Southern Africa: At harvest time the region is suffering the consequences of prolonged drought in crop and rangeland areas and of extreme weather events. Crop production prospects in most countries are hampered by the impacts of the delayed rainfall onset and by the prolonged dry spells that followed. Even the most important maize suppliers of the region, including South Africa and Zambia, are expecting a crop production decline of more than 10% as compared to last year. The export ban on maize and maize meal put in place by Zambia is a symptom for a possibly challenging regional maize supply situation in late 2019/early 2020. Namibia has declared a state of emergency due to the drought that has affected the 2018/2019 season since the beginning, causing failure of rain-fed crops and increased livestock mortality. Poor pastoral conditions are reducing food security coping strategies in Zimbabwe and threatening pastoral livelihoods in Botswana. In Mozambique, the agricultural sector was severely damaged by the two tropical cyclones that hit the country within 6 weeks in March/April, and the diminished production prospects and labor opportunities are adding further pressure to food security in the area. In contrast, Malawi is expecting an increase in the maize production compared with last year, despite localized areas of low production and increased risk of food insecurity in the south, due to floods caused by Cyclone Idai.

East Africa: During May the severe drought conditions that have caused delayed planting, low areas and below average crop conditions across East Africa have persisted. In Ethiopia this is causing low Belg season production prospects in the southern part of the country, whereas seasonal forecasts for the main season (from June to September) also point to below average rainfall, increasing the risk of food insecurity in the second half of 2019. Close to the end of the main rainy season, most of Somalia has received insufficient rains for normal crop growth and crop production is expected to be 40-50% below average due to limited areas planted and crop failure in the main producing areas in Bay (sorghum), Lower Shabelle (Maize) and in the North West. Pastoral areas are subject to rapid vegetation degradation and low water availability for livestock. Marginal agricultural crop areas in Kenya experienced crop failure, while crop growth is negatively affected by dry conditions also in the high potential areas in the West and in the Rift Valley and drought is hampering pastures productivity in the semi-arid northern and eastern parts of the country. Most of Uganda, and in particular the north/eastern part of the country, including Karamoja, has received insufficient rainfall and experienced abnormally high temperatures in the last 3 months, increasing the risk of low crop production and low pastures availability. According to seasonal rainfall forecasts just released by the 52nd GHACOF, the rainfall situation is likely to improve for the main season in western Kenya, Sudan and parts of Uganda. But the drought conditions experienced so far will in any case deteriorate food security conditions and increase the number of people in IPC phase 3 or higher, across vulnerable areas in Somalia, South Sudan and parts of Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

North Africa: Close to the end of the main cereal season in Morocco, the impact of high temperatures and prolonged drought appears more severe and spatially extended than previously reported. According to the MARS yield forecast issued on the 20th of May, average national yields are 22% below the 5 years average for wheat and 30% for barley. Crop conditions remain overall favorable in eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Parts of Tunisia experienced exceptional rainfall in March leading to water logging and potential localized crop damage.

West and Central Africa: First season maize crop conditions are generally favorable in the bi-modal parts of the region. However, a slight rainfall deficit in April/May is showing first impacts on vegetation and possible delays in planting in southern Chad, parts of Nigeria (Niger, Kwara, Kaduna regions), northern parts of: Ghana, Benin, Togo and Cameroon.

Middle-East: In the Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Iran), prospects continue to be favourable for winter cereals and pastures thanks to abundant rainfall since October 2018.

Central and South Asia: In central Asia rainfall was also abundant over most regions and winter cereals and pastures production is expected to be very good. In Eastern Uzbekistan (Namagan, Andijan and Fergana), winter cereals are also in good conditions despite below average rainfall over the last three months.

In South Asia, the harvest of rabi crops (winter cereals) in Pakistan is about to finish with good production levels. In Afghanistan, weather conditions have been favourable in most regions, except Jawzjan in the north were biomass levels are below average. In the centre-east of the country (from Ghor to Kabul & Paktya), winter cereals and pastures, whose growth has been slowed down by snow cover and low temperatures in February March, have recovered and prospects are now favourable.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia, drier than average conditions (linked to El Niño according to the Thai Meteorological Department) and high temperatures, have affected a region centered on Thailand and extending to Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao. The late arrival of summer rains is delaying the planting of main season rice while dry season rice production is expected to be lower than in 2018 in Thailand as a result of a reduced area of irrigated rice (following second season-rice plantation quota set by the Thai government to preserve water reservoirs). In the Philippines, the start of the main season rice is delayed in the centre of the country as farmers wait for the start of the rain season.

In North Korea there is concern for early season crops (wheat, barley and potato): the southern half of the rice bowl area (i.e. Hwanghae Bukto, Hwanghae Namdo and Pyongyang-Si) received half of its normal rain over the last month and the lack of snow cover during winter over most regions exposed wheat and barley to freezing temperatures. This comes in addition to a poor 2018 harvest of rice and maize, as reported by FAO/WFP in May 2019. Moreover, at end of May, the area of flooded rice fields in the rice bowl area is clearly lower than in 2018.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Planting of the primera season is underway in Central America with a slight delay of the season, mainly in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Uneven rainfall distribution and some dry spells in April coupled with high temperatures, had reduced moisture of soils at very early stages of the season. The situation has recovered due to positive rains received in May.

In Haiti, spring season is ongoing with some remaining concerns in Northeastern and Central regions as a consequence of the poor early season rainfall performance.

