harvest of winter cereals is expected to drop strongly in the north of Syria and Iraq, particularly in the main producing regions of Hassakeh and Ninewa, but also in Aleppo and Raqqa in Syria and Erbil and Dahuk in Iraq, as a result of dry conditions from the start of the season. Moreover, since early April temperatures above average by 5-6°C and low rainfall have accelerated cereals senescence, which negatively impacts yield. In contrast, in the south of the two countries, prospects for the winter cereals harvest are good. In Iran, which has also been affected by the heatwave and below average rainfall in most regions since early April, conditions of winter cereals are mixed with below-average harvest expected in the north-east, the centre-west (e.g. Lorestan) for rainfed crops and some parts of the south due to limited irrigation water (e.g. Fars) and favourable prospects in the north-west and the north. In Yemen, weather conditions have been favourable for the start of sorghum; however the food security crisis remains determined by conflict and economic decline.

Central and South Asia: in Central Asia, winter cereals production is expected to be below average in the eastern half of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary, Ahal), western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya), as a result of cold temperatures in winter, dry conditions since January (except for March) and probably reduced irrigation water. In northern Kazakhstan, after a delayed start of season due to late snow melt, spring crops have caught up with normal growth. In contrast, in the south winter crops biomass has been below average since mid-March as is the case in northern Kyrgyzstan (Chuy and Talas). In the rest of the region (south Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) cereals conditions are close to average. In the north-west of Afghanistan, from Hirat to Jawzjan, winter cereals biomass is below average while crop condition is average to good in the north and east. Moreover, as a result of poor rainfall since January (except for March), irrigation water is likely to be missing for spring wheat sown in March-April and recently sown summer crops (maize, rice). In South Asia, the harvest of winter cereals in Pakistan and irrigated Boro rice in Bangladesh is finishing with good prospects and sowing of summer (kharif) crops in Pakistan and planting of monsoon Aman rice in Bangladesh is starting. In Sri Lanka, rainfall conditions are favourable for the start of the second Yala season rice and maize in the west and south of the island.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, dry season rice harvest is finishing with good prospects in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, south Vietnam and planting of wet season rice has started. In north Vietnam, dry season rice growth is progressing under favourable conditions. In Indonesia and the Philippines, harvest of wet and dry season rice respectively is finishing and prospects are favourable thanks to abundant rainfall since October. In both countries, planting of dry and wet season rice respectively has started, with below average rainfall in Java and north Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Despite rainfall deficits in May, planting of the primera season in Central America and development of spring crops in Haiti is ongoing under favourable conditions thanks to abundant rainfall received in previous months. The situation in Cuba should be monitored carefully in the following weeks because rainfall deficits also in May resulted in below-average vegetation conditions.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Drought in East Africa and Afghanistan expected to worsen existing food crises

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season is ending, with the harvest of summer crops starting in April. Production prospects are favourable, thanks to generally good agrometeorological conditions throughout the 2020/2021 agricultural season in most parts of the region. The good rainfall amounts were also beneficial to pasture and livestock conditions in most countries of the region. However, diminished cereal output and poor pastoral production due to drought are expected in south-western Angola, north-western Namibia and southern Madagascar. 

East Africa: The start of the April-June rainy season — important for parts of agricultural and pastoral areas in the region — has so far been delayed and irregular. There is a clear early-season rainfall deficit in agricultural areas of central and southern Ethiopia, coastal and southern Kenya, and parts of northern Uganda. In these areas, recovery of vegetation depends on improved rainfall conditions in May. Moreover, pastoral vegetation in parts of Somalia, northern and southern drylands of Kenya, and south-eastern and Rift Valley areas of Ethiopia is negatively impacted by dry conditions that have persisted since late 2020. A combination of irregular rainfall, conflict and insecurity, rising food prices and negative effects of COVID-19 on socioeconomic conditions are intensifying the risks of poverty and food insecurity for very poor and vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, which is currently out of the main crop season, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent WFP and FAO appeal, between April and July, over 7 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC5).

West and Central Africa: A timely onset of rainfall in March has supported main season maize-planting activities, which are ongoing in the southern parts of the countries along the Gulf of Guinea. A rainfall deficit in the first dekads of April, coupled with above-average temperatures, has resulted in slightly below-average vegetation conditions in parts of Ghana, Benin and Nigeria, but it is still very early in the season to draw conclusions. Ongoing armed conflicts and civil insecurity remain a challenge in the area, mainly in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako Gourma area and northern Nigeria. As a result, food insecurity in the Sahel has reached unprecedented levels, with 18.2 million people requiring food and nutrition assistance. This is projected to increase to up to 24 million people by June-August 2021, according to the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis.

North Africa: Close to harvest, the outlook for the winter crop season in North Africa is generally positive for Morocco and Tunisia, while the expected yield in Algeria is both below the 5-year average and below last year, which was already a bad year. Particularly in western and parts of central Algeria, as well as in north-eastern Morocco, persistent drought conditions since the beginning of the winter crop season have led to distinctly below-average yield expectations.

Middle East: In the Middle East, the condition of winter cereals is mixed. While prospects are favourable for southern Syria, southern Iraq and western Iran, in the north of Syria and Iraq and south and east of Iran, winter cereal production is expected to be below average as a result of dry conditions from the start of the season. Especially in Hassakeh (north-eastern Syria) and Ninewa (north-western Iraq), rainfed cereal production is expected to drop significantly, due to failed crops in many areas. In Yemen, sorghum has been sown under close-to-average rainfall conditions in western coastal areas, i.e. the main producing areas. However, conflict and economic decline are still the main drivers of the lingering food security crisis affecting the country since 2017.

Central and South Asia: in Central Asia, winter cereal production is expected to be reduced in the western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya), most of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary and Ahal) and in north-western Afghanistan (Faryab, Jawzjan). This is a result of cold temperatures between mid-November and 10 January, dry conditions in January-February and again in April, and possibly reduced irrigation water. In northern Kazakhstan, the snow melted two weeks later than in 2020, which delayed sowing of spring cereals. In the rest of the region (Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), cereal conditions are close to average. In Afghanistan, conditions are mixed as a result of prevailing below-average rainfall since the start of the year. In the north-west, winter cereal production is expected to be below average despite the rainfall in March, while it should be close to average in the east. In South Asia, prospects are average to good for the ongoing harvest of winter cereals in Pakistan and for irrigated Boro rice to be harvested in May in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, planting of Yala season rice and maize has started under favourable conditions.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, prospects are good for dry season rice, whether the harvest is close to finishing (Myanmar, Cambodia, south Vietnam), in progress (Thailand) or about to start (Laos), or where paddy rice is still in its vegetative stage (north Vietnam). In Indonesia and the Philippines, the harvest of wet and dry season rice (respectively) is ongoing and prospects are favourable thanks to abundant rainfall since October. In Indonesia, planting of dry season rice has started.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Land preparation for the primera season is ongoing in Central America under favourable conditions, due to abundant rains that benefited soil moisture levels and supported early sowing in some parts of the region. Planting of 2021 spring season maize and bean crops is ongoing in Haiti under favourable weather conditions.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

Bumper harvest in Southern Africa, but high acute food insecurity risk in many African countries

Southern Africa: The main cereal season is progressing well in most parts of the region and a bumper cereal harvest is expected for most countries (South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Botswana), thanks to the favourable weather conditions throughout the season that have been supporting crop growth. Similarly, rangeland conditions are faring well across most parts of the region. However, persistent drought conditions have deteriorated crop and rangeland conditions in south-western Angola, north-western Namibia and southern Madagascar. As a result, a diminished cereal output and poor pastoral production are expected in the affected areas.   

East Africa: Most countries experienced mixed production outcomes during the second season ending in early 2021 and seasonal weather forecasts for the April-June rainy season are again not very favourable. The combination of below-average agricultural production with the negative impacts and economic slowdown due to COVID-19, as well as a reduced inflow of remittances, are increasing the risk of poverty and food insecurity for vulnerable populations. Most of Somalia, eastern Kenya and parts of eastern Ethiopia are suffering abnormally dry conditions in pastoral areas, which will require a timely and consistent April-June rainy season to recover. In South Sudan, which is currently out of the main crop season, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to the recent WFP and FAO appeal, from April to July 2021, over 7 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at catastrophe level (IPC Phase 5). 

West and Central Africa: Land preparation and sowing activities for the first maize season are starting in the southern bimodal parts of the region. Rainfall conditions were average over the past month; however, due to above-average temperatures, vegetation activity is slightly below average in southern Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana. The pattern of seasonal rainfall will most likely have no impact on the situation. In central and northern Burkina Faso, northern Cameroon, Liptako Gourma, the Lac region in Chad and north-eastern Nigeria, persisting conflict and civil insecurity continue to disrupt agricultural activities, limiting access to inputs and lands.

North Africa: Crop conditions continue to be favourable in most parts of Morocco, Tunisia and north-eastern Algeria thanks to abundant rainfall and mild winter temperatures. By contrast, in western and central Algeria, as well as in north-eastern Morocco, persistent drought conditions since the beginning of the winter crop seasons are making below-average yields very likely.  

Middle East: In the Middle East, winter cereals are in good condition except in north-eastern Syria (Hassakeh) and north-western Iraq (Ninewa). In these areas, winter cereal production is expected to drop with respect to 2020, probably due to failed sowings. The area sown with winter cereals appears significantly reduced with respect to the previous year. In Yemen, more than 50% of the population (16 out of 30 million people) is expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity by June 2021 as a result of conflict and economic decline, according to FAO. With regard to cropping activities, land has been prepared for sowings of sorghum in April.

Central and South Asia: in Central Asia, winter cereals show below-average biomass levels and a significant decrease in winter cereal production is expected in a region centred around Uzbekistan (Navoiy, Samarkand and up to Sidarya) and including northern Turkmenistan (Lebap) and north-western Afghanistan (Jawzjan). In the rest of the region (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan), cereal conditions are close to average. In Afghanistan, winter cereal conditions are close to average throughout the country except the north-west, despite the rainfall deficit in January and February. In South Asia, in Pakistan warm temperatures are boosting maturation of rabi crops and prospects for the harvest of winter cereals are favourable throughout the country, even in the north-western regions affected by dry conditions in January and February. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, prospects are good for dry season irrigated Boro rice (to be harvested in May) and recently harvested main season Maha rice and corn. Meanwhile in Nepal, biomass levels of wheat sown from mid-October to mid-December are close to average.  

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, conditions are favourable for dry season rice in Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. In Thailand, the planted rice area has increased with respect to 2020; however, in a few provinces it is lower than average (and 2018) as a result of a shortage of irrigation water. In Indonesia and the Philippines, abundant rainfall since October has been favourable for wet and dry season rice, respectively.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of apante season is ongoing under favourable conditions, due to average to above-average rains that benefited crop development in central Nicaragua (Matagalpa and Jinotega) and northern Honduras (Atlántida and Colon). Planting of spring season maize and beans is underway in Haiti under generally average conditions. However, concerns remain in the country due to the socio-political situation.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

 

Southern Africa: Southern Africa has been experiencing abundant and continuous rainfall since mid-December and the favourable weather conditions have continued throughout February. Crop and rangeland conditions are average to above-average in most parts of the region, with the exception of south-western Angola, northern Mozambique and southern Madagascar. These areas have been impacted by persistent rainfall deficits and a diminished cereal output is expected. Similarly, poor pastoral conditions are observed in north-western Namibia, in a province (Kunene) prone to drought. Moreover, in February, heavy rainfall triggered flooding in some areas (e.g. in central Mozambique and in Zimbabwe) and there is a risk of waterlogging. South Africa, the largest maize producer in the region, has announced bumper harvest expectations, with the maize output expected to be the second largest on record. 

East Africa: The second crop season has ended in most of the bimodal areas and crop production is expected to be close to average in the main cereal-producing regions. However, in parts of the Horn of Africa, including Somalia and eastern and central Kenya, as expected with the ongoing La Niña conditions, seasonal rainfall distribution has been irregular in space and time, causing low crop production. The same areas have also been affected by desert locusts, by the negative socio-economic impact of COVID-19, and in the case of Somalia also by flooding events. A slight delay in belg rainfall is observed in south-western Ethiopia and below-average seasonal rainfall is predicted in north-eastern Ethiopia, which if confirmed could affect cereal production in the north-east, exacerbating the impact of the new conflict in Tigray. In South Sudan, which is currently out of the main crop season, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming.

West and Central Africa: The 2020/2021 crop season has ended in the region and has generally performed well thanks to abundant and well distributed rainfall, except in the conflict-affected zones (central Mali, central and northern Burkina Faso, Lac region in Chad, north-eastern Nigeria and the Far North region in Cameroon).

North Africa: Crop conditions continue to be favourable in most of Morocco and north-eastern Algeria, thanks to abundant rainfall and mild winter temperatures. Close-to-average rainfall in February has also led to improved crop conditions in northern Tunisia. By contrast, in western and central Algeria, as well as in north-eastern Morocco, the rainfall deficit has worsened and the risk of below-average yields is increasing.  

Middle East: In the Middle East, winter cereals are in good condition thanks to above-average temperatures and generally average-to-good rainfall since January, except in Hassakeh (north-eastern Syria), the neighbouring region of Ninewa (north-western Iraq) and eastern Iran, with the latter experiencing the drought affecting Central Asia. In Al-Hasakah and Nineveh, winter cereal growth appears to be delayed compared with an average year and with neighbouring regions (e.g. Erbil in Iraq, or Turkey). Farmers may have delayed sowings of winter wheat due to dry conditions in autumn, damaged irrigation systems, and possibly lack of inputs and high prices. In Yemen, food insecurity resulting from conflict, economic decline and COVID-19 impacts remains very high, and the UN recently warned that half of all children under five are under threat of acute malnutrition. Regarding cropping activities, sowings of sorghum will start in March-April and of wheat in May-June.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, rainfall received since last October has been the lowest in the last 30 years in a large area including southern Kazakhstan, most of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. In these areas, there is a rainfall deficit over the past 3 months of 50-70% with respect to the average, and since January dry conditions have extended to southern Tajikistan, Afghanistan and western Pakistan. However, it is too early to see the impact of this drought and the delay in cereal growth, mainly in Uzbekistan, is most likely due to the cold wave that affected the region between mid-November and early January. In Afghanistan, biomass is close to average for winter cereals thanks to good autumn rainfall, but since January, there has been a rainfall deficit over the whole country of 60% with respect to the average and the persistence of these dry conditions may jeopardise cereal production later this spring. In South Asia, winter wheat biomass conditions remain favourable in Pakistan despite dry conditions in the western part since early January. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, prospects are good for dry season irrigated Boro rice (to be harvested in May) and main season Maha rice (to be harvested in February-March), while in Nepal, conditions are favourable for wheat sown from mid-October to mid-December and maize to be planted from now until May.  

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, dry season rice is progressing in Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam under favourable conditions. In Thailand, in particular, the level of water in reservoirs and the planted rice area have increased with respect to 2020. In Indonesia and the Philippines, abundant rainfall has been favourable for wet season rice, except in localised areas where damage to rice crops has been reported in Indonesia (South Sulawesi) and central Philippines (Visayas).

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Apante season is ongoing in Nicaragua and Honduras under favourable conditions, after Hurricanes Eta and Iota which triggered crop losses during the postrera season. However, total bean and maize production for 2020 (primera, postrera and apante) is estimated to reach average to above-average levels.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

Southern Africa: Southern Africa is in the middle of the summer crop season and abundant rainfall across the region is generally supporting above-average crop and rangeland conditions. However, while South Africa is expecting bumper crop production, significant rainfall deficits are hampering vegetation conditions in crop and pastoral areas of southern Angola and southern and central Madagascar, pastoral areas of north-western Namibia, and northern Mozambique. Moreover, tropical storm Eloise has resulted in widespread damage to cropland in Mozambique, and in heavy rainfall and localised flooding in Zimbabwe, South Africa and Botswana. Additionally, African Migratory Locusts (AMLs) have been detected in the Zambezi region of Namibia and also pose a threat to other parts of Namibia, Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa (FEWSNET).

East Africa: In the bimodal areas, the overall performance of the short rains was better than predicted during the ongoing La Niña event and crop conditions in the main producing areas are generally favourable. Localised areas along the border between Kenya and Somalia, the Kenyan Coast and in southern Somalia have been affected by low rainfall volumes and irregular distribution. Somalia, in particular, continues to experience the impact of desert locusts. Risks for agricultural production in the region are linked mainly to the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 and to the new conflict in Tigray. The macroeconomic and food security situation is particularly alarming in South Sudan, where severe floods in the riverine areas in the second half of 2020 caused crop and livestock losses.

West and Central Africa: The main crop season has ended in the region and has generally performed well, thanks to abundant rainfall. As reported by FEWSNET, 2020/2021 cereal production in West Africa is expected to be 9% above average. Similarly, pasture and water availability are at good levels across the countries of the region. However, below-average crop production is expected in conflict-affected zones in central Mali, central and northern Burkina Faso, the Lac region in Chad, north-eastern Nigeria, and the Far North, Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon.

North Africa: After a delayed onset, the main agricultural areas in the region received improved rainfall in January. In northern and central Morocco, cumulative rainfall is above average, driving generally favourable crop conditions. In Algeria, though there have been improvements in the eastern part, rainfall deficits remain in most western and central parts. In northern Tunisia, an initially good season was followed by dry spells in January.

Middle East: In the Middle East, more specifically in Syria and Iraq, after a start to the season characterised by irregular rainfall and some moisture deficit, the good rainfall in the second dekad of January combined with above-average temperatures is expected to favour growth of winter cereals. In Syria however, lack of input and high prices are likely to restrict cereals production (FAO). In Iran, good rainfall in November in the more productive western part was conducive to the start of cereals and prospects are favourable, except perhaps in the north-east (e.g. Golestan) which suffered from below-average rainfall since December and the cold wave that affected Central Asia. In Yemen, 16 million out of the 30 million population are food insecure due to conflict, the economic downturn and COVID-19 restrictions, according to WFP. As for crop production, land is resting, waiting for sorghum and wheat to be sown in March-April and June, respectively.

Central and South Asia: From mid-November to early January, a cold wave with temperatures up to 8°C below average struck Central Asia (as far as eastern Iran) and slowed vegetation growth. In addition to this cold wave, the northern half of the region (Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), in particular, has received below-average rainfall since October. However, temperatures sharply increased in the second dekad of January, which should boost the growth of winter cereals. In Afghanistan, the cold temperatures delayed the development of winter cereals in the north-west (Jawzjan and Faryab). As in the whole region since early January, rainfall has been scarce, but it is too early to assess the impact of this recent dry spell on crop growth. In South Asia, conditions are favourable for winter wheat in Pakistan, with an expected increase in sown area thanks to availability of irrigation water and government support for prices and inputs. In Bangladesh, prospects are good for dry season irrigated Boro rice to be harvested in May. In Sri Lanka, moisture conditions are also good for main season Maha rice (to be harvested in February-March), while in Nepal, winter wheat conditions are favourable.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, dry season rice is being planted or already growing in Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and southern Vietnam, under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, above-average rainfall since October is favourable for wet season rice.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: In Central America and the Caribbean, harvest is almost finished for the Segunda season crops. Bean and maize yields for the Segunda season have been negatively affected by heavy rains brought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota, which resulted in widespread flooding in the region. The hardest hit areas include northern and western Nicaragua, northern Honduras and northern and eastern Guatemala.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

 

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, summer crops in most agricultural areas are in early vegetative development stages and rainfall performance has been mostly positive, benefiting land preparation and planting. Biomass conditions are average across most parts of the region. However, a rainfall deficit is observed over crop and pastoral areas in southern Angola, southern Madagascar, pastoral areas in northern Namibia, and in central Mozambique, negatively affecting vegetation conditions. There is ample room for recovery, but rainfall needs to be monitored carefully over the coming weeks. African migratory locust could be a threat to the 2020/2021 summer season if not effectively controlled (SADC).

 

East Africa: Second season rainfall performance in the bi-modal parts of the region has been mixed so far, with irregular distribution and below-average amounts, concentrated mainly in southern and north-western Somalia, eastern Kenya and parts of southern Ethiopia. The rainfall season started on time and with greater regularity in western and central Kenya and in Uganda, and has improved in northern Tanzania and Rwanda during November. Sudan is expecting a close-to-average harvest according to FEWSNET; however, the severe flooding in August/September has led to replanting in significant parts of the riverine areas. Also, high food prices, political instability and refugee flows from the new conflict in Ethiopia are adding pressure to the difficult food security situation. In South Sudan, repeated flooding since late 2019, combined with conflict and a worsening macroeconomic situation, is pushing food insecurity to emergency levels. Desert locusts continue to reproduce and spread along the Red Sea coasts and in parts of Ethiopia, north-western Kenya and Somalia. In northern Somalia, high moisture levels following the tropical storm Gati that hit the country in late November are further favouring the development of desert locusts.

West and Central Africa: Harvest of main season crops in the region is complete and production prospects are generally positive, thanks to abundant rainfall received during the agricultural season, and in spite of losses caused by floods in late August and early September. The second maize season is progressing well in the Gulf of Guinea, thanks to abundant and well-distributed rainfall. Below-average production is expected in conflict-affected zones in central Mali, central and northern Burkina Faso, Lac region in Chad, north-eastern Nigeria and the Far North region in Cameroon.

North Africa: The main cereal-growing areas in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia have so far experienced a slow onset of the winter rainy season, with around 50% of the average rainfall received over the past month. While we are still within the planting window for the region, rainfall needs to improve in late November and December to ensure favourable planting and early season crop development. The winter wheat yield from the previous season was significantly below average due to drought in Morocco, and close to average in Algeria and Tunisia.

Middle East: In the Middle East, after a drier-than-average October (especially in Syria and northern Iraq), rainfall arrived in November, supporting winter cereals recently sown in the region. In Yemen, sorghum is harvested in November; despite above-average rainfall during summer, yields are expected to be below average as a result of conflict, COVID-19 restrictions, desert locusts and floods. 