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season is ending with the harvest of summer crops starting in April. The region experienced a delayed onset of rains, followed by irregular rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells between mid-February and end of March. This resulted in reduced planted areas, poor germination and permanent wilting of crops in many parts of the region. Important maize suppliers of the region, such as South Africa and Zambia were affected by drought conditions and production prospects especially in southern Zambia are below-average. Already vulnerable and food insecure areas in southern Angola, northern Namibia and eastern Botswana experienced widespread rainfall deficits during most of the agricultural season, limiting crop production of 2018/2019. Poor rainfall conditions deteriorated pastoral conditions, leading to livestock deaths and further exacerbating food security, especially in Namibia, Zimbabwe and Botswana. Moreover, the eastern part of the region was hit by two major cyclones in 6 weeks, cyclone Idai and cyclone Kenneth, that brought torrential rains, strong winds and flooding, that resulted in widespread destruction of cropping areas, infrastructure and homes, reducing production prospects and increasing food insecurity.

East Africa: Drought conditions with little rainfall and high temperatures have continued and intensified in late March and April in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Tanzania. This confirms the below average seasonal forecast and is linked to major recent tropical storms and cyclones like Iday and Kenneth, diverting atmospheric moisture southwards. In southern Ethiopia (mainly in Oromia and SNNP states), Belg season areas show below average crop conditions and pastoral areas are affected by prolonged drought. Southern Somalia has received practically no Gu rainfall (by 20th of April) increasing the risk of another failed crop season after the recent droughts in 2017 and failed 2018 short rains. In Kenya, early season rainfall deficit is causing delayed planting and low crop areas in the west and does already show a negative impact on crop and rangeland conditions in the center, southern and coastal areas. Most of Uganda, and in particular the northern part of the country, has received less than 80% of seasonal rainfall and experienced high temperatures in the last 2 months, increasing the risk of low crop production and low pastures availability. Although rainfall in the region has increased in late April, it is very likely that seasonal totals will remain significantly below average.

North Africa: Rainfall has improved in Morocco in March and April and yield forecasts according to the MARS bulletin are below average only for barley, due to prolonged drought conditions in the Oriental region. Crop conditions remain overall favorable in eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Parts of Tunisia experienced exceptional rainfall in March leading to water logging and potential localized crop damage.

West and Central Africa: First season maize planting started in the bi-seasonal parts of the region under generally favorable agro-climatic conditions. A slight delay in the start of the main season in northern was caused by high temperatures and below average rainfall in late March and April in northern Ghana, Togo and Benin.

Middle-East: From a climatic point of view prospects are favorable for winter cereals and pastures, thanks to above average rainfall since October 2018. In Iran, it is too early to assess the impact of floods on crop production. 

Central and South Asia: prospects for winter cereals and pasture production are very favorable thanks to abundant rainfall over most regions. Only eastern Uzbekistan received lower than average rainfall but winter cereals appear to be in good conditions. 

South Asia (Pakistan and Afghanistan) also received abundant rainfall that will benefit winter cereals and pastures. However in the centre-east of Afghanistan (from Ghor to Kabul and from Bamyan to Paktika), winter cereals growth is delayed, probably because of the cold spell of February March over the region.

South-East Asia: Dry season rice production is expected to be below average as a result of reduction in the sown areas in central and north eastern Thailand (Suphanburi, Lopburi, Nakhon R., Khon Kaen, Maha Sarakham) and north Cambodia (Battambang). In the whole region rainfall has been below average and temperatures above average by 1.5 to 4 degrees C since November 2018. In Thailand, at the national level, the secondary season production drop is however more than off-set by the favorable 2018 main season. The southern half of Lao has also suffered from these abnormally dry conditions.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Land preparation for the primera season, which will start next month, is underway, with slightly above average temperatures and below average rainfall across Central America. In the Caribbean, main season rice planting started in Cuba and conditions are favorable thanks to close to average rains. In Haiti the spring season is ongoing and some concern remains in Centre, Nord and Nord Est regions, due to early season dryness and moisture deficits.

 

Southern Africa: The central and western parts of the region are experiencing enduring rainfall deficits and drought conditions, whereas the eastern part was severely hit by heavy rains, floods and strong winds caused by Cyclone Idai. Major flooding in central Mozambique and southern Malawi has claimed human lives and caused  damage to infrastructure and homes, whereas the storm damages extend beyond the flooded areas and include Eastern Zimbabwe. The destruction of standing crops in the 3 countries will cause reduced food production and contribute to increased food insecurity and health risks.

Significantly below average and irregular rainfall since the start of the agricultural season have deteriorated crop conditions in southern Angola, northern Namibia, eastern Botswana, southern Zambia and Lesotho. Southern Zambia in particular is experiencing widespread crop failure due to a prolonged dry spell in February/March.  The central key producing regions of South Africa received beneficial rainfall in March, preventing further damage to the crops. Poor pastoral conditions resulting from prolonged dry spells and high temperatures are observed across Namibia, in western Zimbabwe and western South Africa.

More information and maps about the areas concerned by cyclone Idai and by the extreme drought in Zambia’s Southern region can be found in the March 2019 Special Focus https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/files/special_focus_2019_03.pdf

 

East Africa: Planting in the bi-modal areas of the region is generally delayed by rainfall deficits and high temperatures affecting parts of: Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Tanzania. According to the updated GHACOF seasonal rainfall forecast, the cumulated seasonal rainfall will remain below average for most of the region and tropical storms and cyclones in Southern Africa (such as Idai) are diverting atmospheric moisture southwards. In southern Ethiopia, Belg season areas show below average crop conditions and pastoral areas are affected by prolonged drought. In Somalia insufficient rainfall will further aggravate the impact of low crop and pastures production of the 2018/2019 short rains. In Kenya early season rainfall deficit is causing delayed planting and low crop areas in the west and is also posing at risk marginal agricultural and pastoral activities in the south east and coastal parts of the country.

 

North Africa: Above average mean temperatures and decreased rainfall starting in the last dekad of February and continuing through March are putting at risk the initially very favorable crop conditions in Eastern and Southern Morocco and to some extent also in Western Algeria. Crop conditions remain favorable in Eastern Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt.

West and Central Africa: First season maize planting started in the bi-seasonal parts of the region under generally favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Middle-East: In the Middle East, conditions continue to be very favorable to the growth of winter cereals and pastures thanks to above average rainfall since October 2018. Localized flash floods occurred in March in Iran, Iraq and northern Syria and caused life losses as well as damage to infrastructure, no information is available on crop damage.

Central and South Asia: In Central and South Asia, conditions have been favorable to winter cereals overall and despite below average precipitation, in particular in March, in the eastern half of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan, sowing of spring cereals will start in April with favorable temperatures (about 2 degrees C above average) and moisture conditions, especially in the northern Oblasts. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, most regions received above average precipitations that will benefit winter and spring crops as well as pastures. In Afghanistan however, vegetation growth is delayed in a large area going from the centre (Ghor, Daykundi) to the east (Ghazni, Paktika, Paktya, Kabul) due to temperatures colder than average by 3 to 8 degrees C. 

 

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia, irrigated dry season rice, which is approaching harvest time, appears to be in good conditions in continental south-east Asia as well as in the northern Philippines. However below average rainfall (as low as 50% of the average rainfall of the last 3 months) and 2-4 degrees C above average temperatures have affected natural vegetation and rain-fed crops in central and north-eastern Thailand as well as south Lao. In Indonesia, wet-season rice has been benefiting from abundant rainfall since October - November 2018

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Apante bean season is complete in Nicaragua and Guatemala with close to average prospects due to good rains received. In Haiti, planting of spring season maize and beans is underway with some concerns due to early season dryness in the North-west and Central regions, where planting is delayed.

 

East Africa: Low October-December rainfall, followed by abnormally high temperatures since January 2019, is continuing to cause rapid deterioration of pastoral resources in southern Sudan, northern and eastern Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia, semi-arid pastoral areas in Kenya and Karamoja (Uganda). This is driving food prices upwards across the region and further aggravating the severity of some of the most troubling ongoing food crises, such as the ones taking place in South Sudan and Somalia. Seasonal rainfall forecasts indicate above-average main season rainfall in 2019 for most of the region (Source: http://www.icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf), but the potential positive effects of the next crop season will not alleviate food security problems before mid-2019.

Southern Africa: The late onset of rainfall in the first part of the season, and the erratic spatial and temporal distribution in December to February, led to reductions in the planted area or poor crop development in many parts of the region, mainly in central South Africa, southern Angola, northern Namibia, central and southern Zimbabwe and Lesotho. In South Africa, the area planted is 10% less than the 10-year average; however improved rainfall since the beginning of February in the central provinces of North West and Free State may prevent further damage to crop development. Pastoral areas across Namibia, in western Botswana and in parts of South Africa continue to deteriorate due to moisture deficits. The main cereal-producing regions in Angola, and crop areas in Malawi, northern and central Mozambique and Swaziland, continue to receive beneficial rainfall and are progressing well. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability (SPP) analysis for February-April, below-average rainfall is expected in southern Angola, most of Namibia, parts of western and eastern Botswana, southern Zambia and central Mozambique, whereas average rainfall is expected in central and eastern South Africa, Zambia, northern Mozambique and Malawi.

North Africa: Conditions for crop and rangeland vegetation continue to be generally above-average in the region, thanks to above-average rainfall and favourable temperature conditions. However, in localised areas of Morocco (Oriental and Marrakech regions), vegetation conditions have been adversely affected by high temperatures and low rainfall since January.

West and Central Africa: No relevant change since last month.

Middle East: Throughout the region, conditions are very favourable for the growth of winter cereals and pastures thanks to very good rainfall since October 2018, which has even caused local floods, for example in western Iran at the end of January.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, conditions are favourable for (still dormant) winter cereals thanks to good precipitation over this winter. In Afghanistan, in Jawzjan (north of the country) alone, the growth of winter crops appears delayed with respect to the average. In Pakistan, moisture conditions in the southern provinces have also improved compared to the dry situation observed up to the end of 2018, and localised floods were even reported in Punjab and Balochistan in mid-February.

South-East Asia: In continental South-East Asia, conditions are favourable for dry season rice, except in central Thailand where rainfall has been below-average since mid-January; this is also the case in northern Philippines at the start of the dry season rice.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Dry conditions prevailed in February, with below-average rainfall observed across Central America, particularly along the Atlantic Basin. Nevertheless, the harvest of the Apante season is not expected to be seriously affected in Guatemala and Nicaragua, due to adequate rainfall early in the season. The rest of Central America is currently out of season.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of March 2019.

East Africa: Crop production of the second season is below-average in Somalia, marginal areas in Kenya and localized areas in Ethiopia, mainly due to irregular rainfall distribution between October and December 2018. Low short season rainfall followed by high temperatures in the dry season (December and January) is leading to rapid deterioration of pastoral vegetation productivity in Southern Sudan, north/east Somalia, semi-arid pastoral areas in Kenya and Karamoja (Uganda). Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season in 2018, but in Sudan production prospects are below-average due to high input prices and early season flood damage.