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter wheat has been planted from Turkmenistan to south Kazakhstan, with below-average rainfall in October followed by close-to-average precipitation in November. Snow also appeared in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and northern Afghanistan, due to a cold wave (characterised by temperatures 6-7°C below average) in the second dekad of November. In South Asia, winter wheat has been sown in Afghanistan and Pakistan with close-to-average rainfall conditions in November, while harvest of kharif crops (rice, maize) was completed in Pakistan with favourable prospects. Harvest of Aman rice in Bangladesh and main season rice in Nepal started in November and prospects are favourable due to above-average levels of crop biomass. In Sri Lanka, planting of main season (maha) rice has increased with the arrival of the north-east monsoon in November, after a drier-than-average October affecting the northern part of the country.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, wet season rice has been harvested in Vietnam, and has started or is soon to start in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, with favourable prospects due to abundant rainfall. However, flooding and tropical storms – especially in the Philippines, Cambodia and central Vietnam – caused damage to rice close to harvest in localised areas.   In Indonesia, dry season rice has been harvested and production prospects are good, while wet season rice planting has started under close-to-average rainfall conditions.In North Korea, harvest of rice and maize is now over, and winter wheat and barley were sown in November, mainly in the rice bowl area.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Heavy rains have affected Central America due to Category 4 Hurricane Iota on 17-18 November, less than two weeks after Hurricane Eta. Widespread flooding resulted in the region, particularly in Nicaragua (north and west), Honduras (north) and Guatemala (north and east). (More details can be found in the Copernicus rapid mappings  EMSR481, EMSR482.) Torrential rains resulted in landslides, casualties and damages to infrastructure and crops, with a significant negative impact on postrera season production. The effect of heavy rains in El Salvador is less severe, and although localised crop loss has been reported, national production is anticipated at an above-average level. Meanwhile, rains in Haiti eased dryness and benefited second season crops.

 

 

 

Southern Africa: Land preparation and planting of summer cereal crops are ongoing in the region, under close-to-average weather conditions. The onset of the rainy season is slightly delayed in the eastern part of South Africa; however it is still very early in the season. The SARCOF forecast points to average to above-average rains for the period October-December 2020 for most parts of the region; if this materialises, it will positively support planting activities and crop development. The precarious economic situation in Zimbabwe, aggravated by the impact of COVID-19, is expected to cause reductions in area planted with summer crops. The harvest of winter wheat is ongoing in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and production prospects are positive. Outbreaks of African migratory locust in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe have not been fully controlled and remain a localised threat to crop and livestock production.

East Africa: Floods and other stressors (mainly desert locusts and low availability of inputs) reduced main season cereal production in Sudan, Somalia, north-east Ethiopia and South Sudan. In areas less exposed to floods and locusts, the abundant rainfall in 2020 led to average or above-average production (Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia). In bimodal areas, the rainfall season started on time in western and central Kenya and in Uganda, while the onset of rains is delayed in Somalia, north-east Tanzania and Rwanda. Seasonal predictions forecast below-average rainfall in the Horn of Africa (typical for the current La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean), which is expected to cause drought and poor second season yields in Somalia, eastern Kenya and south-east Ethiopia. Also, desert locusts continue to reproduce and spread along the Red Sea coasts and in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and north-west Kenya. Problems with accessing farming inputs, especially seeds and fertiliser, are expected to limit crop areas planted for the second rainy season in the bimodal areas. Seasonal rainfall forecasts for October-December point to a high likeliness of drought, linked to the La Niña conditions currently developing.

West and Central Africa: The main season is coming to an end and the good rainfall conditions throughout the agricultural season have boosted production prospects, in spite of losses caused by floods in late August and early September. Harvests of cereals and tubers are expected to be 4-10% above average, according to the Septembre meeting of the Regional System for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC). Second season maize in the southern bimodal areas is progressing well, thanks to good rains received since mid-September. However, the region is suffering the impact of heavy floods in 2020, which affected 2.2 million people (OCHA). Flooding is putting additional pressure on already vulnerable households stressed by conflict and insecurity. Below-average crop production is expected in conflict-affected zones in central Mali, central and northern Burkina Faso, the Lac region in Chad, north-east Nigeria, and the Far North region of Cameroon.

North Africa: The rainy season has started in the northern part of the region, although rainfall performance is so far slightly below average in northern Morocco, coastal parts of Algeria and northern Tunisia. Winter wheat yield from the previous season was significantly below average because of drought in Morocco, and close to average for Algeria and Tunisia.

Middle East: In the Middle East, planting of winter cereals has just started and will continue until December. Weather conditions have been warmer and drier than average in northern Syria, which is favourable for winter cereal sowing operations, but rainfall will be needed for plant emergence. In Yemen, conflict and economic decline, exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions, continue to be the main drivers of food insecurity. Despite favourable summer rainfall for sorghum, the harvest due to end in November is expected to be below average.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, spring wheat harvest has been completed and prospects are favourable for the whole region, except in the north-east of Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, east of Severo) where above-average temperatures and irregular rainfall from May to July have likely reduced yield. In South Asia, winter wheat sowings have started in Afghanistan, while harvest of kharif crops (rice, maize) is ongoing in Pakistan with favourable prospects thanks to good rainfall during the summer. Water conditions are also favourable for starting sowings of rabi crops (wheat). Above-average biomass conditions of Aman rice in Bangladesh and main season rice in Nepal continue to point towards a good harvest (to start in November), while planting of main season (maha) rice has started in Sri Lanka.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, prospects are favourable for wet season rice due to abundant summer rainfall, despite localised flooding. In Indonesia, harvest of irrigated dry season rice is over in Java and planting of wet season rice has started, while in Sumatra wet season rice harvest will start in November. In both islands, above-average crop biomass levels point to a good harvest. In North Korea, harvest of rice and maize is now over, with good prospects thanks to good rainfall throughout the summer, and despite possible damage caused by localised flooding or excess rainfall in August.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The postrera season is progressing under favourable conditions, due to average to above-average rains that boosted bean and maize development across most areas. However, Hurricane Eta in November has brought heavy rains, strong winds, floods and landslides, and crop damage is foreseen in the coming days, particularly in Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador.

 

 

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa and aggregate cereal production is estimated above the 5-year average. Towards the end of the winter cropping season, good vegetation conditions are observed for winter wheat in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and positive production prospects are reported. In October, the region will start preparations for the 2020/21 summer crop planting and the SARCOF forecast (Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum) points to adequate rainfall during the first half of the season for most parts of the Southern Africa region (SADC). Outbreaks of African migratory locust are threatening the food security and livelihoods of millions of people in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (Reliefweb) and this threat is likely to increase with the coming season if no action is taken.

East Africa: Floods continued to hit riverine areas in Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia in September, causing casualties, displacement and damage to crops. The Sudan floods in particular are claimed to be the worst in decades and to have affected one third of cultivated areas and over 600,000 households, according to FAO. More information on the August/September floods is available in the ASAP Special Focus for September. Despite abundant rainfall in the region, first season harvests were generally not significantly above average, due to the impact of multiple stressors including the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, desert locusts, the above-mentioned floods and conflict in South Sudan. In Somalia, the first season harvest was significantly below average mainly because of irregular rainfall, floods and desert locust impact. Problems with accessing farming inputs, especially seeds and fertiliser, could limit crop areas being planted for the second rainy season in the bimodal areas. Seasonal rainfall forecasts for October-December point to a high likelihood of drought, linked to the La Niña conditions currently developing.

West and Central Africa: Crop conditions are generally favourable in West Africa and aggregate cereal production for the ongoing season is expected to remain above the 5-year average (FAO). Localised production shortfalls are expected in areas affected by flooding and insecurity. Heavy rainfall at the end of August and in September resulted in loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure and crops in several countries (Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali). Conflict and insecurity in northern Burkina Faso, northern Mali and the Lake Chad Basin (north-east Nigeria, the Far North Region of Cameroon, eastern Niger and the Tibesti Region of Chad) remain the main drivers of food insecurity.

North Africa: The rainy season has started in the northern part of the region and planting is expected to take place in October. Winter wheat yield from the previous season was significantly below average because of drought in Morocco, and close to average for Algeria and Tunisia.

Middle East: In the Middle East, 2020 season cereals were already harvested in July, and sowing of the next season winter crops is expected to start in October/November. In Yemen, conflict and economic decline continue to be the main drivers of food insecurity, despite favourable rainfall for crops over the last three months. Favourable rainfall is however also a pre-condition for development of desert locusts.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects are favourable for the spring wheat harvest, except in north-east Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, east of Severo), where above-average temperatures combined with irregular rainfall from May to July are expected to reduce yield. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for spring wheat and summer crops in Afghanistan, and for kharif crops in Pakistan, thanks to good rainfall during the summer. In Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, moisture conditions have been favourable for Aman rice in Bangladesh, second season (yala) rice in Sri Lanka, and main season rice in Nepal.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, conditions are good for wet season rice and prospects are favourable. In Indonesia, ongoing irrigated dry season rice shows good biomass and here too prospects are favourable. In North Korea, prospects for rice and maize are good thanks to abundant rainfall in August. Possible damage caused by excess rainfall is expected to affect localised riverine areas; impact would need to be assessed in the field.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the 2020 primera season is complete. National production across Central America is anticipated to be average to above average, and for all countries distinctly above last year’s drought-reduced production, thanks to favourable agro-climatic conditions since July. The postrera season is ongoing under favourable conditions due to adequate soil moisture and average to above-average rains received in September. In Haiti, the main season harvest is complete; crop yields are below average due to early dryness and high temperatures. The summer season is ongoing and vegetation conditions remain close to average, due to average rains since mid-July, which increased soil moisture reserves.

 

 

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa and aggregate cereal production is estimated above the 5-year average. Good vegetation conditions are observed for winter wheat in South Africa, and positive production prospects are reported. According to a recent report, restrictions due to COVID-19 "did not have a notable impact on the 2020 agricultural production season" in the region. There is increasing risk of food insecurity and high need for humanitarian assistance in Zimbabwe, where a combination of factors is impeding access to food for poor households.

East Africa: Both unimodal areas and the first season in bimodal areas generally received abundant seasonal rainfall that continued throughout August. Thanks to the good rainy season, crop conditions are generally above average and production prospects in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania are slightly above average. Production forecasts are distinctly below average in Somalia due to early season flooding, a dry spell in May and the impact of desert locusts. South Sudan generally experienced a good crop season in the south, but also dry spells in the northern part. The abundant rains have favoured successive reproduction cycles of desert locusts, which caused and are still causing significant damage in Ethiopia and localized damage in most other countries of the region (Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda). Intensive rainfall in August also caused floods in riverine areas in Sudan, parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia (Afar, Gambella, Oromia and Somali regions). These floods may become even more severe with more rainfall expected in September.

West and Central Africa: Crop conditions are generally favourable in the southern parts of the region and indicate positive prospects for the 2020/2021 harvest. In the Sahelian countries, the season is progressing under favourable conditions due to average to above-average rains which benefited crop development, except in areas where heavy rains triggered localized flooding (e.g. southern Niger) and areas still affected by early season dryness (e.g. southern Mauritania). However, agricultural activities and access to fields continue to be constrained by conflict and civil insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin (Lake Region of Chad, north-east Nigeria and Far North Region of Cameroon) and in central and northern Burkina Faso and Mali.

North Africa: Most of the region is out of season. The winter wheat yield was significantly below average because of drought in Morocco, and close to average in Algeria and Tunisia. Summer crop conditions in Egypt are favourable.

Middle East: In the Middle East, harvest of winter wheat and barley is over and planting of next season cereals will start in October-November. In Yemen, vegetation biomass levels are exceptionally high over the whole country thanks to heavy rainfall at the end of July, which also caused flooding mainly in the centre and west of the country. Despite these very good conditions, which are also conducive to desert locust development, food insecurity remains high due to conflict, economic decline and COVID-19 impacts.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects are favourable for winter and spring wheat harvests, except in north-east Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, east of Severo) where above-average temperatures combined with irregular rainfall from May to July are expected to reduce yield. In South Asia, prospects for spring wheat are favourable in Afghanistan, and conditions are good for kharif (summer) crops in Pakistan and Afghanistan thanks to good rainfall, which however resulted in localized flooding in various regions of both countries. Desert locusts in south-east Pakistan are being kept under control through an intensive ground campaign.

In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, monsoon rainfall was conducive to Aman rice in Bangladesh and second season (yala) rice in Sri Lanka, while also causing floods in many regions of Bangladesh. In Nepal, moisture conditions continue to be favourable for main season rice.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, moisture conditions are now favourable for the planting and growth of wet season rice. In most regions previously affected by below-average rainfall, rice planted area has increased, except in central Thailand around Chainat where the area planted in rice remains below average. In Indonesia, conditions are favourable for ongoing irrigated dry season rice. In North Korea, prospects for rice and maize are good despite heavy rainfall that resulted in localized flooding of about 40,000 ha in early August, mainly in North Hwanghae and Kangwon provinces.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the primera season is ongoing in Central America under favourable conditions due to average to above-average rainfall received during the season. Planting of the postrera season has begun in parts of El Salvador and Guatemala with good soil moisture levels. In Haiti, rainfall has improved after the previous dry conditions. Nevertheless, rains arrived late and spring season cereal production for 2020 is forecast to be below average. In addition, Tropical Storm Laura caused floods and crop losses, mainly in the Sud and Sud-Est departments.

 

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region, the harvest of the main agricultural season has been completed and aggregate cereal production in 2020 is estimated at 37 million tonnes, 18% above the 5-year average (source: FAO). The favourable production output reflects improved rainfall conditions in the first few months of 2020, which supported crop development. Both of the region’s leading maize suppliers, South Africa and Zambia, are expecting bumper harvests (approximately 35% and 25% above the 5-year average, respectively). However, poor weather conditions and a challenging economic situation in Zimbabwe resulted in decreased output of maize, further deteriorating an already fragile food security situation. Localised production shortfalls are expected in southern Mozambique and southern Madagascar, maintaining high levels of food insecurity in the affected areas. Fair to good pastoral conditions in most countries throughout the season are expected to support livestock production, with the exception of parts of Namibia (e.g. Kunene) and most of Zimbabwe. Conditions for winter wheat in the Western Cape of South Africa are close to average, and the area planted is close to the 5-year average according to preliminary estimates. Thanks to the good cereal harvest, food availability in the region is expected to be adequate. However, the COVID‑19 pandemic will deepen and increase food insecurity for already vulnerable households in the region, due to loss of income opportunities, disruptions to the informal food sector, and reductions in remittances.

 

East Africa: The bimodal areas of the region generally experienced good rainfall during the first crop season. However, the belg harvest in Ethiopia and gu harvest in Somalia are expected to be below-average. This is due to irregular rainfall – including excess rainfall that led to floods, mostly in eastern Ethiopia and riverine areas of Somalia – and below-average planted area due to COVID‑19 restrictions and fear of desert locusts. In Eritrea, the main season has started with average to below-average rains in the most productive areas. In Kenya, Somalia and Uganda, desert locust damage to ongoing crops appears limited overall, and offset to a large degree by the positive effects of abundant rainfall on crop and rangeland conditions. Control operations have also been successful in these countries. However, desert locusts continue to be a threat in the unimodal areas (e.g. Sudan) and possibly in the meher season areas in Ethiopia. There was a marked increase in COVID-19 cases in most countries in the region in July. This has led to increased stress on health systems and prolonged containment measures, with negative economic impacts (increased food and input prices, reduced remittances, restrictions to movement of livestock and people thus reducing migratory labour, etc.). In Sudan and South Sudan, despite favourable weather conditions, agricultural production and food security are expected to be negatively affected by insecurity (intercommunal violence in July and consequences of protracted conflict in South Sudan), together with socio-economic factors (reduced availability of fuel, high prices, COVID-19 measures).

 

West and Central Africa: Good rainfall in June and July has resulted in promising crop and pasture development in the Sahel region, but also caused localised floods in Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mauritania and Nigeria. In Nigeria, crop conditions have improved in the central belt and north-eastern regions; however, crop biomass is still below average despite good and timely rainfall. The delayed crop growth in the northern half of the country is due to delayed agricultural activities resulting from insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions. This slowdown in agricultural activities will likely increase the need for humanitarian assistance in this region. According to FAO, COVID-19 containment measures have also reduced access to inputs and agricultural labour in Chad and Senegal, restricting planting and negatively affecting crop yields. Additionally, transhumance is also being impeded by mobility restrictions due to conflicts and measures to tackle the pandemic. The locust situation remains calm for the moment, but there is a risk that swarms from East Africa could appear in eastern Chad (FAO).
In Central Africa, agro-climatic conditions have been favourable in all countries (Tanzania, DRC, Rwanda and Burundi). However, in DRC production is expected to be below average due to excess rainfall, insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions.

 

North Africa: According to the MARS Bulletin, yields in Morocco are forecast to be 28% below the 5-year average for barley and 23% below for wheat, as a result of spring drought. Meanwhile, Algeria is expecting close-to-average national yields, despite a prolonged dry spell in February in the western part of the country (which mainly affected barley). In Tunisia, the central regions (mainly Siliana and Beya) are also expecting below-average yields due to a rainfall deficit in the early part of the season.

 

Middle East: In the Middle East, winter wheat and barley harvests are expected to be above the average for recent years. In Syria, wheat production is estimated to still be below pre-conflict levels, and in Dayr az Zor the area for summer crops is also below pre-conflict levels due to reduced irrigation since 2013. In Iran, desert locust infestation is under control according to FAO, helped by the absence of rainfall.
In Yemen, conditions continue to be favourable from an agrometeoroloical perspective for growth of sorghum and wheat. However, protracted conflict combined with economic decline, COVID-19 and its consequences (e.g. reduction in remittances, income loss, increased prices) and desert locust and fall armyworm infestations have resulted in an increase in food insecurity. IPC estimates that 40% of the total population will face acute food insecurity from now until the end of the year.

 

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects for winter and spring wheat are favourable, except in the eastern half of Kazakhstan, where above-average temperatures combined with irregular rainfall have boosted growth of cereals in the first part of their cycle but also accelerated their maturation. In Turkmenistan (Lebap) and Uzbekistan (Karakalpakstan), water levels in the Amu Darya river that provides irrigation to summer crops are clearly lower than in 2019, although there is no visible impact of potential water shortage on summer crop growth yet.
In South Asia, prospects for winter cereal harvests are favourable in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and kharif (summer) conditions are good in Pakistan thanks to above-average rainfall. However, desert locusts present in south-east Pakistan (the south-eastern part of Sindh) may also benefit from the onset of monsoon rainfall. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, moisture conditions are favourable for the growth of Aman rice (which accounts for 35% of Bangladesh rice production, according to FAO GIEWS) and second season (yala) rice in Sri Lanka. In Nepal, heavy monsoon rainfall was favourable to main season rice but also caused floods and landslides.

 

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, wet season rice growth appears to be delayed with respect to the average in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, central and northern Thailand, and northern and central Vietnam, due to below-average rainfall in the last three to six months. It is however too early to assess the impact of this rainfall deficit, which over the last three months occurred mainly in Myanmar, central Laos, eastern Thailand, northern and central Vietnam during main season rice production.
In Indonesia, the wet season rice harvest is nearly completed, with production expected to be below average due to a decrease in planted area, according to FAO. Average to above-average yields are expected for rice and maize, thanks to good rainfall during the season and despite a late onset of monsoon rains, which delayed planting of main season crops (rice and maize) by about two months, and is now delaying planting of dry season rice.
In North Korea, moisture conditions continue to be favourable for growth of rice and maize.

 

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season is progressing under favourable conditions in Central America due to good rainfall until mid-July. Below-average rains have been recorded in parts of Central America in July, but without negative impacts on the status of vegetation. In Haiti, vegetation conditions have slightly improved due to near-average rainfall since mid-June. However, rains have arrived late, particularly in the departments of Nord-Est and Sud, and spring season production is forecast at below-average levels (FEWS NET).
Despite the continuing increase in incidence of COVID-19, the governments of El Salvador and Honduras have reopened economic activities, while Nicaragua continues not to have any restrictive measures.

 

 

Southern Africa: As the main crop season harvest is nearing completion, preliminary reports suggest favourable production prospects in most parts of Southern Africa, reflecting improved rainfall conditions in the first few months of 2020. Both of the region’s leading maize suppliers, South Africa and Zambia are expecting bumper harvests (30% and 25% above the 5-year average respectively). However, maize production in Zimbabwe is expected to be 30% below the 5-year average, an output reflecting the challenging economic situation and the poor weather conditions that affected planting operations and crop development. Localised production shortfalls are expected in southern Mozambique and southern Madagascar. The COVID-19 pandemic is placing further strain on the food security situation of already vulnerable households in the region due to loss of income earning opportunities, restricted access to informal markets and reductions in remittances. Poor rangeland conditions are observed in parts of Namibia and most of Zimbabwe.

 

East Africa: The intensive and prolonged rains since March in the region have caused floods in several countries (including Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda), but have also been generally beneficial to the first crop season in the bimodal areas and have given a positive start to the unimodal regions. Agricultural production hotspots, however, remain in Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan. In Somalia the Gu season production forecast of FSNAU is 20%-30% below average due to the combined effects of floods and desert locusts. In Ethiopia the Belg season production was affected by the same problems as well as by high farming input prices. In South Sudan, despite good agro-climatic conditions, the effects of conflict and COVID-19 and restriction measures have made agricultural production even more challenging. For the same reasons, food prices in Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan are significantly above average. In Kenya and Uganda, desert locust damage to the ongoing crop season appears overall limited and largely offset by the positive effects of abundant rainfall on crop and rangeland conditions. Desert locusts, however, continue to be a threat for the unimodal areas (e.g. Sudan) and possibly also for the Meher season areas in Ethiopia. COVID-19 cases have increased markedly in most countries in the region in June.

 

West and Central Africa: Crop conditions are generally favourable in the bi-modal southern parts of the region, thanks to average to above-average rains. In the first two dekads of June, good rains have been supporting planting and early season crop development in the northern mono-modal areas. A slightly delayed start to the season and below-average crop conditions were observed in June in the central belt and north-eastern regions of Nigeria, however it is still very early in the season to say whether this will have a negative impact on the seasonal production. Concern remains due to continued conflict across the Lake Chad Basin region and terrorist attacks in northern Burkina Faso, with negative repercussions on agricultural activities and increases in humanitarian assistance needs. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic poses a threat to food security in the region and according to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), “the Covid-19 pandemic could increase the number of food-insecure households in western Africa from 17 million to 50 million between June and August 2020” (Solidarites). Transhumance is also impacted due to mobility restrictions imposed by conflicts and measures to tackle the pandemic.

 

North Africa: According to latest yield forecasts (MARS Bulletin), late season rainfall in May in Morocco came late for the recovery of drought-affected winter cereals and the expected yields are 28% below the 5-year average for barley and 23% for wheat. Algeria expects close to average national yield, but the western part of the country has experienced a prolonged dry spell in February, and late rainfall did not allow for crop recovery, especially for barley. In Tunisia, the central regions (mainly Siliana and Beya) are also expecting below-average yield, due to rainfall deficits in the early part of the season.

 

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects for winter wheat are favourable despite drier than average conditions in the last month in eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, growth of spring cereals has been good thanks to temperatures above average by 5 or 6 degrees since April and despite irregular rainfall since March in most of the country. In South Asia, prospects for the winter cereal harvest are favourable in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and desert locust infestation seems to be under control in Pakistan. In Bangladesh, the harvest of irrigated dry season Boro rice has finished with good expectations and planting of Aman rice has started under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, conditions are favourable for the growth of second (Yala) rice thanks to the heavy rainfall in May.