Southern Africa: Crop conditions reflect a mixed situation across the region with above-average rainfall in Malawi, Northern Mozambique, north/east Zambia and early-season dry conditions in South Africa, Namibia, southern Angola. In January, rainfall deficits worsened, increasing their impact on croplands and pastures in southern Angola and southwestern Zimbabwe. The irregular rainfall distribution hampers crop development in the main cereal-producing regions of the central part of South Africa, whereas rangelands conditions across the country are reported to be between average and poor. Below-average crop conditions can be observed also in the eastern part of Botswana and in the northern part of Namibia, while below-average rangeland conditions occurred in the western part of Botswana and across most regions in Namibia. Well above-average rainfall was received in Mozambique, Malawi, northeastern Zimbabwe and northeast Zambia and has led to good crop and rangeland conditions in these areas. However, heavy rainfall has led to flooding in some parts of Mozambique and Malawi.  According to seasonal rainfall outlook (NOOA, CPC, 10 January 2019), parts of the region (southern Angola, Namibia, western Botswana, southern Zambia, Mozambique), are forecasted to receive below-average rainfall until the end of March 2019.

North Africa: Rainfall amounts have increased again in January after a dry period in December and agro-climatic conditions are favorable in the whole area for winter crop development. Crop and rangeland vegetation conditions are generally above average and there is no visible negative impact of the December rainfall deficit.

West and Central Africa: The main 2018 season in the Sahel was generally positive thanks to abundant rainfall. Nigeria has achieved an above average 2018 production, with concerns remaining for areas hit by flooding in September and because of internal displacement and impacts of the ongoing conflict in the North East.

Middle-East: In the middle east, winter cereals and pastures are in very good conditions following the heavy rains of end of November - December. 

Central and South Asia: In central and South Asia, crop conditions are generally favourable, in particular in Afghanistan with above average temperatures since end of November and good rainfall since the start of January in the northern and western provinces, stricken by the 2018 drought. Similarly good conditions are observed in Pakistan, where even the southern provinces (Sindh and Balochistan), affected by drought in 2018, show good crop biomass levels. 

South-East Asia: Conditions appear favourable for the start of the dry season rice on the continent and the main season rice for Indonesia.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: At the end of the postrera season in Central America, despite some crop losses as result of a delayed onset of the season and dry spells from mid-June to August, generally favorable outcomes are expected thanks to late season improvements since September. As a result, the 2018 aggregate cereal production in Central America and Caribbean is forecast at 44.2 million tons, lower than 2017 (-1.7%), but above the previous five-year average (43.4 million tons). According to FAO, Guatemala’s production is estimated at an average level of 1.9 million tons, while the aggregate production in El Salvador is anticipated at 950 000, slightly lower than the previous five-year average (1 000 000).  Maize production in Nicaragua is forecasted at an average level of 420 000 tons, while in Honduras it is anticipated to decline by 2.5% compared with the average of the last five-years. In Haiti, the aggregate maize production is forecast at 185 000 tons, 13% lower than the last five-year average, due to drought (FAO, Crop prospects and Food Situation December 2018 http://www.fao.org/3/CA2726EN/ca2726en.pd).

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The February assessment will be released at the end of February 2019

 

 

East Africa: Limited and irregular rainfall has caused decreased crop and rangeland productivity for the short rainy season in most of Somalia, eastern of Kenya, south-east Ethiopia and north-west Tanzania. At the end of December and close to harvest time, many of these areas have received only half of the average seasonal rainfall with clear negative repercussions on yields. In South Sudan, rainfall has been very irregular in time and space since September, reducing pastoral vegetation productivity and therefore adding pressure to one of the currently most severe food security crises in the continent. Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season.

Southern Africa: Most of the region has experienced below-average rainfall since the beginning of the season in October, leading to poor crop and rangeland conditions in: Botswana, southern Angola, northern Namibia, Lesotho, southern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia and South Africa. The unfavorable agro-climatic conditions (rainfall deficits, high temperatures) are likely to have caused planting delays, decreased planted areas and damage to initial crop growth stages. In most cases, and considering the early stage of the season, recovery is still possible in case of rainfall improvement in the next weeks and continuous monitoring is crucial. Above average rainfall has been observed since the end of November in north-eastern Zimbabwe, Malawi, north and central Mozambique and north Zambia.

North Africa: After a good start of the winter crop season in October/November, December was characterized by above average temperatures and decreased rainfall in the coastal areas of Algeria, northern Morocco and parts of Tunisia. There is no visible negative impact on vegetation yet, but rainfall improvement in January and February will be relevant for good crop development.

West and Central Africa: The main season in the Sahel was generally positive thanks to abundant rainfall. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, whereas limitations to agricultural production in 2018 were due mainly to major flooding of riverine areas in September, internal displacement and to the ongoing conflict in the North East.

Middle-East: During November-December 2018 and in contrast with the 2017-2018 season, Syria, Iraq and western Iran, received above average rainfall (sometimes causing floods as in Ninewa, Iraq), which is beneficial to winter cereals and pastures. 

In Yemen, which imports over 90% of its cereals needs, the food security situation is mainly driven by conflict, although the dry spell of this autumn in Al Hudaydah is likely to have  impacted negatively millet crop (usually harvested in December) in the center of the governorate.

Central and South Asia: In central Asia, winter cereals are dormant and conditions appear to be favorable. In south Asia, the last three months were drier than average in south Pakistan, in particular in Balochistan, where winter cereal sowings have been reduced with respect to the previous season, as revealed by Sentinel 2 imagery (e.g. west of the city of Usta Muhammad). December was also particularly dry in north & west Afghanistan with 25 to 50% of the average rainfall received, however it is too early to assess the impact of this dry spell on winter cereals or pastures. 

South-East Asia: In south-east Asia, harvest of main season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in the whole region, whereas in Indonesia the main season rice is in the growing period.  In the northern Philippines (Central Luzon and Calbarzon) rainfed maize and rice received only 50% of the usual 600 -700 mm of rainfall between the last dekad of  September and the 2nd dekad of December.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of the Postrera season is ongoing in with close to average prospects for almost all the countries. After a delayed onset of the season and some early dryness, crop conditions have generally recovered in almost all of the countries thanks to beneficial rains in recent weeks. Nonetheless, some localized crop damages have been observed in subsistence farming areas, where the Primera season dryness affected Postrera planting and in the Gulf of Fonseca where heavy rains in early October led to crop damage. Planting operations of the Apante season have started in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Despite rainfall improvements in Haiti, seasonal dryness could strike secondary season production, especially in southern and northwestern areas of the country.  

 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The January assessment will be released at the end of January 2019

East Africa: Below average rainfall is putting at risk crop and rangeland productivity for the short rainy season in many areas of Somalia, Kenya and south-east Ethiopia. In late November many of these areas have received only 30-50% of the average seasonal rainfall, making plant recovery before the end of the season unlikely. Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during the main season, but in Sudan production prospects are below average due to high input prices and early season flood damage.

Southern Africa: Most agricultural regions in the area have been experiencing below average rainfall throughout November, when they are in their early vegetative development stages. In the main cereal producing regions of South Africa and Angola and in pastoral areas in Northern Namibia, rainfall deficits coupled with above average temperatures are increasing the risk of crop and pastures damage. Very little rainfall has fallen in the last month in Zambia and Zimbabwe leading to dry crop and rangeland conditions. Average to above average rainfall in the next weeks will be crucial to ensure normal vegetation development.

West and Central Africa: Harvests across the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during the main season. In south-western Mauritania and localized areas in Senegal pastures conditions are below average, despite improvements in September and October. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, while limitations to agricultural production in 2018 are due to major flooding of riverine areas in September and to the ongoing conflict in the North East.

North Africa: According to the latest MARS bulletin “In Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia the sowing of winter wheat started in good conditions and within the normal window (early October), which for Morocco is significantly earlier than last years campaign. Crops are well established and favourable soil moisture conditions boosted emergence of winter crops which are currently 10 days advanced compared to an average season”. In Egypt after a minor delay in winter season onset, crop conditions are now close to average in all regions and crop conditions are above average in the western part of the Nile delta.

Middle-East: In the whole region (Syria, Iraq and Iran), the winter cereals season started under favourable conditions with above average rainfall from the second dekad of October. 
In Yemen, the food security crisis mainly due to conflict is compounded by the dry conditions of the last four months over the coastal areas (from Hajjah to Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Lahj and Abyan) where about one third to half of the average rainfall was received. This drought has been affecting sorghum at the end of its cycle and most likely millet at the start of its growth, as well as pastures.   

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, after the dry conditions that affected mainly Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this summer, favourable rainfall conditions prevail since October for the start of winter cereals. 
In South Asia, rainfall conditions are favourable for the start of winter cereals in Afghanistan, in particular in the western and northern regions affected by the 2018 drought. In Pakistan, sowings of Rabi crops (winter wheat and barley) are ongoing; it is however too early to assess the effect of possible irrigation water shortage on crop growth in the southern provinces.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia (with the exception of Indonesia where main season rice is starting in Java and Sumatra), the harvest of main season rice is ongoing with favourable prospects, except in the areas stricken by typhoons and floods such as southern Laos or northern Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Postrera season continues under mixed conditions due to a delayed onset of the season followed by abundant rains at the beginning of October. While conditions have improved in several areas where average and above-average rainfall was registered, seasonal dryness continues to affect parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. A similar situation is observed in Haiti where despite positive October rainfall, the overall situation has slightly deteriorated due to below average rainfall in November.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The December assessment will be released in early January 2019 

East Africa: At the harvesting stage seasonal outputs in the northern part of the region are generally positive, with the exception of localized areas affected by early season floods (e.g. North East and Central Sudan) or dryness (limited areas in East Oromia, Afar and SNNPR in Ethiopia). In the bi-seasonal areas of Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, the second season has started with close to average rainfall and some initial delay in Southern Somalia, Uganda and parts of Rwanda and Burundi. Pastoral areas in north-east Somalia and in south-east Ethiopia have experienced a harsh dry season and low deyr rainfall so far.  The Deyr season rainfall forecast according to the CHC (Climate Hazard Centre) is slightly below average, despite moderate El Niño conditions, which normally favor abundant rainfall in the region.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative stages of summer crops are ongoing across the region under close to average weather conditions. A slight water deficit is concentrated in central and south-east Angola and in the north-western parts of Zambia. Above average rainfall in the central and eastern parts of South Africa provides beneficial conditions for the planting of the main crop season, while the winter wheat crop outlook according to official estimates is positive.