 

South-East and Eastern Asia: in continental south-east Asia, planting of wet season rice is delayed with respect to the average in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar due to low rainfall since the end of 2019. However, good rainfall arrived between mid-May and early June and allowed field flooding for rice transplanting in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. In Vietnam, winter/spring rice is close to harvest with good biomass levels in the north, while in the Mekong Delta wet season rice is reaching flowering in good condition. In the Philippines, wet season rice planting started in April/May and conditions are favourable in all regions, except Cagayan Valley and North Mindanao where rainfall deficit in the previous months has delayed rice flooding. In Indonesia, above-average rainfall in the last three months has favoured late planted wet season rice. In North Korea, conditions are generally favourable for recently planted rice and maize thanks to good rainfall received in May.

 

Middle East: In the Middle East, the harvest of winter wheat and barley is under way with good production prospects that are, however, likely to be lessened by conflict in Syria. In Iran, according to FAO, at end of June desert locust infestation is declining. In Yemen, rainfall conditions continue to be favourable for sorghum growth and wheat sowings but may also favour desert locust infestation while control measures are not possible due to conflict.

 

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Primera season planting is still ongoing in Central America under favourable conditions due to average to above-average rains received in the last month. These allowed the recovery of some initial dryness in the Gulf of Fonseca and benefited the emergence and establishment of maize and beans. The Pacific tropical storms Amanda and Cristobal in late-May and beginning of June resulted in heavy rains that triggered local flooding in El Salvador, parts of southern and western Honduras and eastern Guatemala. El Salvador was the most affected country with significant crop losses according to the Government. However, as the damages occurred early during the season there is still the opportunity to re-sow. In the Caribbean Islands, crop conditions continue to deteriorate in Haiti because of persistent dryness over the last month. While in Cuba, crops have generally been able to recover due to the good rains received. Preventive measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 pose a critical threat to food security, decrease employment and affect staple food prices in the region, except in Nicaragua, where no measures are in place.

 

Southern Africa: At the time of harvest for main season cereal crops, production prospects are generally favourable in most of Southern Africa, reflecting the improved rainfall conditions in the first few months of 2020. However, maize production in Zimbabwe is expected at 30% below the 5 year average, due to poor rainfall in late 2019, and early cessation in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, and to lower access to food by the most vulnerable, including small-scale farmers, and urban households. Movement restrictions and other containment measures will likely affect ongoing harvesting activities, potentially leading to high levels of losses (source: FAO). Localised production shortfalls are expected in other areas of the region, such as in southern Mozambique and southern Madagascar. South Africa is expecting a bumper maize harvest (30% above the 5 year average) as a result of beneficial rainfall since December in the main cereal-producing provinces. In Zambia, overall production expectations are good, however in the southern province, production shortfalls are expected due to rainfall deficits, floods, and fall armyworm (FAW) infestation. Namibia and Lesotho are expecting a significant recovery in maize production, compared with the sharply reduced output of the previous season. In Angola, maize production is forecasted at a near average level, while livestock production in the southern provinces is expected to improve as a result of pasture regeneration and the replenishment of water surface reservoirs. Rangeland conditions have also recovered in Botswana. In contrast, in north-western and southern Namibia, rangeland biomass conditions are below average due to poor rainfall received throughout the season.

 

East Africa: The region continues to experience multiple threats to agriculture and food security, as exceptional rainfall in March and April led to major floods, providing favourable conditions for the breeding of desert locusts. The food security risks caused by these threats are particularly severe in countries with ongoing conflicts, or with high levels of insecurity. COVID-19 is affecting labour intensive crops, and containment measures in particular could hamper the harvest of the ongoing season, which is due to start soon in the Belg areas of Ethiopia, and in Somalia. Food prices increased sharply in April in both South Sudan and Sudan, and in both countries, the COVID-19 containment measures are adding pressure to tense political and economic situations. Pastoralists in the region are also highly vulnerable to COVID-19-related effects, due to movement restrictions, reduced livestock exports to the Gulf states during Ramadan, and lower incomes as a result of this. Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda are all experiencing extreme flood damage to the population, infrastructure, and agriculture. The extent of the damage ranges from large inundated areas on the shores of Lake Victoria, to flash floods in the dry Waadis of Puntland, Bay, and Bakool in Somalia (more information on floods is available in the ASAP May special focus). A high risk of flooding persists along the Shebelle and Juba rivers in Somalia.

 

West and Central Africa: In the southern bi-modal parts of the region, first season maize crop conditions are generally favourable, with a slight rainfall deficit in April/May visible across the northern areas of Ivory Coast, Ghana, Benin, Togo, and central Nigeria. There are concerns due to the continued conflict in central Sahel and in southern Cameroon, with negative repercussions for agricultural activities, and an increased necessity for humanitarian assistance (for example in northern Nigeria). In these areas, COVID-19 has further increased the risk of food insecurity, since access to health infrastructure is already challenging. In poor countries such as Niger, the suspension of school meals because of COVID-19 is further exposing children and families to food insecurity.
Land preparation and the early planting of 2020 main season crops are underway, with generally good agro-climatic conditions. However, a recent forecast from FAO has signalled a risk of locust invasion in West Africa, from mid-June 2020. Locusts coming from East Africa could reach the eastern part of the Sahel, and the invasion could spread through all of West Africa, so anticipatory actions have been implemented.

 

North Africa: The region is paying the highest death toll in Africa to COVID-19, and movement restrictions are likely to have a negative impact on harvest activities. Morocco is experiencing around 20% below average yields due to drought, which is particularly affecting the south/western part of the country. In Algeria, the latest yield forecasts of the May MARS Bulletin predicts close to average national yield, but the western part of the country has experienced a prolonged dry spell in February, and late rainfall was not successful in recovering crops. In Tunisia, the central regions (mainly Siliana and Beya) are also expecting below average yield, due to rainfall deficits in the early part of the season.

 

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kirghistan), production prospects for winter wheat are good, despite the March dry spell.  In Kazakhstan, the growth of spring cereals has begun under favourable conditions, particularly in the main producing oblasts of northern Kazakhstan, resulting from above average temperatures in April. In South Asia, winter cereals benefitted from above average rainfall in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nepal. This rainfall also caused floods in northern Afghanistan in early May, and may have promoted the proliferation of desert locusts in Pakistan. In Bangladesh, the harvest of irrigated dry season Boro rice has begun, and prospects are good. With the arrival of the monsoon, aman rice is soon to be transplanted, under favourable moisture conditions. In Sri Lanka, after a drier than average inter-monsoon season, the south-west monsoon arrived in early May, causing floods in the centre-south of the island, and triggering the planting of second season (Yala) rice.

 

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental Southeast Asia, dry season rice harvest is coming to an end in all areas apart from north Vietnam, with below average production expected in Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia due to lack of irrigation water, while prospects are good for Vietnam, and close to average for Myanmar. Wet season rice planting has just begun, and rice planting appears to be delayed compared to 2019 in the centre of Thailand, Cambodia, and southern Laos due to below average rainfall in the last three months. However, we are still in the planting window since wet season rice is usually planted up to August. In the Philippines, dry season rice was recently harvested, and production is expected to be below average due to lack of rainfall, and it is the start of the season for wet season rice. In Indonesia, the season is coming to a close for wet season rice, with good prospects, and the planting of dry season rice has begun in some areas. In North Korea, this is the very start of the season for the main crops (rice, maize), and there has been a moisture deficit of about 30% for the last 3 months for the northern half of the country, including the rice bowl provinces of Pyongyang, and northern and southern Pyongan. 

 

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, agro-climatic conditions continued to be favourable for winter wheat and barley, and harvest prospects are good (although constrained by conflict in Syria). In Yemen, good rainfall benefitted the recently sown sorghum in the central highlands and coastal areas, but also caused floods in the centre, and southern coastal areas, and promoted the proliferation of desert locusts.

 

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The planting of Primera season cereals across Central America is progressing well. There is some concern in the Gulf of Fonseca due to dry conditions in April, and a delayed onset of the season in some zones. The most affected areas include: southern Honduras, northern Nicaragua, and eastern El Salvador, where rains at the beginning of May have barely started.  At this early stage of the season however, there is still a wide margin for improvement if rainfall intensifies in the coming weeks.
In the Caribbean Islands, vegetation conditions have significantly deteriorated as a consequence of below average rains up to this point. Dry weather particularly affected the main producing rice departments in western Cuba, and the main cereal producing region of Artibonite, the Nord-Est, and the central regions, where the spring season is ongoing.
Preventive measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 pose a critical threat to food security, and affect access to sources and food in the region, except in Nicaragua, where no measures are in place.

 

 

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, the main agricultural season is ending with the harvest of summer crops starting in April. After a late onset of rains, seasonal rainfall conditions improved in January and February in some areas and remained below average in others. Crop losses are expected in localized areas affected by floods in January, February and March, while Zimbabwe and parts of Madagascar, Mozambique and Namibia are suffering drought impact. The food security situation in Zimbabwe remains of major concern since the country was hit by multiple stressors including drought that affected 2019/20 agricultural activities and proper crop growth, flooding that followed in some provinces, coupled with a challenging economic situation, that limited access to agricultural inputs and low grain reserves. On the contrary, South Africa is expecting a bumper harvest thanks to beneficial rains since December over the main cereal-producing provinces. In Zambia, overall production expectations are good, however in the Southern province localized production shortfalls are expected due to rainfall deficits and floods. In Lesotho, despite the late onset of rains, a recovery in maize production to near-average levels is expected. Food security concerns remain for minor producing areas in southern Mozambique, that were affected by drought throughout the season. Along coastal and southern Namibia, long-term dryness resulted in poor pastoral conditions. COVID19 is expected to further aggravate food security stress and crisis situations such as in Zimbabwe or in poor urban areas.

 

East Africa: The region experienced exceptional rainfall in late 2019 and early 2020 that lead to exceptional greenness and favoured the breeding and movements of desert locusts across the Horn. High levels of soil moisture and early onset of the 2020 first rainy season has favoured planting under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. At the same time though, above average rainfall in March has also allowed desert locusts to reproduce and continue their spread across Somalia, central and northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia, reaching as far as Uganda and south Sudan. According to the "most likely scenario" analysis released by ICPAC in February, locusts swarms will cause damage across the main grain and livestock producing regions in Eastern Africa in the early stages of the season. But due to the favorable March rainfall and recent movements of swarms to main seasonal production areas (like for example the Belg regions in Ethiopia), there is a concrete risk that locust damage becomes a major hazard. In a region with some of the most vulnerable populations in terms of food security and health and in times where the COVID19 outbreak is already showing negative impacts on the economy and livelihoods, a crop and livestock production failure due to desert locusts could lead to worsen existing food security crises or to cause new ones. Support to the agricultural sector, avoidance of trade barriers and reinforcement of safety nets and humanitarian intervention will be crucial to keep food supply and access functioning.

 

West and Central Africa: Main season maize planting is ongoing in the southern parts of the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, under generally average conditions. A rainfall deficit in the last month is affecting the southern parts of Ghana, Togo and Benin, but is still very early in the season. Concern remains due to continued conflict in the central Sahel and in southern Cameroon, with negative repercussions on agricultural activities.

 

North Africa: Rainfall has improved in the second half of March, but cumulated seasonal amounts remain significantly below average in most of Morocco, Western and parts of central Algeria as well as in parts of Tunisia. In Morocco, vegetation conditions in the South Western part, where the season is close to harvest, appear worse than in the drought affected 2019 season. Rainfall deficits and dry spells are common also for Eastern Morocco, Eastern Algeria and Northern Tunisia, but improved rainfall since second half of March is supporting recovery of vegetation growth in most of these areas.

 

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan and south of Kazakhstan, March was particularly dry but biomass levels of winter cereals remained close to or above average. In northern Afghanistan, after a drier than average start of year, good rains arrived after the 20th of March, benefiting winter cereals but also causing floods, as in northern Pakistan. In contrast, Sri Lanka underwent particularly dry conditions from January to March, which caused lack of water supply to the population. Prospects for main season (maha) rice harvest are still favourabe due to good rainfall received before the dry spell.  

 

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, dry conditions with above average temperatures have continued to prevail over the centre and north of Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. Harvest of dry season rice has taken or is taking place in the region with close to average prospects in most countries, except Thailand where the dry season rice area is strongly reduced due to lack of irrigation water.In Indonesia and Timor Leste, after a delayed start of season, main season rice has seen its area gradually increase with the arrival of rainfall and crop biomass is now close or above average in most regions. In North Korea, drier than average conditions prevailed in March with no visible impact on winter cereals yet.

 

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, prospects for winter cereals production are favourable due to good rainfall throughout the season. However, 18 provinces in Iran, Raqqa in northern Syria and three provinces in northern Iraq were affected by floods in March and April. Yemen, where sorghum is about to be planted, also received good rainfall that resulted in localized floods in the south (Aden in March and April) and centre (Sana’a and Ma’rib in April) but also favoured the development of desert locusts.  

 

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Land preparation for primera season cereals, which will start next month, is underway with average rains across Central America. Only Guatemala is currently experiencing non ideal conditions for planting with above-average temperatures and below-average rains so far. Planting of spring season and main rice season started in Haiti and Cuba, respectively, with some concerns in the Nord-Ouest department in Haiti as a result of dryness at the beginning of the year.

 

 

Southern Africa: Erratic rainfall patterns have affected the region, with a late onset, followed by dry spells in December and flooding in January and February over areas that have been predominantly dry. Across the region there are now 14.4 million people facing acute levels of hunger, compared to 6 million at the same time in 2018 (RELIEFWEB). The food security situation in Zimbabwe is of major concern since the country was hit by multiple stressors including drought that affected 2019/20 agricultural activities and proper crop growth, flooding that followed in some provinces, a challenging economic situation and low grain reserves.  In February, heavy rainfall has triggered floods in central Mozambique, affecting areas that were still recovering from Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which struck the country in 2019. Moreover, central and northern Malawi, eastern provinces of South Africa and eastern Zambia have been affected by flash floods due to heavy rains received in February. In the main cereal producing regions of South Africa, despite a late onset of rains, good rainfall since December is improving production prospects. Moreover, favourable weather conditions over the main cereal-producing provinces in Angola are supporting crop growth. Below-average crop conditions are observed in southern Zambia and northeastern Namibia due to rainfall deficits. In Lesotho, despite the improved rainfall conditions in the last months, there are concerns of reduced yields. Poor rangeland conditions persist in the Cape area in South Africa and drought conditions are also prevailing over the coastal and southern areas of Namibia, leading to poor biomass conditions. According to the WMO’s Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecast, above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are likely to occur in the region from March to May.

 

East Africa: Most of the region received exceptional and prolonged rainfall from October to December. The intensive rainfall has caused floods in late 2019 in Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya, with displacement of several hundreds of thousands of people, damage to houses and infrastructure as well as livestock losses. The humidity and abundant vegetation in dry areas have also favoured exceptional development of desert locusts, which have caused crop and pasture losses mainly in Central and Southern Ethiopia and in parts of Somalia in December. In late December and in January the swarms have expanded massively in northern and central Kenya and have reached northern Uganda and South Sudan in February. According to the “most likely scenario” analysis made available by ICPAC, locusts swarms will cause damage across the main grain and livestock producing regions in Eastern Africa in the early stages of the next season. Although this might not necessarily have a major impact on national level grain production, it will be detrimental for the food security of highly vulnerable populations in the areas hit by swarms. Based on the current and projected analyses by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), more than 10 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Sudan, who are already facing severe food insecurity in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse, are located in areas currently affected by the desert locust infestations.

West and Central Africa: The 2019-2020 crop season has ended in the region and has generally performed well thanks to abundant and well distributed rainfall.

North Africa: Agro-climatic conditions for winter crops growth have worsened in late January and February in the Maghreb due to significantly below average rainfall (up to 70% below average) coupled with above average temperatures. The negative rainfall anomaly further deteriorated below optimal crop conditions in south/western Morocco. In Algeria and Tunisia, where the early stages crop conditions had been above average, there is no negative impact on crop conditions visible at this time, but the deficit of the last 30 days poses clear risks to overall crop performance and improved rainfall in March will be crucial. 

Central and South Asia : In Central and South Asia, winter cereals are generally in good conditions, including areas in northern Afghanistan and southern Tajikistan, where rainfall has been 20 to 40% below average during the last 3 months. 

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, the dry season rice area is reduced with respect to 2019 due to irrigation water shortage following below average rainfall during the wet season, especially in the centre-north of Thailand.

In Indonesia, the main season rice area has continued to increase in the eastern part of the country following the arrival of rainfall. In Timor Leste, crop biomass conditions have improved and are now close or above average in most regions, except for a few spots where the area of flooded paddy fields is smaller than in 2019 reducing main season rice production expectations.

In North Korea winter cereals are in dormancy with above average temperatures since December.

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, winter cereals conditions are generally favourable, despite minor rainfall deficits in the east of Syria, northern Iran and south of Iraq.  Yemen is still out of season for the main crops.

Central America and Caribbean Islands:  Harvest is complete for the Postrera season and yields are generally close to average due to good weather conditions throughout the season. Harvest of the Apante bean season is ongoing in Nicaragua and Honduras after favorable rains during the season.

 

 

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, crop conditions are negatively impacted by drought that has worsened in December in most parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe, in northeastern Namibia and southern Mozambique due to below-average seasonal rainfall received so far. Zimbabwe is facing the worst hunger crisis in a decade, with 7.7 million people being severely food insecure (WFP) and only 100,000 tons of grain in its strategic reserves according to Reuters. In January, heavy rainfall has triggered floods in southern Angola, southern Zambia, central and northern Mozambique, resulting in loss of cropland in some areas. In the main cereal producing regions of South Africa, despite a late onset of rains, rainfall improved in December and January leading to good crop conditions. In the Cape area, however, severe drought conditions persist. The Zambezi region in Namibia is affected by an outbreak of fall armyworm. Improved rangeland conditions are observed in western and southern Botswana, thanks to good rains in December and January. In contrast, livestock deaths have been reported in Namibia and Zimbabwe. Agricultural activities have intensified in the region thanks to the lately improved rain, however continuation of rains in the second part of the season is crucial to support the development of late planted crops. According to the WMO’s Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecast, above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are likely occur in the region from February to April.

East Africa: Most of the region received exceptional and prolonged rainfall from October to December. The significantly wetter than usual conditions have favored pastoral vegetation restoration, second season crop production in the Southern part of the region and main season harvest in Ethiopia and Sudan. On the other side, intensive rainfall has also caused important floods in late 2019 in Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya, with displacement of several hundreds of thousands of people, damage to houses and infrastructure as well as livestock losses. The impact of floods on population displacement and loss of livelihoods assets was particularly severe in the Upper Nile region of South Sudan. The humidity and abundant vegetation in dry areas has also favoured exceptional development of desert locusts, which have caused crop and pasture losses mainly in Central and Southern Ethiopia and in parts of Somalia. The swarms have reached North and Central Kenya in late December, where so far, damage on exceptionally green rangelands is contained. However, there is a serious risk that if the ideal weather conditions continue and winds remain favourable, the locusts will reach main grain producing regions in Eastern Africa in the early stages of the next season (eg. Rift Valley area in Kenya, Southern Somalia, Belg areas in Ethiopia and parts of Uganda).

West and Central Africa: The main crop season has ended in the region and has generally performed well thanks to abundant rainfall. Conflict and insecurity that persists in parts of Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali Nigeria and Cameroon, is affecting livelihoods and impeding food security conditions.  

North Africa: Agro-climatic conditions for winter crops growth are generally positive across North Africa and rainfall has improved in December/January in the North/East of Morocco. A delay in the start of the season remains visible however in the South/West of Morocco.

Central and South Asia : In Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, west Kazakhstan), rainfall has been slightly below average during the last 3 months; it is however too early to assess the impact of this rainfall deficit on winter cereals.
In south Asia, conditions have been favourable for winter crops in Pakistan  (Rabi wheat) and Afghanistan. 

South-East and Eastern Asia: in continental south-east Asia, (Thailand, Laos Cambodia), the 2019 monsoon rainfall receded rapidly as from end September, i.e. one month earlier than usual and according to the Mekong River Commission, the Mekong is at its lowest levels since November.  Shortage of irrigation water has resulted in a reduction of the irrigated dry season rice area, especially in central Thailand.
In Indonesia, the wet season rainfall arrived in December instead of end October and planting of main season rice was delayed by one to two months, especially in the eastern part which received only 60 to 70% of their average rainfall over the last 3 months. The situation may become critical for Timor Leste whose main crop is rain fed maize as the delayed planting of rain fed crops increases the risk of crop loss in case of dry spell later in the season.
In North Korea winter cereals are in dormancy and temperatures have been above average since December.

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, weather conditions are favourable for winter cereals with good rains since December (except in northern Iran) and mild temperatures.
In Yemen, main crops are out of season (millet was the last crop to be harvested in December in coastal areas). Rainfall has been above average during the last months of 2019 (especially October) favouring biomass growth and consequently locust outbreaks.

Central America and Caribbean Islands:  Postrera season harvest is nearing completion in Central America. After a primera characterized by important losses in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, vegetation conditions have improved and prospects are generally close to average due to good rains since mid-September that benefited maize, beans and sorghum development. Only some concerns remain in the areas where planting was delayed due to early season dryness.

 

The February assessment will be released at the end of February 2020.

East Africa: After the exceptional rains (>200% of average) received in October over most of the region, rainfall was close to normal in November. Important floods in Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya have caused displacement of several hundreds of thousands of people, damage to houses and infrastructure as well as livestock losses. The impact of floods on population displacement and loss of livelihoods assets was particularly severe in the Upper Nile region of South Sudan. The humidity and abundant vegetation in dry areas has also favoured development of desert locusts, which are causing crop and pasture losses mainly in Central and Southern Ethiopia. Flood effects will have a negative short term impact on the food security situation, which in many countries in the region is still suffering the negative impacts of drought during the first season cereal production. On the medium term though, the abundant rains are expected to favour crop production in areas with an ongoing unimodal growing season (Sudan, Ethiopia, southern/central Tanzania) or an ongoing second season (Northern Tanzania, parts of Kenya etc…).