West and Central Africa: Harvest prospects in the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during the season. Only in parts of Senegal and in south-western Mauritania, crop and pastures conditions are below average, despite improvements in September and October. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, however the August/September floods have cause significant damage to riverine crop areas across the country and have contributed to an exceptional Cholera outbreak. Renewed conflict in north eastern Nigeria has increased population displacement in October. In the lake Chad basin agro-climatic conditions were generally good, but insecurity remains a limitation for agricultural  production.

North Africa: in the ongoing winter crops sowing period the Maghreb has experienced a timely rainfall onset and above average rainfall amounts so far. A heatwave in Morocco in September, reported by the MARS bulletin, has no visible impact on winter season planting time or early crop conditions. A slight winter season planting delay is visible in parts of Egypt.

Middle-East: In Syria, Iraq and Iran, sowing of winter cereals started under favourable conditions with the timely onset of average to above average rainfall in the last dekad of October. It is however too early to assess the start of the cereals season as the bulk of sowings will take place in November.

In Iraq, harvest of irrigated summer crops is ongoing in the south of the country, with a strong reduction of the production in the rice belt area (Najaf and Qadissiya) as a result of the government ban on water-intensive summer crops (rice, corn): according to the New York Post, less than 3% of the 2017 rice area was sown in 2018 to save on water. 

In western Yemen (Al Hudaydah, Hajjah), sorghum and millet biomass remains below average as a result of an ongoing drought (less than on third of the average rainfall was received over the last 3 months). This drought, which comes on top of the ongoing conflict and blockade of the Al Hudaydah harbour, will worsen the ongoing severe food security crisis of the country.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, specifically in Uzbekistan (Navoiy, Kashkadarya and Bukhara) and Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), the production of summer crops (including cotton) and pastures is below average and below the 2017 production as a result of reduced irrigation and summer drought for eastern Uzbekistan (Namagan, Fergana and Andijan). 

In South Asia, southern Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) expects a below average production of summer crops as a result of reduced irrigation water (which led to a reduction in the sown area as well as crop biomass with respect to 2017 and average). In Afghanistan, conditions are favourable for the start of the winter cereals season, in particular in the north and west of the country (hit by drought in 2017/2018), thanks to timely and average to above average rainfall.

South-East Asia: conditions are favourable for the main season rice, with the harvest just starting. The entity of crop losses due to typhoons and floods in July and August in Laos, July and September in the Philippines, are however difficult to assess with the ASAP indicators.   

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season is complete in Central America and the final production was below average due to dry conditions and high temperatures since mid-June in the dry corridor, affecting mainly subsistence farmers in eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Despite a delayed onset of the segunda season rains, crop conditions have generally recovered thanks to good rainfall in the last weeks and are close to normal. Exceptional rainfall was received in early October, leading to floods in several areas of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Conditions have also improved for the summer season in Haiti due to good rains over the last weeks.  On the contrary, dry conditions persist in Cuba, affecting crops mainly in the central and eastern parts of the island.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The November assessment will be released at the end of November 2018

 

East Africa: Abundant rainfall in August and September has generally favoured good crop and livestock production in the northern part of the region. In Sudan the exceptional rainfall has caused extensive flooding and damaged croplands. Also the planted area is below average due a surge in agricultural input prices. In Ethiopia, Meher crops that will be harvested later in the year, are generally performing well, except localized areas with dry conditions in the Rift Valley area. Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall, despite a dry spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s Karamoja region and early season floods in eastern Kenya and in Southern Somalia. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict, delayed seasonal onset in the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.  

Southern Africa: Land preparation activities are occurring at this period across the region and rainfall monitoring in the next weeks will be important, as there is an increased likelihood of an El Niño event during the 2018-2019 rainy season (El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion). The winter wheat production forecast for South Africa is positive, thanks to good rainfall received in August and September.

West and Central Africa: The main rainy season in the Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral areas allowing for above average vegetation conditions. Crop and rangeland conditions have slightly improved also in western Senegal and south western Maritania, where cumulated rainfall remains significantly below average though and dry conditions prevail for the second season in a row. Abundant rainfall since June over the river basins of the Niger and Benue rivers has caused disastrous floods in Nigeria, causing casualties and damage to housing, roads and also to crop lands (see also September special alert). The conflict in north eastern Nigeria, combined with resources related clashes among pastoralists, continues to cause low food production and high risk of food insecurity.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the region are out of season after a generally good winter wheat production. Summer crops in Egypt are also showing clearly below average biomass most likely due to high temperatures experienced in the region since the beginning of this year.

Middle-East:   In the eastern half of Iran and along the Euphrates river in eastern Syria (Dayr Az Zor) and southern Iraq (Najaf and Qadissiya), the production of irrigated summer crops is below average as a result of lack of irrigation water, government ban on certain summer crops and conflict (case of Syria although some improvement is noted in Raqqa and the north west of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017). In western Yemen (Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taizz), sorghum, wheat and millet productions are jeopardized as a result of an ongoing drought compounded by conflict; for instance, Al Hudaydah, the main province for crop production, received only 24% of its average 75 mm of rain over the last month, which corresponds to the peak of the second rainy season.

Central and South Asia: the south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan (Navoyi and Kashkadarya) and the northwest of Afghanistan, the production of summer crops (including cotton) is expected to be reduced with respect to average and to 2017 as a result of irrigation deficit. In Afghanistan, the drought of this spring has caused more than 250,000 people to leave their villages in quest for food. According to a national report, in some regions of the northwest, cereal production is down by up to 70% with respect to 2017. Southern Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan) is also suffering from an ongoing drought as well as reduced irrigation of summer (kharif) crops, as shown by the reduction in irrigated crops areas.

Southeast Asia: after the heavy rains of July and August in Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, main season rice is growing under favourable conditions, except in northern Philippines where Luzon island has been again stricken by a very strong typhoon (Mangkhuk) which damaged maize and rice crops and dwellings. 

In North Korea, crop biomass is above average in most regions including the rice bowl area. The impact of the dry spell combined with high temperatures (2-3 C above average) during the pollination of cereals in the period 20 July- 20 August in south and north Hwanghae and in Pyongyang-Si needs to be assessed by field survey.  

Central America: In Central America, the primera season harvest is nearing completion and production is reduced due to the prolonged dry spells and high temperatures since mid-June in the “Dry corridor”. The main areas of concern, affected subsistence farmers in eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Thanks to recent rainfall, overall conditions slightly improved, although concern remains and postrera planting in these areas was delayed. In Haiti, recent rains somewhat alleviated the situation in the Transversal region during the summer season. However, poor conditions persist and crop sowing was delayed, particularly in the southern and western areas.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The October assessment will be released at the end of October 2018

East Africa: The June-September season is generally progressing well in the northern part of the region, with above average rainfall in most countries and main risks linked to flooding. Floods have occurred on a relatively large scale in Sudan, both in the main producing regions in the East as well as in Nothern Darfur and parts of Kordofan, while in general the abundant rainfall has mainly positive effects on crops and rangelands productivity in the country. In Somalia final crop production is expected to be above average thanks to off good performance in rainfed areas and off season production in flooded riverine areas. In Ethiopia the overall situation is also good despite some areas with below average rainfall concentrated in eastern Oromia and southern SNNPR. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall, despite a dry spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s Karamoja region. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict, delayed seasonal onset in the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.  

Southern Africa: The main agricultural season has ended in the Southern Africa region and cereal crop production was reduced in most of the countries of the region, due to the prolonged dry spells in early 2018. The winter wheat planting has been completed in South Africa and planting regions in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and conditions are good at this stage.

West Africa: The main rainy season in the Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral areas allowing for above average vegetation conditions. The main exception in the region is the area including Western Senegal, Western Mauretania and the Gambia, where seasonal rains have stopped earlier than normal. Rainfall has improved even in areas affected by early season drought such as in Guinea, the northern part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria. Security continues to be a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria. In the latter, seasonal pastoral migration from southern and central areas to the north is particularly constrained by security concerns.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the region are out of season and the 2018 harvest in June was above average, with exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5 years average production.

Middle-East:   in Syria, Iraq and Iran, biomass levels of irrigated summer crops are below average as a result of either conflict (case of Syria although some improvement is noted in Raqqa and north west, but not south east of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017) or lack of irrigation water. Actually both Iraq and the eastern half of Iran have banned certain summer crops to save water; the effect of such a ban is visible in Najaf in Iraq, where rice areas are dramatically reduced with respect to 2017. In Yemen (Al Hudaydah), cereals growth appears to be delayed with respect to average and to 2017, as a result of conflict, combined with a dry spell in May-July.  

Central and South Asia: the south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya) and the north west of Afghanistan show below average level of biomass for summer crops (including cotton) as a result of reduced irrigation (in Uzbekistan, some water reservoirs clearly show lower water levels than in 2017). In the north west of Afghanistan (particularly in Jawzjan and Faryab), summer crops show below average and below 2017 biomass as a result of reduced irrigation. 

Southeast Asia: In SE Asia, namely southern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Laos and northern Vietnam, the planting of main season rice appears to be delayed as a result of the heavy rainfall received in July and August over the region. This rainfall brought by tropical storms caused floodings in many regions (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Philippines), damage to recently planted rice and/or delay in rice planting. In DPRK although crop biomass is close or above average according to satellite imagery, a one month dry spell combined with temperatures above average by 2-3 degrees Celsius affected two important provinces of the rice bowl area (Hwanghae namdo and Pyongyang-Si) over mid July-mid August and may have damaged rice and maize crops at flowering stage. A field survey would be needed for precise damage assessment. 

Central America: Despite a good start of the 2018 main season, crop losses have been registered in parts of Central America due to dry spells since mid-June that affected vegetation. The area most affected encompasses subsistence farmers in the “Dry corridor” of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, where the Governments reported losses of 282,000 ha of maize and beans. In Haiti, prospects for the spring season are below average due to dryness caused by poor and irregular rainfall, mainly in the southern and eastern regions. At the same time, in Cuba, the situation has also deteriorated in the last month due to below average rainfall.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The September assessment will be released at the end of September 2018

East Africa: Despite flood damage due to exceptional rainfall in April/May in Kenya and Somalia, crop conditions close to harvest time for areas with an April/June growing season, are generally positive. In Somalia low crop production is expected in riverine areas hit by floods, but will be partially compensated by off-season production (to be harvested in August/September). The main season is progressing well in Ethiopia with some areas concerned by dry conditions (Afar and north Somali) and heavy rainfall in July in parts of the highlands. Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict and delayed seasonal onset in the northern part.  

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region harvest of the main agricultural season has been completed and cereal crop production is reduced in most of the countries of the region, due to the prolonged dry spells early in the season.  Crops and rangelands have been severely damaged in southwest Madagascar. The southern provinces of Mozambique, central and southern Malawi and southern Zambia have also been negatively affected, resulting in low yields in these areas. Good cereal production levels have been achieved in South Africa, northern Mozambique and northern Malawi. Winter wheat has been planted in the Cape area of South Africa with favorable weather conditions so far, especially in the western part of Western Cape.