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa, most agricultural areas are in early vegetative development stages for summer crops, and positive rainfall amounts have been registered in central and eastern areas of South Africa, central Angola, and eastern Botswana during November. However, the late onset of rainfall in central/eastern South Africa, Lesotho and eSwatini, is expected to have reduced the area planted. Mixed weather conditions are observed in northern cropping areas of Namibia and southern Angola. Below-average rangeland conditions and poor livestock conditions are reported in western Botswana, and southern Zimbabwe. In Zimbabwe continuing hyperinflation is exacerbating food security problems due to low agricultural production and chronic vulnerability.  Below-average December to February rainfall is forecast across the southern half of the region (GEOGLAM-Special Report Southern Africa). If this forecast materializes and a new drought will follow on a poor summer crop and below average winter wheat production, further stress will be added to food security conditions over the region. Average to above average rainfall in the next weeks will be crucial to ensure normal vegetation development and continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

West and Central Africa: Harvest in the Sahel is complete and production prospects are generally average to above-average, with the exception of Gambia where a delay in the onset and erratic rainfall distribution at the beginning of the season affected crop production. Early dryness in western Sahel, has also affected pastoral vegetation conditions which remain below-average in southern Mauritania and northern Senegal (i.e. Matam and Pobor), despite an improvement of rains since mid-August. Production in the mono-seasonal part of the Gulf of Guinea is overall favorable. However, flooding events in October and November, coupled with insecurity and conflict have affected parts of Nigeria and Cameroon and are limiting agro-pastoral activities in these areas. The second maize season is progressing well in the Gulf of Guinea thanks to abundant and well distributed rainfall.

North Africa: Winter crop season rainfall has increased in November in north/eastern Morocco, while the onset of the rainy season is delayed in the Center and Southern parts of the country. Improved rainfall in December will be crucial for planting. Agro-climatic conditions in the rest of the region are generally favourable for winter cereal planting.

Central and South Asia : In Central Asia, spring cereals production is expected to be close to average except for the north/western part of Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya) where spring cereals suffered from dry and hot conditions. 

In south Asia, conditions have been favourable for wet season rice and maize in Pakistan, as well as for winter cereals sowings in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In southeast Asia, Indonesia (mainly Java and south Sumatra) had a below average rain-fed crop production. Main season rice planting, which normally starts in October is also delayed due to dry conditions since October. Similar dry conditions are observed also in Timor Leste.

In the northern part of the region (Thailand, Cambodia, Laos) overall, production is expected to be slightly below average due to the drought at the start of the wet season which resulted in a reduced sown area (or to failed sowings) in few regions (mainly in the centre of Thailand) and to the floods at the end of August start of September.

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, weather conditions are favourable for winter cereals sowing that takes place in October and November and water reserves for irrigation are good. A minor delay in the seasonal rainfall onset is visible in Northern Syria and parts of Iraq. Conflict in northern Syria may further impact agricultural activities in the main production area of this country.

In Yemen, increased conflict in November continues to restrict livelihood activities and cereal production reported 30% below 5 years average (FEWSNET) together with high food prices further limits food access.

Central America and Caribbean Islands:  Close to Postrera harvest and after a Primera characterized by important losses in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, vegetation has mostly recovered due to beneficial weather conditions since mid-September in Central America and despite localized concerns in northern and central Honduras (i.e. Olancho, Colon, Morazan), where dryness of the last weeks still resulted in a visible below-average biomass.

In the Caribbean, harvest of the main season maize and rice is nearing completion under favorable conditions due to good weather conditions, whereas in Haiti the second season is ongoing and production is not expected to fully recover below-average levels of the 2019 spring season due to dry spells through the season, coupled with social unrest and the political crisis that have negatively affected agricultural activities.

East Africa: Most of the region has received abundant rainfall with more than twice the monthly average for October in Southern Ethiopia, North Eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia and South Sudan. The rainfall amounts and intensity have lead to localized floods across South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya causing displacement and damage to houses and infrastructure.  Second season crops that have been planted early, thanks to the timely beginning of the season, have in part been damaged by the excessive rainfall and floods. In rangeland areas, while above average rainfall is generally favorable for pastoral vegetation growth, there is also risk of loss of livestock through diseases. Significant livestock loss has been reported in northern Kenya, South Sudan and Somalia. In many of these areas, the food security situation is still suffering the impact of the previous season drought, and the strong rainfall might further delay food production of the next crop season. Main season crops in Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as second season crops in Uganda and northern Tanzania are generally in good conditions. Crop conditions in Sudan are slightly above average, whereas limiting factors for crop production are floods experienced in September and macro-economic problems.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative stages of summer crops are ongoing across the region under close to average weather conditions. A water deficit is concentrated in the central and eastern parts of South Africa, in Lesotho and eSwatini causing delayed planting. Parts of the region, such as Southern Angola, Botswana and Zimbabwe are experiencing the late effects of the 2018/19 agricultural season drought. In combination with above average temperatures for most of the dry period, led to low water availability and depleted rangelands, affecting livelihoods and livestock conditions, as well as wildlife. A decreased winter wheat production compared to last year is expected in the Western Cape region of South Africa (harvesting time), due to below-average rainfall and high temperatures from August to October. A drop in winter wheat output is also expected in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

West and Central Africa: Harvesting of the 2019 season is ongoing in the Sahel and production prospects are generally positive due to average rains during the season, except in  the Gambia and South-western Mauritania where below–average rains during the key stages of crop development have negatively affected agro-pastoral conditions, despite rain improvements in September and October. Pastoral production in Central and Northern parts of Senegal has also been affected by early dryness, whereas the impact on cropland is reported to be minimal due to a farmer support programs implemented by the government. Renewed conflict in north Burkina Faso has increased population displacement and insecurity remains a limitation for agricultural production in the lake Chad Basin area. Crop and rangeland conditions are favourable in the Gulf of Guinea, thanks to abundant rainfall received during the whole agricultural season. For the aggregated cereal output of 2019, production prospects are above the 5-year average for Nigeria and Cameroon, while for Benin the forecast is close to the 5-year average. However, food insecure pockets are located in northeast Nigeria and Extreme Nord of Cameroon due to conflict and insecurity.

North Africa: Winter season rainfall is slightly delayed as compared to normal in Morocco and western Algeria, but still within the normal window. In Egypt a slight delay of the winter crop season can be observed, due to a longer 2019 summer crop cycle.

Central and South Asia : In Central Asia, harvest of spring cereals is nearly complete and production is expected to be close to average except for the north western part of Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya) where spring cereals suffered from dry and hot conditions. 

In South Asia, conditions have been favourable for wet season rice and maize in Pakistan, as well as for winter cereals sowings in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In southeast Asia, Indonesia (mainly Java and south Sumatra) has had a particularly harsh "dry season" with less than half of the average rainfall over the last three months. As a result, irrigated rice area has been reduced and production of rain-fed crops is expected below average. Main season rice planting, which should start in October is also delayed by the late onset of the rainy season.

In the northern part of the region (Thailand, Cambodia, Laos) overall, production is expected to be slightly below average due to the drought at the start of the wet season which resulted in a reduced sown area (or to failed sowings) in few regions (mainly in the centre of Thailand) and to the floods at the end of August start of September. Many areas however show biomass levels close to or above average.

In North Korea, crop conditions are mixed with good prospects in the north of the rice bowl area and South Hamgyong and below average production is expected in the south of the rice bowl area  (North and south Hwanghae, Pyongyang) due to irregular rainfall at the start of the main season till August and delayed cereal growth. 

Middle-East: In the Middle-East, weather conditions are favourable for winter cereals sowing that takes place in October and November and water reserves for irrigation are good. Conflict in northern Syria may however impact agricultural activities in the main production area of this country.

In Yemen, sorghum and wheat have been harvested and despite favourable weather in the last three months, their production is reported to be below pre-conflict levels due to conflict, lack of inputs as well as Fall Armyworm.

Central America and Caribbean Islands:  After a poor Primera season in many areas of the dry corridor (Southern Honduras, Northwestern Nicaragua, Central Guatemala and Eastern El Salvador), weather conditions have substantially improved in the last weeks. The favourable weather conditions have benefitted planting of the Postrera season crops in Central America, including El Salvador and Nicaragua that had experienced an initial delay in rainfall onset. Average to above-average rains have benefited crops that are in vegetative to reproductive stage despite some localized flooding in coastal areas of El Salvador, parts of western Honduras and western Nicaragua.

The November assessment will be released in the last week of November 2019

East Africa: In Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, the main crop season is generally progressing well and with adequate water supply, except for localised rainfall deficits in July in north/east Ethiopia and flooding in Eastern Sudan causing crop losses mainly in White Nile, Sennar, and Kassala (see the ASAP September special focus for more info). In the southern part of the region, the April/June cereal production results are mixed, due to a delayed onset of rainfall. Most severely affected is Somalia, with expected cereal production of only 50% of the 5-year average (FSNAU). In Kenya, the May/June rainfall improvements were able to compensate for early season dryness in the central highlands and in the high-potential western crop areas, but production was poor in the eastern and coastal parts of the country and maize prices have been increasing markedly since April. Uganda has received abundant rainfall since June, leading crop conditions recovery, but due to low planted area and irregular rainfall distribution, the final national production is expected below average (by 30% in the Karamoja region according to FAO GIEWS). The improved water availability since June has favoured rangeland recovery in most pastoral areas of the region, but due to the shortened rainy season, many of those areas are at risk of early vegetation depletion (e.g. north/eastern and central Kenya, southern and central Somalia). Prospects for 2019 production in South Sudan are forecasted slightly above 2018 levels due to favorable agro-climatic conditions. Nevertheless, persistent widespread insecurity and conflict incidents continue to hamper agricultural activities and prospects for 2019 remain below the pre-conflict levels. The 53rd GHACOF statement predicts generally above average rainfall for the second rainy season starting in October, but close monitoring for regions that experienced multiple droughts in the last 3 years remains crucial.

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa, with total regional cereal production decreased by 9% compared to last year’s close-to-average output. Towards the end of the winter cropping season, wheat and barley production prospects are above the 5-year average in South Africa, while Zimbabwe and Zambia are expecting a drop in the wheat output. In October, the region will start preparations for the 2019/20 summer crop planting and the SARCOF forecast (Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum) points to adequate rainfall during the first half of the season for parts of Southern Africa region (SARDC).

West and Central Africa: Dry conditions are hampering agricultural production in large parts of Senegal, Gambia and southern Mauritania, despite an improvement in rainfall from mid-August. The late onset of the rainy season is expected to have reduced areas planted and to lead to a shortened crop season with below-average yields. In pastoral areas, the water deficit is also causing abnormal dryness and low pasture availability. In the northern part of Burkina Faso, insecurity and displacement are reducing agricultural activities and limiting pastoral movements, according to the PREGEC meeting held in Accra in September 2019. In the rest of the region, crop conditions are generally favourable and the first season maize harvest in the Gulf of Guinea is expected to be close-to-average. Heavy rains in late August caused overflow of the Niger River and triggered floods causing damage of standing crops and loss of livelihoods in areas of Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Chad.  

North Africa: The region is generally out of season. The 2018/2019 winter crop achieved good or very good production levels in the central and eastern parts of the region, whereas production in Morocco was hampered by drought in several parts of the country. Summer crops in Egypt show close-to-average crop conditions despite above average temperatures.

Central and South Asia : In Central Asia, spring cereals are being harvested and production prospects are favourable except for the north/western part of Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya) where spring cereals production is expected to be below average as a result of dry conditions. 

In south Asia, more specifically Pakistan, conditions have been favourable for wet season rice. 

South-East and Eastern Asia: In southeast Asia, after a delayed start of the season, especially in the northeast Thailand and northwest of Cambodia due to drought since early spring, tropical storms Podul and Kajiki brought beneficial rain at the end of August - start of September. These storms also caused localized flooding in northeast Thailand, southern Lao, Cambodia along the Mekong and Tonle Sap rivers and in central Vietnam.

Despite this rainfall, some drought dependent reduction is expected in the production of rainfed crops and irrigated rice for Thailand and Cambodia. 

In North Korea, crop biomass is now above average also in the southern half of the rice bowl area. Field observations are however needed to check if the delayed start of rice and maize growth has had a negative impact on production. In addition to drier than average conditions till July, in early September, the southern provinces were hit by Typhoon Lingling, which caused damage to 46,000 ha of farmland according to the government.

Middle East: In the Middle East, water reservoirs have been refilled and land is being prepared for the sowing of winter cereals. In Yemen, despite favourable weather in the last three months, the production of sorghum and wheat is expected to be clearly below pre-conflict levels as a result of conflict and reported Fall Armyworm infestation.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Primera season harvest is now complete and poor production has been reported across many areas over the dry corridor. Despite a timely onset of the season, the prolonged dry spells during key growth stages resulted in crop losses of maize and beans and in some cases complete crop failure, mainly for subsistence farmers. Main concerns are localized in southern Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua where losses of up to more than 40% of the national production have been reported. A significant yield reduction resulted also in central Guatemala and eastern El Salvador, whereas the latter is expected to reach average national production levels.

Sowing of Postrera crops, which will be important for food security due to the poor Primera season, is delayed due to rain deficits mainly in Nicaragua and El Salvador.

Dry conditions in the last month caused crop conditions deterioration in Centre and Ouest Haiti. Meanwhile, rice harvesting in  main rice production region of Artibonite is ongoing under favorable conditions.

East Africa: In Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, the main crop season is generally progressing well and with adequate water supply, except for localised rainfall deficits in July in northern Ethiopia and localised flooding in Sudan. In the southern part of the region, the April/June cereal production results are mixed, due to a delayed onset of rainfall. Most severely affected is Somalia, with expected cereal production of only 50% of the 5-year average (FSNAU), while pastoral vegetation benefited from late rainfall. In Kenya, the May/June rainfall improvements were able to compensate for early season dryness in the central highlands and in the high-potential western crop areas, but production was poor in the eastern and coastal parts of the country and maize prices have been increasing markedly since April. Uganda has received abundant rainfall since June, which was late for the Central region and part of the Northern, while in Karamoja crop conditions recovered after late planting. The improved water availability since June has favoured rangeland recovery in most pastoral areas of the region, but due to the shortened rainy season, many of those areas are at risk of early vegetation depletion (e.g. north-eastern and central Kenya, southern and central Somalia). In South Sudan, agro-climatic conditions have been generally favourable since mid-May, but planted areas are low (as compared to pre-conflict levels) due to the negative impact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in Southern Africa, with total regional cereal production decreased by 9% compared to last year’s close-to-average output. Good vegetation conditions are observed for the winter wheat in South Africa, and positive production prospects are reported. Zimbabwe, which experienced very low main season production earlier this year, is now facing challenges with water availability for winter crop irrigation.

West and Central Africa: Dry conditions are hampering agricultural production in large parts of Senegal, Gambia and southern Mauritania, despite an improvement in rainfall from mid-August. The late onset of the rainy season is expected to have reduced areas planted and to lead to a shortened crop season with below-average yields. In pastoral areas, the water deficit is also causing abnormal dryness and low pasture availability. In the northern part of Burkina Faso, insecurity and displacement are reducing agricultural activities and limiting pastoral movements, according to a recent FEWS NET report. In the rest of the region, crop conditions are generally favourable and the first season maize harvest in the Gulf of Guinea is expected to be close-to-average. Crop conditions have recovered in central Nigeria and southern Chad, after a slight early season rainfall deficit in June.

North Africa: The region is generally out of season. The 2018/2019 winter crop achieved good or very good production levels in the central and eastern parts of the region, whereas production in Morocco was hampered by drought in several parts of the country. Summer crops in Egypt show close-to-average crop conditions.

Middle East: In the Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Iran), winter cereals have been harvested and production is estimated to be significantly higher than in 2018 thanks to abundant rainfall throughout the season.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects for spring cereals are favourable, except in the north-western part of Kazakhstan (in particular Kustanayskaya), where spring cereal production is expected to be reduced due to erratic rainfall since March.  

In South Asia, kharif crops in Pakistan have benefited from good monsoon rainfall since the end of July/start of August, which also resulted in floods and landslides in various parts of the country.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In south-east Asia, especially in central and north-east Thailand and north-west Cambodia, the production of rainfed crops and in some parts of irrigated rice is expected to be reduced as a result of the drought that has affected the region since the start of the year. The impact of this drought on total production is however difficult to assess, as rainy season rice is still being planted. In central Thailand, reservoirs still have much lower water levels than in 2018.

In North Korea, the situation appears to be mixed: whereas rice and maize crops are in good condition in the northern part of the rice bowl area (Pyongan Bukto and Namdo), the southern part (Hwanghae Namdo and Bukto and Pyongyang Si) shows below-average crop biomass levels and some delay in rice growth. Overall, the production limitations do not appear critical, although water reservoirs did not refill to the level of 2018.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the primera season is ongoing and final yields are expected to be average to below-average in the Dry Corridor. Maize and bean production will be below-average in most countries of the region due to prolonged dry spells, irregular rainfall distribution and above-average temperatures since the beginning of the season. Continued dry conditions in July have negatively impacted crops at early stages of development causing yield reductions, mainly for subsistence farmers.

A significant reduction in production has been reported by government sources for southern Honduras (El Paraíso, Choluteca, Valle and Morazán) and central and northern Nicaragua (Chinandega, Estelí, León and Madriz). Production prospects in El Salvador and Guatemala are average for the moment, despite localised production shortfalls.

Poor production of the main maize and bean season in Haiti was caused by below-average rains. Dry conditions have persisted in drought-prone areas during August, particularly in the southern Haitian Peninsula (Nippes and Sud), with negative impacts on summer crop development. Meanwhile, the main season rice harvest is ongoing and prospects are favourable in the key rice-producing region of Artibonite.

East Africa: In the northern part of the region including Sudan, central and northern Ethiopia and Eritrea, the crop season is generally progressing well and with adequate water supply. In the southern part of the region, the April/June season cereal production results are mixed, due to a delayed onset of the rainy season. Most severely affected is Somalia, with an expected cereal production of only 50% of the 5 years average (FSNAU). In Kenya, the May/June rainfall improvements were able to compensate for early season dryness in the central highlands and in the high-potential western crop areas, but production was poor in the eastern and coastal parts of the country and maize prices have been increasing markedly since April. Uganda has received torrential rainfall in June, but crop production was in any case negatively affected by the early season drought and is estimated 12% below the 5 years average (FAO GIEWS). The improved water availability in June/July has favored temporary rangeland recovery in most pastoral areas of the region, but due to the shortened rainy season, many of those areas are at risk of early vegetation depletion (e.g. north eastern and central Kenya, southern and central Somalia, south/eastern Ethiopia). In South Sudan rainfall has also improved since mid-May, but planted areas remain low due to the negative impact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

Southern Africa: As the harvest is finalizing across the region, the extreme weather events experienced during the 2018/19 agricultural season caused significant agricultural production shortfalls. The central and western part of the region experienced the driest rainy season since 1981, while the east coast was devastated by two cyclones within six weeks close to harvest time. The combination of severe drought and the destruction brought by cyclones depressed the regional cereal production by 9% compared to the 5 years average output. Even the most important maize suppliers in the region, including South Africa and Zambia, experienced diminished maize production driven by unfavorable weather. In Mozambique both the agricultural, livestock and fishing sectors were significantly affected by the two consecutive cyclones, and currently the conflict in the north is further exacerbating people’s access to food. Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia, all cereals import-dependent countries, experienced a sharp decline in the 2018/19 cereal output, while also rangelands were negatively impacted by drought. In Zimbabwe the volatile economic situation, coupled with the reduced cereal harvest resulted in large spikes in the prices of staple food commodities such as wheat flour and bread, further aggravating the already difficult food security situation. The winter wheat conditions in the Western Cape of South Africa are close to average, with an increase in the area planted leading to optimistic production prospects for the harvest that will start in October.

West and Central Africa: Early season drought continues in Senegal, The Gambia and part of Guinea Bissau, increasing the risk of reduced planted areas. The rainfall onset is also slightly delayed in Southern Mauretania. In the rest of the region, crop conditions are generally favorable. Crop conditions are improving in central Nigeria and southern Chad, after a slight early season rainfall deficit in June.

North Africa: The region is generally out of season and the 2018/2019 winter crop achieved good or very good production levels in the central and eastern parts of the region, whereas production in Morocco was hampered by drought in several parts of the country.

Middle-East: In the Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Iran), winter cereals harvest is finishing and prospects are good thanks to abundant rainfall over the season.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, prospects for spring cereals are favorable thanks to good weather conditions, except in the north western part of Kazakhstan (e.g. Kustanayskaya), where a dry spell and above average temperatures may affect spring cereals. 

In South Asia, below average rainfall was received in Sindh (Pakistan) with no visible impact however on irrigated summer crops (kharif crops). In Afghanistan, winter cereals harvest is expected to be good.

South-East Asia: In southeast Asia, a region including Myanmar, parts of Thailand, northwestern Lao, northern Cambodia has been affected by drought since June with above average temperatures. North and north east Thailand are the main regions affected, with below average biomass levels for rainfed crops and pastures, and a reduced area (or delayed planting) of main season irrigated rice. Water levels in reservoirs are low and the government has asked farmers to delay main season rice planting or opt for less water intensive crops and requested neighbor countries to release water from upstream reservoirs. This drought is considered to be the worst of the last 10 years by the Thai meteorological department.

In North Korea, crop conditions look good in the north of the rice bowl area (Pyongan Bukto and Pyongan Namdo) despite below average rainfall for the last month, whereas the southern provinces of the rice bowl (Hwanghae Bukto and Hwanghae Namdo), show below average biomass levels for rainfed crops (maize), delayed rice growth and low water levels in the reservoirs, as a result of poor rainfall since 20th of June. This situation is worrying if monsoon rainfall does not come soon.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Planting of the maize and bean primera crops is ongoing under mixed conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. Concern remains in the Dry Corridor areas and southern Haiti, due to below-average and irregularly distributed rainfall, coupled with above average temperatures since the beginning of the season.

Negative impact on vegetation conditions is not yet visible and if rains in the following weeks improve, vegetation should be able to recover from the initial dryness. Otherwise, there is risk of production losses for the primera season.

The August assessment will be released in the first week of September 2019 

East Africa: The main crop season has started in time and with enough rainfall in the northern part of the region including Sudan and the central and northern parts of Ethiopia and Eritrea. The southern part of the region has an April-June crop season, but despite improved late rainfall in May and June, the crop and rangeland production outlooks remain poor due to the late onset of rainfall and the cumulative rainfall deficits at the end of the season. This is the case for Southern Somalia, the southern Belg season areas in Ethiopia, south/east and coastal Kenya, north/east Uganda, and north/east Tanzania. The improvement in May/June rainfall in Kenya has compensated for early season dryness in the central highlands and in the western crop areas with their potential high yields. Similar dynamics can be seen in southern and western Uganda whereas decreased cereal production can be expected in the north and east. Crop conditions in Somalia have improved in the north and west and off-season cropping is taking place in southern riverine areas where river water levels have increased thanks to good rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. However, national level crop production is expected to be significantly below average. The improved availability of water in June has favoured temporary rangeland recovery in most pastoral areas of the region, but due to the shortened rainy season, many of those areas are at risk of early vegetation depletion (e.g., north-eastern and central Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia). Rainfall in South Sudan has also improved since mid-May, but part of the centre and north still shows negative vegetation anomalies.

Southern Africa: Preliminary reports at the end of the harvesting period indicate a decrease in cereal production and particularly maize, the most important staple crop in the region, due to the extreme weather shocks experienced during the 2018/19 agricultural season. The most seriously affected country is Mozambique, which experienced the combined effects of two cyclones in the central and northern parts in March/April and drought in the southern semiarid areas. Both the agricultural and the fishing sectors have been damaged, leaving households facing a food security emergency. Croplands and rangelands in Namibia received little to no rain during the 2018/19 season and the country declared a state of emergency in May. The fiscal challenges in Zimbabwe coupled with the drought in the central and southern part of the country and the destruction that cyclone Idai brought to croplands in two districts are hampering food security. Even the most important maize suppliers of the region, including South Africa and Zambia, are expecting a decrease in crop production of more than 10% compared to last year. A positive national level cereal outlook is expected in Malawi despite localized production shortfalls in the south of the country. According to FEWSNET, in most markets of the region “maize grain is circulating from surplus to deficit areas and prices are currently stable in most markets although above the five-year average and last year’s prices”.

North Africa: The crop season was generally very good or good in the central and eastern parts of the region, whereas production in Morocco was hampered by drought in several parts of the country. According to the latest MARS bulletin in June, average national yields in Morocco are 23% below the 5-year average for wheat and 28% for barley. The western part of Algeria also experienced drought conditions but this was well compensated for by above average production in the centre and east. Cereal production in Tunisia is above average, especially for wheat (the wheat yield is 20% above the 5-year average).

West and Central Africa: Crop conditions are generally favourable in the bi-modal parts of the region. A slight rainfall deficit in April/May caused initial seasonal delay in central Nigeria and southern Chad but conditions are improving. Early season dryness is also visible in the Gambia, southern Senegal, and in the coastal areas of the Guineas, but it is still very early in the season to detect any impact on vegetation.

Middle-East: In the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Iran), the harvest of winter cereals has started, and prospects are good thanks to abundant rainfall since October 2018. Above average rainfall in Yemen in June caused flash floods which affected more than 70,000 people in 10 governorates from Hajjah in the northwest to the southern coastal regions of Taizz, Lahj, and Hadramaut (cf. https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ff-2019-000054-yem). Despite this rain, crop biomass (sorghum) probably remains below average in Taizz due to the combined effect of the April-May dry spell and conflict.

Central and South Asia: Thanks to good rainfall over most regions in Central Asia, winter cereal and pasture production is expected to be very good. Eastern Uzbekistan (especially Fergana) has received below average rainfall over the last three months, but winter cereals are in good condition. In Kazakhstan, spring cereals are also growing under favourable conditions except in the northwest of the country (Aktyubinskaya, Kustanayskaya) where the biomass of cereals is below average as a result of erratic rainfall since early May.

In South Asia, the growth of kharif crops in Pakistan (irrigated summer crops) has started under normal conditions. The harvesting of winter cereals is finishing in Afghanistan and the prospects are favourable in the whole country.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia, after a dry and hot spring (January-April period) in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, seasonal rainfall arrived at the end of May - June and planting of wet season rice has started late compared to 2018. The dry season rice production is expected to be lower than in Thailand in 2018 (centre and north) and Cambodia as a result of a reduced area of irrigated rice due to low water in the reservoirs.

The situation in North Korea improved thanks to the good rains of June over the rice bowl area and the flooded rice areas are now similar to those of 2018. While crop conditions are good in the north (Pyongan Bukto and Pyongan Namdo) thanks to abundant rainfall in June, the southern provinces of the rice bowl (Hwanghae Bukto and Hwanghae Namdo) show a delayed growth of rice, mostly the result of late planting (compared to 2018) caused by low water levels in reservoirs. The monsoon rains expected for July should refill these reservoirs.

Central America and the Caribbean islands: Planting of the primera season is underway in Central America and performance is mixed at this early stage due to dry spells in April and a slight delay of the onset of rain followed by heavy rainfall at the end of May that caused localized flooding in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Despite a clear improvement of conditions due to positive rains in May, some areas in the Dry Corridor experienced more than five days without rain and high temperatures in June could negatively affect cropland development and decrease soil moisture. Rainfall monitoring in the coming weeks will be crucial to the primera season getting well established.

The 2019 spring maize and bean season harvest is underway in Haiti and production forecasts are lower due to the impact of early season dryness and irregular rainfall in Haiti’s Nord Est and Centre regions whereas harvest forecasts are better for the irrigated plains. Conditions have deteriorated in the south since last month due to dryness. In Cuba, the harvest of the minor season has been completed in the main producing Granma region and prospects are about average.

Southern Africa: At harvest time the region is suffering the consequences of prolonged drought in crop and rangeland areas and of extreme weather events. Crop production prospects in most countries are hampered by the impacts of the delayed rainfall onset and by the prolonged dry spells that followed. Even the most important maize suppliers of the region, including South Africa and Zambia, are expecting a crop production decline of more than 10% as compared to last year. The export ban on maize and maize meal put in place by Zambia is a symptom for a possibly challenging regional maize supply situation in late 2019/early 2020. Namibia has declared a state of emergency due to the drought that has affected the 2018/2019 season since the beginning, causing failure of rain-fed crops and increased livestock mortality. Poor pastoral conditions are reducing food security coping strategies in Zimbabwe and threatening pastoral livelihoods in Botswana. In Mozambique, the agricultural sector was severely damaged by the two tropical cyclones that hit the country within 6 weeks in March/April, and the diminished production prospects and labor opportunities are adding further pressure to food security in the area. In contrast, Malawi is expecting an increase in the maize production compared with last year, despite localized areas of low production and increased risk of food insecurity in the south, due to floods caused by Cyclone Idai.

East Africa: During May the severe drought conditions that have caused delayed planting, low areas and below average crop conditions across East Africa have persisted. In Ethiopia this is causing low Belg season production prospects in the southern part of the country, whereas seasonal forecasts for the main season (from June to September) also point to below average rainfall, increasing the risk of food insecurity in the second half of 2019. Close to the end of the main rainy season, most of Somalia has received insufficient rains for normal crop growth and crop production is expected to be 40-50% below average due to limited areas planted and crop failure in the main producing areas in Bay (sorghum), Lower Shabelle (Maize) and in the North West. Pastoral areas are subject to rapid vegetation degradation and low water availability for livestock. Marginal agricultural crop areas in Kenya experienced crop failure, while crop growth is negatively affected by dry conditions also in the high potential areas in the West and in the Rift Valley and drought is hampering pastures productivity in the semi-arid northern and eastern parts of the country. Most of Uganda, and in particular the north/eastern part of the country, including Karamoja, has received insufficient rainfall and experienced abnormally high temperatures in the last 3 months, increasing the risk of low crop production and low pastures availability. According to seasonal rainfall forecasts just released by the 52nd GHACOF, the rainfall situation is likely to improve for the main season in western Kenya, Sudan and parts of Uganda. But the drought conditions experienced so far will in any case deteriorate food security conditions and increase the number of people in IPC phase 3 or higher, across vulnerable areas in Somalia, South Sudan and parts of Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

North Africa: Close to the end of the main cereal season in Morocco, the impact of high temperatures and prolonged drought appears more severe and spatially extended than previously reported. According to the MARS yield forecast issued on the 20th of May, average national yields are 22% below the 5 years average for wheat and 30% for barley. Crop conditions remain overall favorable in eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Parts of Tunisia experienced exceptional rainfall in March leading to water logging and potential localized crop damage.

West and Central Africa: First season maize crop conditions are generally favorable in the bi-modal parts of the region. However, a slight rainfall deficit in April/May is showing first impacts on vegetation and possible delays in planting in southern Chad, parts of Nigeria (Niger, Kwara, Kaduna regions), northern parts of: Ghana, Benin, Togo and Cameroon.

Middle-East: In the Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Iran), prospects continue to be favourable for winter cereals and pastures thanks to abundant rainfall since October 2018.

Central and South Asia: In central Asia rainfall was also abundant over most regions and winter cereals and pastures production is expected to be very good. In Eastern Uzbekistan (Namagan, Andijan and Fergana), winter cereals are also in good conditions despite below average rainfall over the last three months.

In South Asia, the harvest of rabi crops (winter cereals) in Pakistan is about to finish with good production levels. In Afghanistan, weather conditions have been favourable in most regions, except Jawzjan in the north were biomass levels are below average. In the centre-east of the country (from Ghor to Kabul & Paktya), winter cereals and pastures, whose growth has been slowed down by snow cover and low temperatures in February March, have recovered and prospects are now favourable.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia, drier than average conditions (linked to El Niño according to the Thai Meteorological Department) and high temperatures, have affected a region centered on Thailand and extending to Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao. The late arrival of summer rains is delaying the planting of main season rice while dry season rice production is expected to be lower than in 2018 in Thailand as a result of a reduced area of irrigated rice (following second season-rice plantation quota set by the Thai government to preserve water reservoirs). In the Philippines, the start of the main season rice is delayed in the centre of the country as farmers wait for the start of the rain season.

In North Korea there is concern for early season crops (wheat, barley and potato): the southern half of the rice bowl area (i.e. Hwanghae Bukto, Hwanghae Namdo and Pyongyang-Si) received half of its normal rain over the last month and the lack of snow cover during winter over most regions exposed wheat and barley to freezing temperatures. This comes in addition to a poor 2018 harvest of rice and maize, as reported by FAO/WFP in May 2019. Moreover, at end of May, the area of flooded rice fields in the rice bowl area is clearly lower than in 2018.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Planting of the primera season is underway in Central America with a slight delay of the season, mainly in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Uneven rainfall distribution and some dry spells in April coupled with high temperatures, had reduced moisture of soils at very early stages of the season. The situation has recovered due to positive rains received in May.

In Haiti, spring season is ongoing with some remaining concerns in Northeastern and Central regions as a consequence of the poor early season rainfall performance.

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season is ending with the harvest of summer crops starting in April. The region experienced a delayed onset of rains, followed by irregular rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells between mid-February and end of March. This resulted in reduced planted areas, poor germination and permanent wilting of crops in many parts of the region. Important maize suppliers of the region, such as South Africa and Zambia were affected by drought conditions and production prospects especially in southern Zambia are below-average. Already vulnerable and food insecure areas in southern Angola, northern Namibia and eastern Botswana experienced widespread rainfall deficits during most of the agricultural season, limiting crop production of 2018/2019. Poor rainfall conditions deteriorated pastoral conditions, leading to livestock deaths and further exacerbating food security, especially in Namibia, Zimbabwe and Botswana. Moreover, the eastern part of the region was hit by two major cyclones in 6 weeks, cyclone Idai and cyclone Kenneth, that brought torrential rains, strong winds and flooding, that resulted in widespread destruction of cropping areas, infrastructure and homes, reducing production prospects and increasing food insecurity.

East Africa: Drought conditions with little rainfall and high temperatures have continued and intensified in late March and April in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Tanzania. This confirms the below average seasonal forecast and is linked to major recent tropical storms and cyclones like Iday and Kenneth, diverting atmospheric moisture southwards. In southern Ethiopia (mainly in Oromia and SNNP states), Belg season areas show below average crop conditions and pastoral areas are affected by prolonged drought. Southern Somalia has received practically no Gu rainfall (by 20th of April) increasing the risk of another failed crop season after the recent droughts in 2017 and failed 2018 short rains. In Kenya, early season rainfall deficit is causing delayed planting and low crop areas in the west and does already show a negative impact on crop and rangeland conditions in the center, southern and coastal areas. Most of Uganda, and in particular the northern part of the country, has received less than 80% of seasonal rainfall and experienced high temperatures in the last 2 months, increasing the risk of low crop production and low pastures availability. Although rainfall in the region has increased in late April, it is very likely that seasonal totals will remain significantly below average.

North Africa: Rainfall has improved in Morocco in March and April and yield forecasts according to the MARS bulletin are below average only for barley, due to prolonged drought conditions in the Oriental region. Crop conditions remain overall favorable in eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Parts of Tunisia experienced exceptional rainfall in March leading to water logging and potential localized crop damage.

West and Central Africa: First season maize planting started in the bi-seasonal parts of the region under generally favorable agro-climatic conditions. A slight delay in the start of the main season in northern was caused by high temperatures and below average rainfall in late March and April in northern Ghana, Togo and Benin.

Middle-East: From a climatic point of view prospects are favorable for winter cereals and pastures, thanks to above average rainfall since October 2018. In Iran, it is too early to assess the impact of floods on crop production. 

Central and South Asia: prospects for winter cereals and pasture production are very favorable thanks to abundant rainfall over most regions. Only eastern Uzbekistan received lower than average rainfall but winter cereals appear to be in good conditions. 

South Asia (Pakistan and Afghanistan) also received abundant rainfall that will benefit winter cereals and pastures. However in the centre-east of Afghanistan (from Ghor to Kabul and from Bamyan to Paktika), winter cereals growth is delayed, probably because of the cold spell of February March over the region.

South-East Asia: Dry season rice production is expected to be below average as a result of reduction in the sown areas in central and north eastern Thailand (Suphanburi, Lopburi, Nakhon R., Khon Kaen, Maha Sarakham) and north Cambodia (Battambang). In the whole region rainfall has been below average and temperatures above average by 1.5 to 4 degrees C since November 2018. In Thailand, at the national level, the secondary season production drop is however more than off-set by the favorable 2018 main season. The southern half of Lao has also suffered from these abnormally dry conditions.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Land preparation for the primera season, which will start next month, is underway, with slightly above average temperatures and below average rainfall across Central America. In the Caribbean, main season rice planting started in Cuba and conditions are favorable thanks to close to average rains. In Haiti the spring season is ongoing and some concern remains in Centre, Nord and Nord Est regions, due to early season dryness and moisture deficits.

 

Southern Africa: The central and western parts of the region are experiencing enduring rainfall deficits and drought conditions, whereas the eastern part was severely hit by heavy rains, floods and strong winds caused by Cyclone Idai. Major flooding in central Mozambique and southern Malawi has claimed human lives and caused  damage to infrastructure and homes, whereas the storm damages extend beyond the flooded areas and include Eastern Zimbabwe. The destruction of standing crops in the 3 countries will cause reduced food production and contribute to increased food insecurity and health risks.

Significantly below average and irregular rainfall since the start of the agricultural season have deteriorated crop conditions in southern Angola, northern Namibia, eastern Botswana, southern Zambia and Lesotho. Southern Zambia in particular is experiencing widespread crop failure due to a prolonged dry spell in February/March.  The central key producing regions of South Africa received beneficial rainfall in March, preventing further damage to the crops. Poor pastoral conditions resulting from prolonged dry spells and high temperatures are observed across Namibia, in western Zimbabwe and western South Africa.

More information and maps about the areas concerned by cyclone Idai and by the extreme drought in Zambia’s Southern region can be found in the March 2019 Special Focus https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/files/special_focus_2019_03.pdf

 

East Africa: Planting in the bi-modal areas of the region is generally delayed by rainfall deficits and high temperatures affecting parts of: Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Tanzania. According to the updated GHACOF seasonal rainfall forecast, the cumulated seasonal rainfall will remain below average for most of the region and tropical storms and cyclones in Southern Africa (such as Idai) are diverting atmospheric moisture southwards. In southern Ethiopia, Belg season areas show below average crop conditions and pastoral areas are affected by prolonged drought. In Somalia insufficient rainfall will further aggravate the impact of low crop and pastures production of the 2018/2019 short rains. In Kenya early season rainfall deficit is causing delayed planting and low crop areas in the west and is also posing at risk marginal agricultural and pastoral activities in the south east and coastal parts of the country.

 

North Africa: Above average mean temperatures and decreased rainfall starting in the last dekad of February and continuing through March are putting at risk the initially very favorable crop conditions in Eastern and Southern Morocco and to some extent also in Western Algeria. Crop conditions remain favorable in Eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt.

West and Central Africa: First season maize planting started in the bi-seasonal parts of the region under generally favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Middle-East: In the Middle East, conditions continue to be very favorable to the growth of winter cereals and pastures thanks to above average rainfall since October 2018. Localized flash floods occurred in March in Iran, Iraq and northern Syria and caused life losses as well as damage to infrastructure, no information is available on crop damage.

Central and South Asia: In Central and South Asia, conditions have been favorable to winter cereals overall and despite below average precipitation, in particular in March, in the eastern half of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan, sowing of spring cereals will start in April with favorable temperatures (about 2 degrees C above average) and moisture conditions, especially in the northern Oblasts. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, most regions received above average precipitations that will benefit winter and spring crops as well as pastures. In Afghanistan however, vegetation growth is delayed in a large area going from the centre (Ghor, Daykundi) to the east (Ghazni, Paktika, Paktya, Kabul) due to temperatures colder than average by 3 to 8 degrees C. 

 

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia, irrigated dry season rice, which is approaching harvest time, appears to be in good conditions in continental south-east Asia as well as in the northern Philippines. However below average rainfall (as low as 50% of the average rainfall of the last 3 months) and 2-4 degrees C above average temperatures have affected natural vegetation and rain-fed crops in central and north-eastern Thailand as well as south Lao. In Indonesia, wet-season rice has been benefiting from abundant rainfall since October - November 2018

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Apante bean season is complete in Nicaragua and Guatemala with close to average prospects due to good rains received. In Haiti, planting of spring season maize and beans is underway with some concerns due to early season dryness in the North-west and Central regions, where planting is delayed.

 

East Africa: Low October-December rainfall, followed by abnormally high temperatures since January 2019, is continuing to cause rapid deterioration of pastoral resources in southern Sudan, northern and eastern Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia, semi-arid pastoral areas in Kenya and Karamoja (Uganda). This is driving food prices upwards across the region and further aggravating the severity of some of the most troubling ongoing food crises, such as the ones taking place in South Sudan and Somalia. Seasonal rainfall forecasts indicate above-average main season rainfall in 2019 for most of the region (Source: http://www.icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf), but the potential positive effects of the next crop season will not alleviate food security problems before mid-2019.

Southern Africa: The late onset of rainfall in the first part of the season, and the erratic spatial and temporal distribution in December to February, led to reductions in the planted area or poor crop development in many parts of the region, mainly in central South Africa, southern Angola, northern Namibia, central and southern Zimbabwe and Lesotho. In South Africa, the area planted is 10% less than the 10-year average; however improved rainfall since the beginning of February in the central provinces of North West and Free State may prevent further damage to crop development. Pastoral areas across Namibia, in western Botswana and in parts of South Africa continue to deteriorate due to moisture deficits. The main cereal-producing regions in Angola, and crop areas in Malawi, northern and central Mozambique and Swaziland, continue to receive beneficial rainfall and are progressing well. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability (SPP) analysis for February-April, below-average rainfall is expected in southern Angola, most of Namibia, parts of western and eastern Botswana, southern Zambia and central Mozambique, whereas average rainfall is expected in central and eastern South Africa, Zambia, northern Mozambique and Malawi.

North Africa: Conditions for crop and rangeland vegetation continue to be generally above-average in the region, thanks to above-average rainfall and favourable temperature conditions. However, in localised areas of Morocco (Oriental and Marrakech regions), vegetation conditions have been adversely affected by high temperatures and low rainfall since January.

West and Central Africa: No relevant change since last month.

Middle East: Throughout the region, conditions are very favourable for the growth of winter cereals and pastures thanks to very good rainfall since October 2018, which has even caused local floods, for example in western Iran at the end of January.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, conditions are favourable for (still dormant) winter cereals thanks to good precipitation over this winter. In Afghanistan, in Jawzjan (north of the country) alone, the growth of winter crops appears delayed with respect to the average. In Pakistan, moisture conditions in the southern provinces have also improved compared to the dry situation observed up to the end of 2018, and localised floods were even reported in Punjab and Balochistan in mid-February.

South-East Asia: In continental South-East Asia, conditions are favourable for dry season rice, except in central Thailand where rainfall has been below-average since mid-January; this is also the case in northern Philippines at the start of the dry season rice.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Dry conditions prevailed in February, with below-average rainfall observed across Central America, particularly along the Atlantic Basin. Nevertheless, the harvest of the Apante season is not expected to be seriously affected in Guatemala and Nicaragua, due to adequate rainfall early in the season. The rest of Central America is currently out of season.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of March 2019.

East Africa: Crop production of the second season is below-average in Somalia, marginal areas in Kenya and localized areas in Ethiopia, mainly due to irregular rainfall distribution between October and December 2018. Low short season rainfall followed by high temperatures in the dry season (December and January) is leading to rapid deterioration of pastoral vegetation productivity in Southern Sudan, north/east Somalia, semi-arid pastoral areas in Kenya and Karamoja (Uganda). Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season in 2018, but in Sudan production prospects are below-average due to high input prices and early season flood damage.

Southern Africa: Crop conditions reflect a mixed situation across the region with above-average rainfall in Malawi, Northern Mozambique, north/east Zambia and early-season dry conditions in South Africa, Namibia, southern Angola. In January, rainfall deficits worsened, increasing their impact on croplands and pastures in southern Angola and southwestern Zimbabwe. The irregular rainfall distribution hampers crop development in the main cereal-producing regions of the central part of South Africa, whereas rangelands conditions across the country are reported to be between average and poor. Below-average crop conditions can be observed also in the eastern part of Botswana and in the northern part of Namibia, while below-average rangeland conditions occurred in the western part of Botswana and across most regions in Namibia. Well above-average rainfall was received in Mozambique, Malawi, northeastern Zimbabwe and northeast Zambia and has led to good crop and rangeland conditions in these areas. However, heavy rainfall has led to flooding in some parts of Mozambique and Malawi.  According to seasonal rainfall outlook (NOOA, CPC, 10 January 2019), parts of the region (southern Angola, Namibia, western Botswana, southern Zambia, Mozambique), are forecasted to receive below-average rainfall until the end of March 2019.

North Africa: Rainfall amounts have increased again in January after a dry period in December and agro-climatic conditions are favorable in the whole area for winter crop development. Crop and rangeland vegetation conditions are generally above average and there is no visible negative impact of the December rainfall deficit.

West and Central Africa: The main 2018 season in the Sahel was generally positive thanks to abundant rainfall. Nigeria has achieved an above average 2018 production, with concerns remaining for areas hit by flooding in September and because of internal displacement and impacts of the ongoing conflict in the North East.

Middle-East: In the middle east, winter cereals and pastures are in very good conditions following the heavy rains of end of November - December. 

Central and South Asia: In central and South Asia, crop conditions are generally favourable, in particular in Afghanistan with above average temperatures since end of November and good rainfall since the start of January in the northern and western provinces, stricken by the 2018 drought. Similarly good conditions are observed in Pakistan, where even the southern provinces (Sindh and Balochistan), affected by drought in 2018, show good crop biomass levels. 

South-East Asia: Conditions appear favourable for the start of the dry season rice on the continent and the main season rice for Indonesia.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: At the end of the postrera season in Central America, despite some crop losses as result of a delayed onset of the season and dry spells from mid-June to August, generally favorable outcomes are expected thanks to late season improvements since September. As a result, the 2018 aggregate cereal production in Central America and Caribbean is forecast at 44.2 million tons, lower than 2017 (-1.7%), but above the previous five-year average (43.4 million tons). According to FAO, Guatemala’s production is estimated at an average level of 1.9 million tons, while the aggregate production in El Salvador is anticipated at 950 000, slightly lower than the previous five-year average (1 000 000).  Maize production in Nicaragua is forecasted at an average level of 420 000 tons, while in Honduras it is anticipated to decline by 2.5% compared with the average of the last five-years. In Haiti, the aggregate maize production is forecast at 185 000 tons, 13% lower than the last five-year average, due to drought (FAO, Crop prospects and Food Situation December 2018 http://www.fao.org/3/CA2726EN/ca2726en.pd).

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The February assessment will be released at the end of February 2019

 

 

East Africa: Limited and irregular rainfall has caused decreased crop and rangeland productivity for the short rainy season in most of Somalia, eastern of Kenya, south-east Ethiopia and north-west Tanzania. At the end of December and close to harvest time, many of these areas have received only half of the average seasonal rainfall with clear negative repercussions on yields. In South Sudan, rainfall has been very irregular in time and space since September, reducing pastoral vegetation productivity and therefore adding pressure to one of the currently most severe food security crises in the continent. Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season.

Southern Africa: Most of the region has experienced below-average rainfall since the beginning of the season in October, leading to poor crop and rangeland conditions in: Botswana, southern Angola, northern Namibia, Lesotho, southern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia and South Africa. The unfavorable agro-climatic conditions (rainfall deficits, high temperatures) are likely to have caused planting delays, decreased planted areas and damage to initial crop growth stages. In most cases, and considering the early stage of the season, recovery is still possible in case of rainfall improvement in the next weeks and continuous monitoring is crucial. Above average rainfall has been observed since the end of November in north-eastern Zimbabwe, Malawi, north and central Mozambique and north Zambia.

North Africa: After a good start of the winter crop season in October/November, December was characterized by above average temperatures and decreased rainfall in the coastal areas of Algeria, northern Morocco and parts of Tunisia. There is no visible negative impact on vegetation yet, but rainfall improvement in January and February will be relevant for good crop development.

West and Central Africa: The main season in the Sahel was generally positive thanks to abundant rainfall. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, whereas limitations to agricultural production in 2018 were due mainly to major flooding of riverine areas in September, internal displacement and to the ongoing conflict in the North East.

Middle-East: During November-December 2018 and in contrast with the 2017-2018 season, Syria, Iraq and western Iran, received above average rainfall (sometimes causing floods as in Ninewa, Iraq), which is beneficial to winter cereals and pastures. 

In Yemen, which imports over 90% of its cereals needs, the food security situation is mainly driven by conflict, although the dry spell of this autumn in Al Hudaydah is likely to have  impacted negatively millet crop (usually harvested in December) in the center of the governorate.

Central and South Asia: In central Asia, winter cereals are dormant and conditions appear to be favorable. In south Asia, the last three months were drier than average in south Pakistan, in particular in Balochistan, where winter cereal sowings have been reduced with respect to the previous season, as revealed by Sentinel 2 imagery (e.g. west of the city of Usta Muhammad). December was also particularly dry in north & west Afghanistan with 25 to 50% of the average rainfall received, however it is too early to assess the impact of this dry spell on winter cereals or pastures. 

South-East Asia: In south-east Asia, harvest of main season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in the whole region, whereas in Indonesia the main season rice is in the growing period.  In the northern Philippines (Central Luzon and Calbarzon) rainfed maize and rice received only 50% of the usual 600 -700 mm of rainfall between the last dekad of  September and the 2nd dekad of December.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the Postrera season is ongoing in with close to average prospects for almost all the countries. After a delayed onset of the season and some early dryness, crop conditions have generally recovered in almost all of the countries thanks to beneficial rains in recent weeks. Nonetheless, some localized crop damages have been observed in subsistence farming areas, where the Primera season dryness affected Postrera planting and in the Gulf of Fonseca where heavy rains in early October led to crop damage. Planting operations of the Apante season have started in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Despite rainfall improvements in Haiti, seasonal dryness could strike secondary season production, especially in southern and northwestern areas of the country.  

 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The January assessment will be released at the end of January 2019

East Africa: Below average rainfall is putting at risk crop and rangeland productivity for the short rainy season in many areas of Somalia, Kenya and south-east Ethiopia. In late November many of these areas have received only 30-50% of the average seasonal rainfall, making plant recovery before the end of the season unlikely. Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season, but in Sudan production prospects are below average due to high input prices and early season flood damage.

Southern Africa: Most agricultural regions in the area have been experiencing below average rainfall throughout November, when they are in their early vegetative development stages. In the main cereal producing regions of South Africa and Angola and in pastoral areas in Northern Namibia, rainfall deficits coupled with above average temperatures are increasing the risk of crop and pastures damage. Very little rainfall has fallen in the last month in Zambia and Zimbabwe leading to dry crop and rangeland conditions. Average to above average rainfall in the next weeks will be crucial to ensure normal vegetation development.

West and Central Africa: Harvests across the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during the main season. In south-western Mauritania and localized areas in Senegal pastures conditions are below average, despite improvements in September and October. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, while limitations to agricultural production in 2018 are due to major flooding of riverine areas in September and to the ongoing conflict in the North East.

North Africa: According to the latest MARS bulletin “In Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia the sowing of winter wheat started in good conditions and within the normal window (early October), which for Morocco is significantly earlier than last years campaign. Crops are well established and favourable soil moisture conditions boosted emergence of winter crops which are currently 10 days advanced compared to an average season”. In Egypt after a minor delay in winter season onset, crop conditions are now close to average in all regions and crop conditions are above average in the western part of the Nile delta.

Middle-East: In the whole region (Syria, Iraq and Iran), the winter cereals season started under favourable conditions with above average rainfall from the second dekad of October. 
In Yemen, the food security crisis mainly due to conflict is compounded by the dry conditions of the last four months over the coastal areas (from Hajjah to Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Lahj and Abyan) where about one third to half of the average rainfall was received. This drought has been affecting sorghum at the end of its cycle and most likely millet at the start of its growth, as well as pastures.   

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, after the dry conditions that affected mainly Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this summer, favourable rainfall conditions prevail since October for the start of winter cereals. 
In South Asia, rainfall conditions are favourable for the start of winter cereals in Afghanistan, in particular in the western and northern regions affected by the 2018 drought. In Pakistan, sowings of Rabi crops (winter wheat and barley) are ongoing; it is however too early to assess the effect of possible irrigation water shortage on crop growth in the southern provinces.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia (with the exception of Indonesia where main season rice is starting in Java and Sumatra), the harvest of main season rice is ongoing with favourable prospects, except in the areas stricken by typhoons and floods such as southern Laos or northern Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Postrera season continues under mixed conditions due to a delayed onset of the season followed by abundant rains at the beginning of October. While conditions have improved in several areas where average and above-average rainfall was registered, seasonal dryness continues to affect parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. A similar situation is observed in Haiti where despite positive October rainfall, the overall situation has slightly deteriorated due to below average rainfall in November.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The December assessment will be released in early January 2019 

East Africa: At the harvesting stage seasonal outputs in the northern part of the region are generally positive, with the exception of localized areas affected by early season floods (e.g. North East and Central Sudan) or dryness (limited areas in East Oromia, Afar and SNNPR in Ethiopia). In the bi-seasonal areas of Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, the second season has started with close to average rainfall and some initial delay in Southern Somalia, Uganda and parts of Rwanda and Burundi. Pastoral areas in north-east Somalia and in south-east Ethiopia have experienced a harsh dry season and low deyr rainfall so far.  The Deyr season rainfall forecast according to the CHC (Climate Hazard Centre) is slightly below average, despite moderate El Niño conditions, which normally favor abundant rainfall in the region.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative stages of summer crops are ongoing across the region under close to average weather conditions. A slight water deficit is concentrated in central and south-east Angola and in the north-western parts of Zambia. Above average rainfall in the central and eastern parts of South Africa provides beneficial conditions for the planting of the main crop season, while the winter wheat crop outlook according to official estimates is positive.

West and Central Africa: Harvest prospects in the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during the season. Only in parts of Senegal and in south-western Mauritania, crop and pastures conditions are below average, despite improvements in September and October. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, however the August/September floods have cause significant damage to riverine crop areas across the country and have contributed to an exceptional Cholera outbreak. Renewed conflict in north eastern Nigeria has increased population displacement in October. In the lake Chad basin agro-climatic conditions were generally good, but insecurity remains a limitation for agricultural  production.

North Africa: in the ongoing winter crops sowing period the Maghreb has experienced a timely rainfall onset and above average rainfall amounts so far. A heatwave in Morocco in September, reported by the MARS bulletin, has no visible impact on winter season planting time or early crop conditions. A slight winter season planting delay is visible in parts of Egypt.

Middle-East: In Syria, Iraq and Iran, sowing of winter cereals started under favourable conditions with the timely onset of average to above average rainfall in the last dekad of October. It is however too early to assess the start of the cereals season as the bulk of sowings will take place in November.

In Iraq, harvest of irrigated summer crops is ongoing in the south of the country, with a strong reduction of the production in the rice belt area (Najaf and Qadissiya) as a result of the government ban on water-intensive summer crops (rice, corn): according to the New York Post, less than 3% of the 2017 rice area was sown in 2018 to save on water. 

In western Yemen (Al Hudaydah, Hajjah), sorghum and millet biomass remains below average as a result of an ongoing drought (less than on third of the average rainfall was received over the last 3 months). This drought, which comes on top of the ongoing conflict and blockade of the Al Hudaydah harbour, will worsen the ongoing severe food security crisis of the country.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, specifically in Uzbekistan (Navoiy, Kashkadarya and Bukhara) and Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), the production of summer crops (including cotton) and pastures is below average and below the 2017 production as a result of reduced irrigation and summer drought for eastern Uzbekistan (Namagan, Fergana and Andijan). 

In South Asia, southern Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) expects a below average production of summer crops as a result of reduced irrigation water (which led to a reduction in the sown area as well as crop biomass with respect to 2017 and average). In Afghanistan, conditions are favourable for the start of the winter cereals season, in particular in the north and west of the country (hit by drought in 2017/2018), thanks to timely and average to above average rainfall.

South-East Asia: conditions are favourable for the main season rice, with the harvest just starting. The entity of crop losses due to typhoons and floods in July and August in Laos, July and September in the Philippines, are however difficult to assess with the ASAP indicators.   

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season is complete in Central America and the final production was below average due to dry conditions and high temperatures since mid-June in the dry corridor, affecting mainly subsistence farmers in eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Despite a delayed onset of the segunda season rains, crop conditions have generally recovered thanks to good rainfall in the last weeks and are close to normal. Exceptional rainfall was received in early October, leading to floods in several areas of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Conditions have also improved for the summer season in Haiti due to good rains over the last weeks.  On the contrary, dry conditions persist in Cuba, affecting crops mainly in the central and eastern parts of the island.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The November assessment will be released at the end of November 2018

 

East Africa: Abundant rainfall in August and September has generally favoured good crop and livestock production in the northern part of the region. In Sudan the exceptional rainfall has caused extensive flooding and damaged croplands. Also the planted area is below average due a surge in agricultural input prices. In Ethiopia, Meher crops that will be harvested later in the year, are generally performing well, except localized areas with dry conditions in the Rift Valley area. Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall, despite a dry spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s Karamoja region and early season floods in eastern Kenya and in Southern Somalia. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict, delayed seasonal onset in the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.  

Southern Africa: Land preparation activities are occurring at this period across the region and rainfall monitoring in the next weeks will be important, as there is an increased likelihood of an El Niño event during the 2018-2019 rainy season (El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion). The winter wheat production forecast for South Africa is positive, thanks to good rainfall received in August and September.

West and Central Africa: The main rainy season in the Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral areas allowing for above average vegetation conditions. Crop and rangeland conditions have slightly improved also in western Senegal and south western Maritania, where cumulated rainfall remains significantly below average though and dry conditions prevail for the second season in a row. Abundant rainfall since June over the river basins of the Niger and Benue rivers has caused disastrous floods in Nigeria, causing casualties and damage to housing, roads and also to crop lands (see also September special alert). The conflict in north eastern Nigeria, combined with resources related clashes among pastoralists, continues to cause low food production and high risk of food insecurity.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the region are out of season after a generally good winter wheat production. Summer crops in Egypt are also showing clearly below average biomass most likely due to high temperatures experienced in the region since the beginning of this year.

Middle-East:   In the eastern half of Iran and along the Euphrates river in eastern Syria (Dayr Az Zor) and southern Iraq (Najaf and Qadissiya), the production of irrigated summer crops is below average as a result of lack of irrigation water, government ban on certain summer crops and conflict (case of Syria although some improvement is noted in Raqqa and the north west of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017). In western Yemen (Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taizz), sorghum, wheat and millet productions are jeopardized as a result of an ongoing drought compounded by conflict; for instance, Al Hudaydah, the main province for crop production, received only 24% of its average 75 mm of rain over the last month, which corresponds to the peak of the second rainy season.

Central and South Asia: the south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan (Navoyi and Kashkadarya) and the northwest of Afghanistan, the production of summer crops (including cotton) is expected to be reduced with respect to average and to 2017 as a result of irrigation deficit. In Afghanistan, the drought of this spring has caused more than 250,000 people to leave their villages in quest for food. According to a national report, in some regions of the northwest, cereal production is down by up to 70% with respect to 2017. Southern Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan) is also suffering from an ongoing drought as well as reduced irrigation of summer (kharif) crops, as shown by the reduction in irrigated crops areas.

Southeast Asia: after the heavy rains of July and August in Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, main season rice is growing under favourable conditions, except in northern Philippines where Luzon island has been again stricken by a very strong typhoon (Mangkhuk) which damaged maize and rice crops and dwellings. 

In North Korea, crop biomass is above average in most regions including the rice bowl area. The impact of the dry spell combined with high temperatures (2-3 C above average) during the pollination of cereals in the period 20 July- 20 August in south and north Hwanghae and in Pyongyang-Si needs to be assessed by field survey.  

Central America: In Central America, the primera season harvest is nearing completion and production is reduced due to the prolonged dry spells and high temperatures since mid-June in the “Dry corridor”. The main areas of concern, affected subsistence farmers in eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Thanks to recent rainfall, overall conditions slightly improved, although concern remains and postrera planting in these areas was delayed. In Haiti, recent rains somewhat alleviated the situation in the Transversal region during the summer season. However, poor conditions persist and crop sowing was delayed, particularly in the southern and western areas.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The October assessment will be released at the end of October 2018

East Africa: The June-September season is generally progressing well in the northern part of the region, with above average rainfall in most countries and main risks linked to flooding. Floods have occurred on a relatively large scale in Sudan, both in the main producing regions in the East as well as in Nothern Darfur and parts of Kordofan, while in general the abundant rainfall has mainly positive effects on crops and rangelands productivity in the country. In Somalia final crop production is expected to be above average thanks to off good performance in rainfed areas and off season production in flooded riverine areas. In Ethiopia the overall situation is also good despite some areas with below average rainfall concentrated in eastern Oromia and southern SNNPR. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall, despite a dry spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s Karamoja region. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict, delayed seasonal onset in the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.  

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in the Southern Africa region and cereal crop production was reduced in most of the countries of the region, due to the prolonged dry spells in early 2018. The winter wheat planting has been completed in South Africa and planting regions in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and conditions are good at this stage.

West Africa: The main rainy season in the Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral areas allowing for above average vegetation conditions. The main exception in the region is the area including Western Senegal, Western Mauretania and the Gambia, where seasonal rains have stopped earlier than normal. Rainfall has improved even in areas affected by early season drought such as in Guinea, the northern part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria. Security continues to be a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria. In the latter, seasonal pastoral migration from southern and central areas to the north is particularly constrained by security concerns.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the region are out of season and the 2018 harvest in June was above average, with exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5 years average production.

Middle-East:   in Syria, Iraq and Iran, biomass levels of irrigated summer crops are below average as a result of either conflict (case of Syria although some improvement is noted in Raqqa and north west, but not south east of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017) or lack of irrigation water. Actually both Iraq and the eastern half of Iran have banned certain summer crops to save water; the effect of such a ban is visible in Najaf in Iraq, where rice areas are dramatically reduced with respect to 2017. In Yemen (Al Hudaydah), cereals growth appears to be delayed with respect to average and to 2017, as a result of conflict, combined with a dry spell in May-July.  

Central and South Asia: the south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya) and the north west of Afghanistan show below average level of biomass for summer crops (including cotton) as a result of reduced irrigation (in Uzbekistan, some water reservoirs clearly show lower water levels than in 2017). In the north west of Afghanistan (particularly in Jawzjan and Faryab), summer crops show below average and below 2017 biomass as a result of reduced irrigation. 

Southeast Asia: In SE Asia, namely southern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Laos and northern Vietnam, the planting of main season rice appears to be delayed as a result of the heavy rainfall received in July and August over the region. This rainfall brought by tropical storms caused floodings in many regions (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Philippines), damage to recently planted rice and/or delay in rice planting. In DPRK although crop biomass is close or above average according to satellite imagery, a one month dry spell combined with temperatures above average by 2-3 degrees Celsius affected two important provinces of the rice bowl area (Hwanghae namdo and Pyongyang-Si) over mid July-mid August and may have damaged rice and maize crops at flowering stage. A field survey would be needed for precise damage assessment. 

Central America: Despite a good start of the 2018 main season, crop losses have been registered in parts of Central America due to dry spells since mid-June that affected vegetation. The area most affected encompasses subsistence farmers in the “Dry corridor” of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, where the Governments reported losses of 282,000 ha of maize and beans. In Haiti, prospects for the spring season are below average due to dryness caused by poor and irregular rainfall, mainly in the southern and eastern regions. At the same time, in Cuba, the situation has also deteriorated in the last month due to below average rainfall.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The September assessment will be released at the end of September 2018

East Africa: Despite flood damage due to exceptional rainfall in April/May in Kenya and Somalia, crop conditions close to harvest time for areas with an April/June growing season, are generally positive. In Somalia low crop production is expected in riverine areas hit by floods, but will be partially compensated by off-season production (to be harvested in August/September). The main season is progressing well in Ethiopia with some areas concerned by dry conditions (Afar and north Somali) and heavy rainfall in July in parts of the highlands. Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict and delayed seasonal onset in the northern part.  

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region harvest of the main agricultural season has been completed and cereal crop production is reduced in most of the countries of the region, due to the prolonged dry spells early in the season.  Crops and rangelands have been severely damaged in southwest Madagascar. The southern provinces of Mozambique, central and southern Malawi and southern Zambia have also been negatively affected, resulting in low yields in these areas. Good cereal production levels have been achieved in South Africa, northern Mozambique and northern Malawi. Winter wheat has been planted in the Cape area of South Africa with favorable weather conditions so far, especially in the western part of Western Cape.

West Africa: June/July rainfall has been beneficial for promising crop and pastures development in most countries of the region. Rainfall has improved even in areas affected by early season drought such as in Guinea, northern part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria. Security continues to be a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria. In the latter, seasonal pastoral migration from southern and central areas to the north is particularly constrained by security concerns.

North Africa: Harvest is complete in the region and most areas have experienced above average production, with exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5 years average production.

Middle-East:   In Syria and Iraq, winter cereals have been harvested and a production drop is anticipated for north east Syria (in particular Hassakeh) and north west Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk) as a result of the winter-spring drought and conflict; in Syria, irrigated summer crops are now growing along the Euphrate river and although the number of irrigated fields is below pre-conflict levels, the situation has improved with respect to 2017, especially in Raqqa and the northern third of Dayr Az Zor. In Iran, the overall situation is positive thanks to good cereal production prospects in the western and northern parts of the country and despite an expected production drop in the centre - south (Esfahan, Fars) as a result of a spring dry spell and probable lack of irrigation water.

Central and South Asia: as a result of the dry conditions of this winter-spring, and despite irrigation water, pastures and crops production are well below average in the south east of Turkmenistan, most of Uzbekistan (especially the south east part in Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Bukhara), as well as in a west to north strip of Afghanistan (Hirat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh), where winter cereal production is expected to drop with respect to both average and 2017 levels. In Afghanistan, the area dedicated to irrigated summer crops is reduced with respect to 2017 most likely due to lack of irrigation water.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in continental southeast Asia as well as in northern Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In Indonesia, planting of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under good conditions. In DPRK conditions are also favorable for both rice and maize.

Central America: After a timely onset of the 2018 Primera season and favorable development of crops in the early stages, crop conditions are worsening in the dry corridor. This is the case mainly in Honduras and El Salvador following rainfall deficits in the last month. In Haiti, conditions have continued to deteriorate due to dryness since late May, mainly in the central and southern part of the country and production is expected to be below average. In Cuba, main season maize and beans conditions are favorable with only some concerns in the west, again due to dry conditions.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The August assessment will be released at the end of August 2018

East Africa: above average rainfall has continued to fall in June in large areas of Kenya and southern Ethiopia, which had been affected by exceptional floods and storms in April and May. In parts of these countries, as well as in Somalia and Uganda, the largely above average rainfall will benefit main season crops. However, there is also increased risk of crop diseases and pests, including locusts and Fall armyworm. Both human and livestock epidemics are also on the raise where floodwaters are receding. In Ethiopia progress of the Meher season is generally good, although vegetation conditions are below average in parts of the north/east due to late onset of rainfall, dry conditions and a delayed Belg season. In the north/eastern part of the region, including Sudan and the northern part of South Sudan, the onset of the rainy season is slightly delayed and monitoring over the next dekads will be important to understand possible impacts on agricultural  production.

In South Sudan, despite the recent ceasefire between the main conflict parties, the humanitarian situation is on the brink of famine and cholera outbreaks in several parts of the country have been reported.

Southern Africa: Harvest is underway in most parts of Southern Africa and preliminary reports indicate a decrease in cereal production outputs due to the early season dry spell that had an adverse effect on crops during crucial development stages. Most affected are the southern provinces of Mozambique, central and southern Malawi and southern Zambia. Below average rangeland conditions and early pastures depletion are visible in southern Namibia and south west Madagascar. Improved rainfall in the second part of the season is boosting production prospects in South Africa, northern and central Mozambique, Angola and northern Malawi. Late planted crops will also benefit production outputs in Zimbabwe. Carryover stocks from 2017 harvest will support food availability in most countries.

West Africa: June marks the onset of the main season across the Sahel and early rainfall has been positive in most areas. In the Sudanean belt and in parts of the Gulf of Guinea however, there has been early season drought affecting agricultural vegetation in Guinea, northern part of Sierra Leone and in Benin and central Nigeria. A slight delay in rainfall onset can be observed also in southern Senegal. Parts of Mali and Burkina are still affected by low pastoral biomass productivity conditions following the 2017 drought and leading to pastures deficit and high commodity prices. Security is a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria.

North Africa: At harvest time, the exceptionally good yields expected in Morocco are confirmed (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Yield expectations for Algeria are also clearly above average, while drought conditions in central Tunisia bring national level yield expectations slightly below the 5 years average.

Middle-East:  Cereal harvest is completed in Syria and Iraq and a strong decrease in cereal production is expected in northern Syria (especially Hassakeh, but also Dayr Az Zor and to a lesser extent Raqqa and Aleppo) and northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk)  as a result of reduced or failed sowings. In the centre - south of Iran (Esfahan, Fars) production is also expected to be below average due to probable lack of irrigation water and above average temperatures in February-March, while conditions and prospects are good for western and north western Iran.

Central Asia: As a result of the dry conditions of this winter-spring, pastures availability is well below average in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan (Samarkand and Kashkadarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis, Faryab,  Jawzjan, Balkh,  Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production  is also expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan, the southern part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya and Samarkand) and south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal) as a result of drought and reduced or failed sowings.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia as well as in northern Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In Indonesia, planting of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under good conditions. In DPRK conditions are also favourable (with plentiful water) for rice and maize.

Central America: The planting of the primera season is nearing completion in Central America and conditions are generally favorable throughout with good rains received. Conditions in Haiti have worsened since last month due to dryness from the end of May to mid-June mainly in the central and southern part of the country, although the effects on vegetation are still reduced.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The July assessment will be released at the end of July 2018

East Africa: Most agricultural areas in the Horn have continued to receive average or above average rainfall in May, following the exceptional amounts of April. In the main river basins however, flooding has caused loss of lives and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, as well as damage to infrastructure and crops. Strong tropical storms have been recorded in the region in May and Cyclone Sagar hit the coast of Somalia and Djibouti at the end of the month.
More information on flood impact on agriculture is available in the Special Alerts section.

Despite the impact of floods in the southern part of Ethiopia, Belg crops have generally developed well and the Meher season is expected to start in May/June. In Tanzania crop conditions for the main crop areas in the South are favorable, while flood damage has been reported mainly in the north of the country. In Somalia, for non flooded areas the abundant early season rainfall is beneficial for the early stages of Gu crops and for rangelands recovery. However the country comes out of 3 consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and continued regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors for successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced. In Rwanda flooding is reported to have caused major damage to the ongoing crop season with negative impacts mainly on rice and sugarcane.

Southern Africa: Around harvesting time in most of Southern Africa crop prospects have improved as compared to earlier assessments due to above average rainfall in the last 4 months. For example in northern Zambia, northern Malawi, South Africa, main agricultural areas of Angola, Northern Mozambique and north east Namibia, expected crop production is close to average or slightly above. On the contrary, in southern Mozambique, parts of Zimbabwe, central and southern Malawi, southern Zambia and Lesotho, crop production is below average due to the impact of early season dry spells. In other areas, including mainly western and southern Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region. In terms of food availability most countries, including those with below average production expectations in 2018, are still benefitting from large stocks of the 2017 bumper harvest.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas and led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and led to extended livestock fodder deficits. This is the case also for areas only partially affected by the 2017 drought such as Niger, now in the lean season. Improvements in the security situation will be essential for successful field preparation and planting operations in the North East of Nigeria. Below average early season rainfall is causing a delay in the start of the season in parts of the Gulf of Guinea in parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and to some extent also in Togo, Benin and central parts of Nigeria.

North Africa: Abundant and well distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter cereals in the Maghreb and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017. The positive agro-meteo conditions have continued through May and led to upwards corrections in MARS yield forecasts. Morocco expects a bumper harvest with wheat yields ca. 20% above average. Latest forecasts for Algeria are also above average. Central Tunisia remains the main area with below average yield expectations due to irregular rainfall.

Middle-East:  In northern Syria (two thirds of Hassakeh, and also part of Aleppo, Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk) cereal production is expected to decrease strongly as a result of reduced or failed sowings. In contrast, cereal production prospects are good for western and north western Iran while lack of irrigation water combined with temperatures 6 to 7C above average have affected the southern arid and less productive areas of the country (Fars, Esfahan, Marzaki).

Central Asia: as a result of the dry conditions of the winter/springperiod, pastures production is well below average in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan (Samarkand and Kashkadarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis, Faryab,  Jawzjan, Balkh,  Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production  is also expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan and also in the southern part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya) as a result of reduced or failed sowings.

Southeast Asia: planting of wet season rice has started with favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia while in Indonesia, after the harvest of main season rice, planting of dry season rice and maize is taking place under good conditions (Sumatra and the east of Java).

Central America: The primera season has recently started in most countries of Central America. Conditions are generally favorable at this early stage of the season. However, there is some dryness observed in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. In the Caribbean, spring season is ongoing in Haiti and crops are in vegetative to reproductive stages. Conditions are favorable despite concerns in localized areas in the west and south. In Cuba, main season rice planting is underway and conditions are predominantly favorable. Rainfall in May in coastal Peru and Ecuador have mitigated drought concerns despite remaining pockets of crop failure.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The June assessment will be released at the end of June 2018

Southern Africa: Agrometeorological conditions in most parts of Southern Africa have improved from February to April as compared to the widespread early season dry spells and high temperatures in January. For crops in most of South Africa, northern and central Zambia and in many pastoral areas (including for example in Botswana), this has led to recovery of crop and rangeland conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early season dry spells, crop recovery is more limited in Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern Mozambique, Lesotho and in south east Botswana, where production forecasts are below average. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as a challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa: The Horn of Africa has received abundant early season rainfall, with peaks of up to 200% in parts of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda where there is an increased risk of flooding.  In Ethiopia Belg crops have developed well with some exceptions in the north east of the country. In Tanzania crop conditions for the main crop areas in the South are favorable and rainfall has improved also in parts of the center affected by early season dryness. In Somalia the good early season rainfall is beneficial for Gu planting and for rangelands recovery, but the country comes out of 3 consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and continued regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors for successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced.

North Africa: From February to April abundant and well distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter crops and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017 which had delayed planting. Below average crop performance is visible only parts of eastern Algeria and in central Tunisia. According to the latest MARS bulletin (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc-mars-bulletin-vol26-no04.pdf), yield forecasts are slightly above average for the Maghreb countries except for Algeria (slightly below).

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities. The main crop season in the Sahelian belt will start in June.

Middle-East:  In northern Syria (in particular in the eastern two thirds of Hassakeh, and also part of Aleppo and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (north-west of Mossoul and west of Dahuk) high resolution imagery shows that cereals were not sown or have failed on many fields, in contrast with the 2017 campaign. A strong reduction of cereal production is therefore anticipated in these regions. In contrast, northern Iran benefited from good rains and above average temperatures while dry conditions still affect the southern less productive areas of the country (e.g. Fars, Esfahan).

Central Asia: As a result of the dry conditions that persist since this winter, pastures productivity is clearly reduced in a large region that includes the southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou) and Uzbekistan (Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (especially Jawzjan, Faryab and Badghis, and to a lesser extent Sar-e-Pul, Balkh and Hirat), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals in this region are also expected to have a production drop.

Southeast Asia: Conditions are favorable for the starting harvest of dry season rice in continental southeast Asia and for the main season rice harvest in Indonesia.

Central America and the Caribbean: In Central America, land preparation is underway for the start of the Primera season in mid-May. In Cuba, sowing for main season rice is underway under normal conditions despite some concern in localized areas due to dry conditions, whereas in Haiti maize and bean planting of the spring season is ongoing with some below average precipitation in April. In the coastal areas of Ecuador and to some extent in Peru, cereals production is affected by drought.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The May assessment will be released at the end of May 2018

 

Southern Africa: Rainfall in most parts of Southern Africa has improved in February and March following widespread early season dry spells and high temperatures in January. For crops in South Africa, parts of Zambia and Madagascar and in many pastoral areas (including for example Botswana), this has led to partial recovery of crop and rangeland conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early season dry spells, crop recovery is more difficult in Zimbabwe, Southern Zambia, Lesotho and in south east Botswana. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued throughout February and March causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa: parts of the region including Belg areas in Ethiopia and bi-modal crop areas in Uganda are benefitting from an early start of the rainy season. In Kenya, March rainfall has been particularly intensive leading to an increased risk of flooding. In Tanzania the main crop areas in the South are doing well and rainfall has improved also in parts of the center affected by early season dryness. In Somalia the main season is expected to start in April and due to 4 consecutive drought seasons and prolonged conflict, food security in the country is mainly guaranteed by humanitarian support.

North Africa: In February and March there has been abundant rainfall in most of Morocco, allowing good growth of late planted winter crops. On the contrary in Algeria the early season water deficit in the eastern and central parts have continued and are making below average yields in these areas likely. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, with a good levels of recovery in the north and south but below average in the center.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities.

Middle-East: After the good rains of January and February, over the last month a dry spell has affected the center west of Syria from Idleb to Dara. In contrast, the main cereal production area of northern Syria (Hassakeh and Aleppo) as well as the northern regions of Iraq (Dahuk, Ninewa and Kirkuk) continue to show vegetation biomass levels below pre-conflict levels, despite the good rainfall received since January. In the southern part of Iraq, after the dry winter conditions, cereals have received favourable rainfalls in February. In Iran dry conditions are still affecting the centre-south of the country, with below average biomass levels for winter cereals in Fars.    

Central Asia: The dry conditions that prevailed since October over a region including the southeast of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, northwest and north of Afghanistan and south of Tajikistan, have resulted in below average biomass levels for pastures in the whole region. They also limit winter cereals growth mainly in the north west of Afghanistan (Balkh, Jawzjan, Faryab, Badghis, Hirat) and southeast of Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya). This extended drought starts to cause concern for the availability of water for the irrigation of summer crops.

Southeast Asia: Over continental south-east Asia, dry season rice is growing under favorable conditions. In Indonesia, beneficial rainfall for the ongoing main season rice was received over the last month on the southern part of Sumatra and the western part of Java. 

Central America and the Caribbean: In Central America, most regions are out of season. The Apanate season is almost complete in Guatemala and Nicaragua and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received. The 2018 spring season is starting in Haiti under favorable conditions for planting maize and beans crops.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The April assessment will be released at the end of April 2018

East Africa: Second season production was affected by drought in Somalia and parts of Kenya and Tanzania. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and crop production is reported by FSNAU to be below 80% of long term average in the South and only 30% in North West. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and aggravates a food security situation bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with large parts of the population depending on external assistance. Land preparation has started for the 2018 Belg season in Ethiopia and for the main rainy season in Kenya, Uganda and central Tanzania. Pastoral areas in north eastern Kenya and in Somalia are experiencing early biomass depletion and high temperatures.

West Africa: Most of the region is out of season now with the exception of rice crops. Dry conditions affecting pastoral areas in 2017 have seriously reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas leading to early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increasing demand of animal fodder. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa rainfall has improved in February following widespread early season dry spells and heat stress. For parts of Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe and Zambia this might help crops to recover. While for other areas for example in Namibia, central/southern Zimbabwe, Botswana and Madagascar crop damage is more advanced and reduces yield expectations. Fall armyworm has been reported in most countries in the region. In South Africa the eastern part of the country has benefited from abundant rainfall in the first part of the season and yellow maize conditions are normal, while white maize grown in the central parts (Free State and North West) are still suffering water stress lowering yield expectations.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria continue to be affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017. In January and February rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco and central and western coast of Algeria. The exact impact of the delayed planting and early season water stress will only be fully visible when crops will be around the middle of the cycle. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, below average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in the western part including south west.

Middle-East: After the dry spell that affected the region over October-December, good rains were received in January and February in Syria, Iraq and northern Iran. In northern Syria and  northern Iraq, the biomass of winter crops is still below pre-conflict levels, partly as a result of the conflict, and despite temperatures 2 to 3C warmer than average for Syria and Iraq.

In contrast, southern Iraq since December, and now the centre and south of Iran are affected by drought, with a limited impact on crops for the time being, thanks to irrigation. 

Central Asia: the dry conditions observed since last October continue to affect pastures in a region including the southeast of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the south of Tajikistan and a large part of Afghanistan. It is still too early to assess the impact of this drought on rainfed winter cereals. 

Southeast Asia: favorable conditions for early vegetative growth of dry season rice in most countries and for main season rice in Indonesia.

Central America and the Caribbean: Harvest of the second season (postrera) is ongoing and prospects are positive due to good rains received throughout the season. Similarly, the short Apante season (January –March) is underway under favorable conditions in Guatemala and Nicaragua due to positive rains.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The March assessment will be released at the end of March 2018

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting the second crop season production (harvested in December/January) in Somalia, Kenya and parts of Tanzania. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and crop production is reported by FSNAU to be below 80% of long term average in the South and only 30% in North West. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and aggravates a food security situation bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with large parts of the population depending on external assistance. In Kenya, the eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected, and livestock prices in those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive area in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) has also experienced unfavorable crop conditions. In Ethiopia the main season was generally characterized by positive agro-climatic conditions, while yield reductions in various areas of the country depend mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north east and in part of the mono-modal center, rainfall was below average with peaks of up to 70% deficit. Low domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of the 2017 main season will lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

 

West Africa: The main season ended in December in the mono-seasonal part of the area and was generally favorable with the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to migrate to neighboring countries.  Also localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season has improved in its late stages following an initial water deficit. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact agricultural activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa the dry conditions that started in late November continued throughout December and in January, leading to reduced yield expectations in several countries. At around the middle of the summer crop season, crop conditions are affected by drought stress in parts of Zimbabwe (mainly West Mashonaland, Northern Matabeleland and Masvingo), central/north of South Africa (mainly Free State and North West), in north east and south east Botswana, in the coastal part of Angola, North of Namibia and Southern Madagascar. Erratic rainfall in January has caused dry spells also in the northern part of the region, which had experienced abundant rainfall in the initial part of the season (eg. in Malawi and Southern Zambia). Fall armyworm is also reported to be a problem for the 2017-2018 season in most of the area.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria are affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017. In January rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco and central and western coast of Algeria. Late planting could still lead to average yields in parts of Morocco, assuming good rainfall in the next month. Conditions have improved also in parts of coastal and western Algeria, while in the eastern part 2018 yields expectations remain low. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, below average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in the western part including south west.

Middle East: The whole region (including southern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has received about 40-60% of the normal October-December rainfall. Winter cereals are still at an early stage, so the impact of the autumn dry spell, which is likely to compound the consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq, cannot yet be assessed.

As for Yemen, December-February is generally out of season for farming activities, but all productive activities in the country still suffers the consequences of the ongoing conflict.

 

 

Central Asia: Drier than average conditions over October-December affected pastures of the region going from eastern Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya), southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern border of Afghanistan.  No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

 

Southeast Asia: In continental southeast Asia, December corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet season rice and the start of planting of winter-spring rice. No particular event is to be reported (apart from tropical storms with limited impact on rice cultivation over Philippines). 

 

Central America and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received across Central America that benefited maize and beans crops. 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The February assessment will be released at the end of February 2018 

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting mainly Somalia and Kenya. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and the only close to average rainfall was concentrated in November. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected, and livestock prices in those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive area in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) has also experienced unfavorable crop conditions.

In Ethiopia the main season was generally characterized by positive agro-climatic conditions, while yield reductions in various areas of the country depend mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north east and in part of the mono-modal center, rainfall is below average with peaks of up to 70% deficit. Low domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of the 2017 main season will lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

West Africa: The main season ended in December in the uni-seasonal part of the region and was generally favorable with the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to migrate to neighbouring countries.  Also localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season shows a slightly below average performance in several countries including parts of Benin and southern Nigeria. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities and part of the north east (Adamawa and Gombe in particular) is experiencing low pastoral biomass production due early rainfall cessation.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most agricultural regions are in vegetative stage and planting took place under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November however, rainfall decreased in parts of South Africa, Swaziland and in the coastal and central part of Angola. Good December rainfall reestablished a generally positive summer crop outlook in South Africa, with only a central north/south belt still affected by rainfall deficits. In Angola the situation has improved for the main cereal growing areas as compared to November, but rainfall deficits remain in the central coastal areas. Rainfall has decreased in December in the South of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, but initial seasonal rainfall was above average in those areas.  

North Africa: Most of Morocco and Algeria are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since October 2017. Conditions have improved in parts of Coastal Algeria in November/December, but for the other areas this deficit (mostly between 30 and 50% of the 90 days rainfall) is leading to low 2018 yields expectations. In parts of Morocco, vegetation conditions at this stage of the season are below those of 2016, the last drought year.

Middle East:The whole region (including southern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has received about 40-60% of the normal October-December rainfall. Winter cereals are still at an early stage, so the impact of the autumn dry spell, which is likely to compound the consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq, cannot yet be assessed.

 As for Yemen, December-February corresponds to a break period for farming activities, but the country still suffers from the consequences of the ongoing conflict.

Central Asia: Drier than average conditions over October-December affected pastures of the region going from eastern Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya), southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern border of Afghanistan.  No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

Southeast Asia: In continental southeast Asia, December corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet season rice and the start of planting of winter-spring rice. No particular event is to be reported (apart from tropical storms with limited impact on rice cultivation over Philippines). 

Central America and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received across Central America that benefited maize and beans crops. 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The January assessment will be released at the end of January 2018 

East Africa: At the end of the Deyr rainy season most crop and rangeland areas in southern and central Somalia have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall. For Somalia this is the fourth season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the north and south eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also concerned. The main productive areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) are also suffering drought conditions. The current drought in the Horn is linked to a weak la Niña event which could also negatively impact on the 2018 rainy season. 
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation. Rainfall has improved in the Eastern part of the pastoral areas in Ethiopias Somali region. In Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially irregular rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in Kassala state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

West Africa: The drought hitting Mauretania and the northern part of Senegal since July 2017 has continued until the end of the main season and has lead to insufficient production of pastoral biomass. According to reports by various sources, seasonal pastoral migration in these regions has begun much earlier than usual and herders are moving to neighboring regions in Mali, which also suffered rainfall deficit. The main crop season in the Sahel is entering the harvesting period and yield expectations are generally close to average or above, while localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season.  In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season started late and performance is slightly below average. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities and part of the north East (Adamawa and Gombe in particular) is experiencing low pastoral biomass production due to rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most agricultural regions are in an early vegetative stage and planting took place under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November rainfall has decreased however in South Africa’s main cereal producing regions, Lesotho and Swaziland, in the coastal and central part of Angola, in Northern Mozambique and in the Southern half of Madagascar. In most of these areas there is ample room for recovery, but rainfall needs to be monitored carefully over the next weeks.  

North Africa: Most of Morocco and the eastern Algeria are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since October. There is still time for winter crop planting which can extend to December, but rainfall in late November and in December will be crucial. Conditions have improved in parts of Eastern Algeria.

Central and south Asia: a dry spell affected the region going from south Kazakhstan to eastern Uzbekistan over the last month / trimester at the start of winter cereals growth. However it is too early to assess any impact on wheat and barley growth. 

South East Asia: harvest of the main season rice is ending in most countries of the continent as well as north Philippines and fields are prepared for winter/spring rice planting. In Indonesia, the planting of main season rice in Java and south Sumatra and the sowings of maize are ongoing.

Middle East: Most of Iran (centre north and northwest) and the western half of Syria (especially Aleppo and Idleb) have been affected by an autumn dry spell with about half of the average rainfall received over the last one to three months. Impact on winter cereals sowings and emergence is however difficult to assess at this stage. In north eastern Iraq (Sulaymaniyah), as in 2016, the growth of winter cereals is delayed with respect to the long term average, maybe as a result of a shift towards spring cereals or because of the drier conditions than average.

 In Yemen, the sorghum season is ending in the main production area (Al Hudaydah) which received 50% of its average rainfall over the last three months. Although there is apparently no biomass reduction with respect to the average, the consequences of the conflict and cholera outbreak are causes of major concern.

Central America and the Caribbean: The postrera season is underway across Central America with favorable conditions due to good rains received. However, some floods have been reported from mid-September to end-October affecting postrera planting and primera harvest in areas of the Central region. The most affected areas have been located in valleys, coastal plains, riversides. For example, damages to agriculture have been reported in Rivas, Ometepe, Madriz, Boaco and Estelí, Jinotega (Nicaragua) and in Cobán, Sayaxché, Chisec and Ixcán (Guatemala).

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The December assessment is scheduled for the second week of January 2018 with a slight delay due to Christmas and End of the Year Festivities.

East Africa: Drought is again affecting the Horn of Africa with a significant delay and low amounts of the seasonal Deyr rainfall in Somalia and in the Somali region of Ethiopia. For Somalia this is the fourth season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine. Repetitive drought and prolonged conflict is seriously eroding livelihoods and food security resilience. There is still room for late season recovery, but seasonal weather forecasts from various sources are pointing towards below average seasonal totals. In Kenya the north eastern pastoral areas and the coastal marginal crop areas are also concerned. The main productive areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) are also affected by drought.
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially irregular rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in Kassala state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative crop conditions are generally taking place in favourable conditions across the region, with an area of slight water deficit concentrated in parts of central and northern Angola. In South Africa the main season has started well in the central and eastern parts of the country. Winter wheat production in Western Cape (harvesting time) is expected to be slightly below average due to early season drought leading to low yields (production is expected to be close to average thanks to a substantial increase in area planted in the Cape area as compared to 2016).  

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is generally developing well, apart from the impact of flood events that hit several countries in the area between August and October, including Niger, Sierra Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting mainly pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears performing well. In the Gulf of Guinea a delay in planting and below average crop performance is affecting the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities.

North Africa: North eastern Algeria is affected by early season water deficit which follows on dry conditions in the last part of the previous season. In parts of central and northern Egypt a small delay of the winter season has been detected.

Middle East: In western Syria, the onset of autumn rains is slightly delayed but still in time for cereals sowing. In Iraq, barley is expected to be sown soon in the northern and eastern regions. In both countries, the production of irrigated summer crops along the Euphrate river (Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor in Syria, Anbar in Iraq) has dropped with respect to pre-conflict levels as a result of damage to irrigation equipment, lack of fuel, fertilizer, seeds and manpower. In Yemen, drier than average conditions have been observed over end July – start October for the southern regions of Lahj and Abyan as well as the more productive region of Al Hudaydah. Little impact is visible until now, but there is a high risk of decreased agricultural activities due to conflict and Cholera outbreak. 

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are generally favourable for wheat harvest in Kazakhstan and for summer crops (including cotton) in the southern countries of the region. 

South and Southeast Asia: In south Asia, overall weather conditions appear to be favourable for rice maturation. In most of the continental part of south-east Asia, the main season rice is at mid cycle with favourable rainfall. In the other regions (Indonesia, Phiipinnes), overall conditions are also good.

Central America and the Caribbean: Overall conditions are mostly favorable with good rains and temperature across Central America.  In the Caribbean region, there are some areas affected by dry conditions and Hurricane Irma has caused localized crop damage.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The November assessment is scheduled for December 1st

East Africa: The main season is generally progressing well in Ethiopia from an agro-climatic point of view, while concerns remain due to armyworm damage. In Sudan irregular rainfall is lowering production expectations in both marginal and high potential areas. For most other parts in the region the long rainy season has been below average, including Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania due to a combination of poor rainfall and Fall Armyworm infestation. In south/central Somalia the Gu production was 37% below average according to FSNAU and long cycle sorghum in the north west also performed poorly. Main productive areas in Eritrea are also affected by drought. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: The main season is about to start and monitoring rainfall in the next weeks will be important. The region experienced a generally very good 2016/2017 production, while winter wheat in South Africa had a low outcome due to early season drought leading to low area planted and low performance.

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is generally developing well, with the exception of many areas hit by floods in Sierra Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting mainly pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears still performing well. In the Gulf of Guinea a slight delay in planting is affecting the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities.

Central Africa: Agro-climatic conditions have been generally favorable during the 2017 main season and threats to agricultural production are due mainly to humanitarian conflicts and insecurity.

Middle East: despite drier than average conditions over the last three months (which correspond to the dry season) in the centre north and the north-east of Iran (Ghazvin, Tehran and Ardebil) as well as in south Yemen (from Abyan to Taizz), summer crops appear to be in good conditions thanks to irrigation. In Syria, as in 2016, there is a clear reduction of production for irrigated summer crops with respect to pre-conflict levels in Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor.

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are generally favourable over the whole region thanks to irrigation and despite some dry spell in southern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the central part of Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh and Sirdarya).

South and Southeast Asia: In south and south-east Asia, crop conditions generally appear to be favourable, despite minor dry spells in eastern Afghanistan (Nangarhar) and north-east Pakistan. From August to early September heavy monsoon floods destroyed large crop areas in Bangladesh and caused reduced rice yield expectations in Nepal.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: In the rice bowl area, crops appear to have recovered from their delayed planting caused by the June dry spell and their biomass is now slightly above average. Harvest time is approaching for maize and rice and final yields will depend among other factors on the level of maturity that crops can reach in the areas that were planted late.

Central America and the Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable due to good rains in the dry corridor, where harvest is underway for the main primera season. Caribbean crop conditions were generally favorable before 7-10 September when Hurricane Irma struck north Haiti and Cuba causing crop losses and agricultural damage. In the regions affected by the hurricane crop production prospects are still uncertain.

East Africa: In the unimodal areas located mainly in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia the season is generally progressing well, although for North Darfur and for the main productive areas in East Sudan, initial dry conditions have been followed by intensive rainfall with increased risk of flooding. The first season in the bimodal areas has ended in July/August and has been underperforming in Somalia, Kenya, and parts of Uganda, adding pressure to the difficult food security situation especially in the first two. In Kenya late planted crops in the Rift Valley and central regions have benefitted from July/August rainfall, but overall production expectations remain below average. The pastoral drylands in the North are now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of pastoral vegetation availability. In Somalia the long cycle crops in the North West are also performing badly and the national Gu production is reported to be 38% below average. Ethiopia is experiencing a food security crisis in the South East due to prolonged drought. The main agricultural areas in the center of the country are generally performing well so far, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern Oromia regions and are also visible in Afar and Eastern Amhara. The presence of fall armyworm (FAW) in the region also continues to be a risk factor for Meher crops. In Uganda late rainfall has improved crop conditions in the Northern part, while conditions of long cycle sorghum in Karamoja are still critically dependent on additional rainfall. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, crop conditions are below average in several states and agricultural activities are reduced due to the ongoing conflict.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereal crops (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape have experienced drought in the initial stages of the season (and reduced planting) and despite normal rainfall in July/August, current production prospects report a 20% reduction of winter wheat and barley in the Western Cape. West Africa: Crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while a prolonged dry spell has affected the border area between Senegal and Mauritania. In July and August a slight rainfall deficit can be observed in the Vakaga region in CAR, in North Eastern Nigeria and in parts of Chad. Strong rainfall and flooding has been reported in early September in the South of Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone.

Middle East: Harvest of wheat and barley is over in the region and only summer crops are still growing depending on irrigation. In Yemen, some rainfall deficit occurred in August on the western part of the country (Al Hudaydah). Combined with conflict, this deficit may result in reduced sorghum and wheat harvests.

Central Asia: Crop conditions are generally favourable over the whole region. Rainfall deficit has been observed for the June - August period in the southern countries (Uzbekistan, southern Tajikistan and eastern Afghanistan) and two southern provinces of Kazakhstan, but thanks to irrigation, no impact on crop biomass is visible.

South and Southeast Asia: In south Asia, heavy monsoon have hit Nepal and Bangladesh in August, causing major floods and damaging about 80,000 ha of crops in Nepal according to the UN. Besides this damage, crop conditions are generally good. In Pakistan, conditions of irrigated crops appear favourable despite a small rain deficit over Punjab, as well as Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. In Southeast continental Asia and Philippines, the main season rice is in good conditions. This is also the case for the off season rice in Indonesia.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: In August, the rice bowl area and in particular the area south to Pyongyang received above average rainfall and crop biomass appears to have recovered in most of the rice bowl provinces; however, the final rice and maize production is expected to be below average as a result of the delayed planting. The situation needs to be monitored.

Central America and Caribbean: the region is experiencing an exceptionally good crop season due to above average rainfall. Rainfall deficits in Cuba have not caused major damage to crops yet. In Haiti crop conditions are generally good but there are some concerns due to low rainfall in the southern part.

Agricultural production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as compared to previous months with basically no hotspots in Central America and Central and South East Asia. The main season ended well in Southern and Northern Africa and is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa remains the region with the main concerns due to a prolonged drought affecting several countries in the region. There are concerns about drought in the Democratic Republic of North Korea.

East Africa: The long rains season was characterized by rainfall deficits in May-June across Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and Northern Uganda. According to reports, vast areas in Western Kenya, Ethiopia and in Uganda have been invaded by fall armyworm and treatments were often not successful.  In Kenya the Western main maize production areas have recovered to close to average production despite low rainfall, but the central and rift valley areas have reduced yield expectations. Coastal areas experienced high rainfall concentrated in few events and the beginning of the season, followed by irregular rains. The pastoral drylands in the North are now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of pastoral vegetation availability. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvest in July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now harvested, suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and Southwestern areas are affected by drought as well as pastoral areas in Karamoja and part of Northern Uganda. In Ethiopia the Belg season (harvested now) was characterized by irregular rainfall with negative effects concentrated in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the center of the country are performing well so far and in the Northern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop conditions, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern Oromia regions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in other agricultural regions, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereals crops (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape (and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are affected by drought and despite some recent improvements a below average production can be expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: Early crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces). Most of the region has benefitted from strong rains in July and latest concerns are rather about too much rainfall.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield reductions close to 20%.

Middle East: After a delayed start of season, wheat and barley seem to have recovered and yields look close to average, except in Syria due to conflict, where according to FAO/WFP wheat production is half the pre-conflict average production. Also irrigated summer crops areas (e.g. in Dayr Az Zor) appear to be reduced with respect to the (pre-conflict) average. 

Central Asia: In the northern part of central Asia (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), conditions are favourable while the southern countries (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and parts of Afghanistan) experience a strong rainfall deficit, with however no visible impact as most crops are irrigated.

South and Southeast Asia:  Average to favourable conditions in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. In southeast Asia (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines), planting of the main season rice is ongoing with favourable rainfall conditions. Good conditions also for Indonesia.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: After average rainfall conditions in March and April, the southern part of the rice bowl area (N. And S. Hwanghae) started experiencing rainfall deficit in May. This deficit affected the whole rice bowl area in June, being particularly severe on the northern provinces of the area (N. & S. Pyongan and Pyongyang). Good rain fell on the first dekad of July, but the May June dry spell must have affected the early crops yields (potatoes, winter wheat and barley) of this region which accounts for 70% of all crops production (and 75% of the rice production), This dry spell has delayed rice planting and maize sowings, which normally take place in May-June, by about one month. The impact of these late sowings will have to be monitored during the season.  

Central America and Caribbean: Despite the late start of the primera season, most countries in Central America and the Caribbean have recovered quite well due to positive rainfall with favorable maize and bean prospects for the season. Ecuador is facing an early end of the season with several below average rainfall conditions, which in turn has produced deterioration of croplands in coastal regions.

At the global level agricultural production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as compared to the previous months, with no hotspots in Central America and Central and South-East Asia. The main season generally ended well in Southern and Northern Africa and is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa remains the region with the main concerns due to the partial failure of the long rains.

East Africa: The long rains season was characterized by deficits in May-June across Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Uganda. In addition large areas in Western Kenya and in Uganda have been invaded by Armyworm and treatments where often not successful.  In Kenya both the Western main maize production areas and the Rift Valley areas received below average rainfall while marginal coastal areas experienced high rainfall concentrated in few events. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvested in July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now being harvested, suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country continue to experience a rainfall deficit despite some improvement in May. In Karamoja and part of Northern Uganda, pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia the Belg season (bein harvested now) was characterized by irregular rainfall. The most affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the Center of the country are performing well so far and in the Nothern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop conditions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in Northern Bhar el Ghazal, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

The region is generally performing well with no production hotspots identified in June, apart from an expected below average production in Syria linked to the ongoing conflict. In the Middle-East, harvest of wheat and barley is on going. After a delayed start of season in Iraq and Iran, crops have recovered in May-June. Favourable conditions are observed in Kazakhstan and in the other Central Asian republics (TJK, KGZ, TKM, UZB). Drier than average conditions over the centre-eastern part of Afghanistan and north western part of Pakistan (with roughly 30-50% of the normal rainfall received over the last three months) do not seem to have impacted crops thanks to irrigation.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape (and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are badly affected by drought and significantly below average production is expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: Early crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces).

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield reductions close to 20%.

Southeast Asia: South-east Asia: the main season rice is starting with favourable rainfall conditions overall.

Central America and Caribbean: Conditions in Central America are generally favorable for the primera season crops, mainly maize and beans, as a result of beneficial rains received since mid-May. There have been some dry spells only in north Honduras and Guatemala. The Caribbean area faced some dryness at the end of May and beginning of June but without a clear impact on crop production yet.

At the end of May 2017 the main crop season affected by poor long rains in Eastern Africa remains of concern, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also continue to experience problems to their main crop season (eg. Iran and Iraq) or decreased cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East Africa: The long rains season remains characterized by rainfall deficits in May in Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and northern Uganda. In Kenya rainfall has been below average in most of the country, and in the high production areas in Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported. Torrential rainfall in the coastal provinces in May has had little benefit to crops and exposed riverine areas to flooding. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts are 30-60% below average and a decreased Gu production will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center still suffer from late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country continue to experience a rainfall deficit despite some improvement in May. The North Eastern pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg season rainfall was characterized by irregular rainfall which has also delayed main season planting. The most affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the Center of the country are perfoming well so far and in the Nothern parts May rainfall has also improved crop conditions. Finally in South Sudan there are rainfall deficits across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia: We expect lower than average cereals production levels in northern Syria as a result of the ongoing conflict, but also in northern Iraq (Kurdistan region) and the centre-west of Iran due to the delayed onset of vegetation growth. 

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape are badly affected by drought and significantly below average production is expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: In the southern part early crop conditions are generally favorable so far, with dry spells visible mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo as well as in the western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces). Planting is going on in the Sahelian belt and irrigated rice is reported to perform well.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: For the northern part of SE Asia (Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Northern Philippines), the main season rice planting has started while for the southern part (Indonesia, South Philippines, Timor Leste), the harvest of the main season rice is underway, with good levels of production expected; this harvest should be followed by the start of dry season rice planting.

Central America and Caribbean: The main crop season (primera) started late due to lower than normal rainfall in April that lead to soil moisture constraints in the dry corridor in Central America, in particular Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Positive rainfall in May mitigated drought concerns and maize planting has already begun. 

At the end of April 2017 the main situation of concern for agricultural hotspots in countries affected by food insecurity is still located in Eastern Africa with poor long rains, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also experienced a delayed start of the main season (eg. Iran and Iraq) or low cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East Africa: The long rains season has not performed well so far in Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. In Kenya rainfall has been below average in most of the country, and in the high production areas in Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported. Somalia has received some rainfall in April, but the cumulated amounts in both Southern and North Western agricultural areas are still clearly below average and below Gu average would further aggravate the critical food security situation following the failed Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center still suffer from late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast area again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country are affected by rainfall deficits leading to a late seasonal start. The North Eastern pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg season rainfall was partially below average and early Meher rainfall has also been below average in the Southern part of the country (including East Oromia and Somali regions). Finally in South Sudan there are rainfall deficits across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

Good rainfall in northern Syria in March-April should favour growth of natural vegetation but cereals production is expected to be lower than average due to conflict.  In Iraq, good rainfall in the Kurdistan region. Still below average conditions along the Euphrate river. In Iran, delayed vegetation growth in the north-west and centre west - situation to be monitored. Dry conditions over eastern Afghanistan (south and east of Kabul) at the very start of the crop season.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region end of April corresponds to the end of the  main season. Most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). The main exceptions in the region are in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: The main season planting has started and early crop conditions are generally favorable so far.  Irrigated rice is reported to perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. In March and April rainfall has been below average, but with the exception of North East and North West Algeria crop conditions are not affected yet. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: Harvest is underway in northern Southeast Asia and in Indonesia with generally positive yield prospects due to sufficient irrigation water. Dry season rice is also progressing under generally favorable conditions in Vietnam, Cambodia and Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Most regions remain out of season, planting of the 2017 Primera season is expected in mid-May. The main summer season in Bolivia and Peru is nearing completion, with above average prospects despite the dry conditions at the beginning of the season.   

In March 2017 the main hotspots for agricultural production remain concentrated in Eastern Africa with a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also showing a delayed start of the main season, due to a combination of irregular rainfall, abundant cloud cover and in some cases snow.   

West Africa: The main season has not started yet and irrigated rice is reported to perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

East Africa: The long rains season is starting in Kenya and follows a below average short rains production combined with drought affecting the pastoral regions in the Northern part of the country. In the marginal agricultural areas along the coast, a failed short rains season is currently being followed by a delay in the onset of the long rains. Somalia is currently in the dry season, but a sequence of seasonal failures have led to an ongoing humanitarian crisis and millions of people depend on external aid, while wheather forecasts indicate below average Gu rainfall, risking to further aggravate the situation.  In Tanzania the main maize area in the South and Center are benefitting from rainfall in February and March leading to an improvement of an initially delayed season. The initial rainfall of the second season in the bimodal areas has performed well so far. Rainfall has improved also in Uganda over the whole cattle corridor, leading to a positive start of the main season and an improvement of pasture conditions. The bimodal parts of Ethiopia have received some early Belg rainfall, but vegetation activity and water availability in all the Southern States is still very low following the drought experienced in late 2016.

Southern Africa: the abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since mid December has continued throughout February and March and has generally improved crop and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West), Namibia (Kunene) and Madagascar (Centre/North) and parts of Mozambique (Centre/West). South Africa has announced bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main maize areas.  The army worm outbreak that affected several countries at the beginning of the year has had different impact across the region, with limited effects reported for Zimbabwe and higher losses in Zambia.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has experienced good rainfall for cereals since December with intensive rainfall and some snow in February. Prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Some rainfall deficits can be observed in North/Eastern Algeria.

Middle East - Central Asia: below average vegetation conditions and delayed start of crop season (possibly due to snow in central Asia in TJK, KGZ, central AFG - or to failed autumn sowings of winter cereals. The latter is particularly is particularly evident in Syria, but affects the whole region, including North and West Iraq,  the Northern half of Iran till Turkmenistan, West Kirghizstan, East Uzbekistan and North Afghanistan.

SE Asia: Very wet conditions in southern Philippines (Mindamao) in mid February and early March may have affected wet season rice close to harvest.

Central America and Caribbean: crop development is close to average due to positive rainfalls received in the last two months and generally compensating for dry condition at the beginning of the season.

At the end of February 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries are relatively good and the 3 major hotspot countries (Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania) have remained the same as in January. Several minor hotspots remain in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in the middle East and South East Asia.

West Africa: the main season in 2016 has performed well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production due to the ongoing conflict is North East Nigeria.

East Africa: The failed Deyr rainfall following a low production Gu season and link to scarce availability of pasture and drinking water is causing a humanitarian crisis. On top of the current critical situation, forecasts for the next Gu season starting in April are also negative.  In the coastal areas of Kenya short rains have failed and production in the rest of the country was below average. Most of the pastoral areas in North are experiencing a particularly harsh dry season. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions was affected by drought and the main maize season in its initial stage in the South is also affected by rainfall deficits. A similar situation (below average short season production followed by dry onset of main season) can be observed in the central and southern parts of Uganda.

Southern Africa: the abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since mid December has continued throughout February and has generally improved crop and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West), Namibia (North West) and Madagascar (rice areas). South Africa has announced bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main maize areas.  Concerns are due to an outbreak of army worms destroying maize plants in Zambia Zimbabwe and Malawi. Treatments against the non endemic pest have shown to be scarcely effective.

Middle East: Winter cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE cereal producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be monitored and confirmed in the next months.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions, except for excess rain in the eastern part of central Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable. Despite rainfall deficits observed since January, vegetation conditions in the most affected areas (Bolivia and Peru) has improved due to normal or above-normal rainfall situation at the beginning of February.

At the end of January 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries are relatively good with the exception of 3 major (Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania) and several minor hotspots countries In Sub Saharan Africa.

West Africa: most of the region is currently out of season and the main season ending in late 2016 has generally performed well.

East Africa: In Somalia the Deyr season has experienced a crop production failure comparable to the 2010 drought which led to a major famine. Pastoral areas across the country are also affected by low biomass and water shortages. The main crop season was not very performant also in Southern Ethiopia, while the most productive areas of the country had generally a good production. In the coastal areas of Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also expected to be very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought and the main maize season in the central area is also affected by rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: despite a slightly late start of the main seasonal rainfall, from the second dekad of December there has been abundant rainfall across the region and favorable agro-climatic conditions with the exception of parts of Angola (North and Central), Namibia (North West), Northern Mozambique and Madagascar. An outbreak of army worms destroying maize plants has been reported in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.

Middle East: Winter cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE cereal producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be monitored and confirmed in the next months.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions, but possible tropical storm impacts in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable across Central America and the Postrera harvests are nearing completion with production prospects above average. In Peru and Bolivia, the summer growing season is underway and maize production is still affected by dry conditions in November.

In mid-December agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good with only minor agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South East Asia. In Sub Saharan Africa however la Nina related drought conditions are worsening in parts of East Africa and there are signs of a delayed main season across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: The Postrera season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable across Central America, despite some drought concerns in northern Nicaragua and El Salvador and some floods in southern Nicaragua due to Hurricane Otto. Drought in the coastal regions of Peru is affecting maize crops in their early development after planting.

Middle East: In Iraq drier than average conditions over southern Iraq to be monitored.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region. 

East Africa: in Somalia the Deyr season has been seriously affected drought from the beginning of the season in October and late rains in November were not sufficient for recovery. The second season is also delayed in Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). In the coastal areas of Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also expected to be very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought. 

According to WFP the drought is largely comparable to late 2010 and might even be worse in some areas: http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp289530.pdf

Southern Africa: the main crop season is still at an early stage in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia, parts of Botswana and Southern Madagascar. In these countries a new drought following last year’s low production season affected by El Nino would have serious consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions. Only in Pakistan we can see low greenness of rangeland areas.

At the end of November agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good without agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South East Asia. Minor hotspots situations are mainly limited to East Africa, while there are first signs of a delayded main season across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: the postrera seasons is progressing well due to close to average rainfall performance across the region.Some dry spells have been reported by other sources in El Salvador.

Middle East: no rainfall over Oct – Nov 20 in the centre-south of Iraq and in some Syrian governorates (Dayr Az Azor, Damascus) or below average rainfall over other governorates (Raqqa, Hassakeh, Homs) may jeopardize wheat and barley crops recently sown.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region.

East Africa: in Somalia the second season has been seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit affecting the South and Central regions. Pastoral areas in central Somalia and Puntland area also suffering drought conditions. The second season is also delayed in Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). Rainfall deficits are threatening short rains season in coastal areas of Kenya (Where this is the main crop season), while the highly prodcutive Victoria basin is also showing impact of rainfall deficit. In Tanzania both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought.

Southern Africa: the main crop season is just starting in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia and parts of Botswana. In these countries a new drought following the last years low production season affected by El Nino would have serious consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

South East Asia: crops (rice mainly) seem to have recovered with respect to the average condition, following an initial delay in rice planting in Vietnam (Mekong delta), Cambodia (Battambang area), Thailand (central region) and Myanmar (Irrawaddy delta), with some concerns remaining mainly in North Vietnam.

In late October agricultural conditions in most food insecure areas are generally positive with only a limited number of hotspots with climatic anomalies affecting production.

AFRICA: in West Africa the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region. The only area with a prolonged dryspell starting in late August is in central Nigeria, where Maize and Millet yields could be affected. Late season rainfall was slightly below average also in Southern Niger and South East Senegal. In East Africa the second season in Somalia is expected to be seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit. The second season seems slightly delayed also in Southern Ethiopia, South East Kenya, Northern Tanzania, parts of Uganda and Rwanda. The low rainfall is typical for the ongoing moderate La Nina event.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: The postrera season is generally progressing well with minor local dry spots in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala. The only hotspot in the region is Haiti, where accourding to UN OCHA 80% of the crop area has been destroyed by Hurricane Matthew.

MIDDLE EAST: Poor harvest of winter cereals in N Syria (Aleppo, Raqqa and Deir es Zor) is followed by likely decrease of irrigation along the Euphrate river. The latter problem is also partially affecting Iraq.

SOUTHEAST ASIA: The main rice season in Myanmar has been affected by drought in the late phase. Also there is concern in the Mekong delta for floods and effects of excessive rainfall, while dry conditions are damaging crops in North Vietnam.