West Africa: June/July rainfall has been beneficial for promising crop and pastures development in most countries of the region. Rainfall has improved even in areas affected by early season drought such as in Guinea, northern part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria. Security continues to be a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria. In the latter, seasonal pastoral migration from southern and central areas to the north is particularly constrained by security concerns.

North Africa: Harvest is complete in the region and most areas have experienced above average production, with exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5 years average production.

Middle-East:   In Syria and Iraq, winter cereals have been harvested and a production drop is anticipated for north east Syria (in particular Hassakeh) and north west Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk) as a result of the winter-spring drought and conflict; in Syria, irrigated summer crops are now growing along the Euphrate river and although the number of irrigated fields is below pre-conflict levels, the situation has improved with respect to 2017, especially in Raqqa and the northern third of Dayr Az Zor. In Iran, the overall situation is positive thanks to good cereal production prospects in the western and northern parts of the country and despite an expected production drop in the centre - south (Esfahan, Fars) as a result of a spring dry spell and probable lack of irrigation water.

Central and South Asia: as a result of the dry conditions of this winter-spring, and despite irrigation water, pastures and crops production are well below average in the south east of Turkmenistan, most of Uzbekistan (especially the south east part in Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Bukhara), as well as in a west to north strip of Afghanistan (Hirat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh), where winter cereal production is expected to drop with respect to both average and 2017 levels. In Afghanistan, the area dedicated to irrigated summer crops is reduced with respect to 2017 most likely due to lack of irrigation water.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in continental southeast Asia as well as in northern Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In Indonesia, planting of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under good conditions. In DPRK conditions are also favorable for both rice and maize.

Central America: After a timely onset of the 2018 Primera season and favorable development of crops in the early stages, crop conditions are worsening in the dry corridor. This is the case mainly in Honduras and El Salvador following rainfall deficits in the last month. In Haiti, conditions have continued to deteriorate due to dryness since late May, mainly in the central and southern part of the country and production is expected to be below average. In Cuba, main season maize and beans conditions are favorable with only some concerns in the west, again due to dry conditions.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The August assessment will be released at the end of August 2018

East Africa: above average rainfall has continued to fall in June in large areas of Kenya and southern Ethiopia, which had been affected by exceptional floods and storms in April and May. In parts of these countries, as well as in Somalia and Uganda, the largely above average rainfall will benefit main season crops. However, there is also increased risk of crop diseases and pests, including locusts and Fall armyworm. Both human and livestock epidemics are also on the raise where floodwaters are receding. In Ethiopia progress of the Meher season is generally good, although vegetation conditions are below average in parts of the north/east due to late onset of rainfall, dry conditions and a delayed Belg season. In the north/eastern part of the region, including Sudan and the northern part of South Sudan, the onset of the rainy season is slightly delayed and monitoring over the next dekads will be important to understand possible impacts on agricultural  production.

In South Sudan, despite the recent ceasefire between the main conflict parties, the humanitarian situation is on the brink of famine and cholera outbreaks in several parts of the country have been reported.

Southern Africa: Harvest is underway in most parts of Southern Africa and preliminary reports indicate a decrease in cereal production outputs due to the early season dry spell that had an adverse effect on crops during crucial development stages. Most affected are the southern provinces of Mozambique, central and southern Malawi and southern Zambia. Below average rangeland conditions and early pastures depletion are visible in southern Namibia and south west Madagascar. Improved rainfall in the second part of the season is boosting production prospects in South Africa, northern and central Mozambique, Angola and northern Malawi. Late planted crops will also benefit production outputs in Zimbabwe. Carryover stocks from 2017 harvest will support food availability in most countries.

West Africa: June marks the onset of the main season across the Sahel and early rainfall has been positive in most areas. In the Sudanean belt and in parts of the Gulf of Guinea however, there has been early season drought affecting agricultural vegetation in Guinea, northern part of Sierra Leone and in Benin and central Nigeria. A slight delay in rainfall onset can be observed also in southern Senegal. Parts of Mali and Burkina are still affected by low pastoral biomass productivity conditions following the 2017 drought and leading to pastures deficit and high commodity prices. Security is a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria.

North Africa: At harvest time, the exceptionally good yields expected in Morocco are confirmed (15% above 5 years average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Yield expectations for Algeria are also clearly above average, while drought conditions in central Tunisia bring national level yield expectations slightly below the 5 years average.

Middle-East:  Cereal harvest is completed in Syria and Iraq and a strong decrease in cereal production is expected in northern Syria (especially Hassakeh, but also Dayr Az Zor and to a lesser extent Raqqa and Aleppo) and northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk)  as a result of reduced or failed sowings. In the centre - south of Iran (Esfahan, Fars) production is also expected to be below average due to probable lack of irrigation water and above average temperatures in February-March, while conditions and prospects are good for western and north western Iran.

Central Asia: As a result of the dry conditions of this winter-spring, pastures availability is well below average in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan (Samarkand and Kashkadarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis, Faryab,  Jawzjan, Balkh,  Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production  is also expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan, the southern part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya and Samarkand) and south east of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal) as a result of drought and reduced or failed sowings.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia as well as in northern Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In Indonesia, planting of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under good conditions. In DPRK conditions are also favourable (with plentiful water) for rice and maize.

Central America: The planting of the primera season is nearing completion in Central America and conditions are generally favorable throughout with good rains received. Conditions in Haiti have worsened since last month due to dryness from the end of May to mid-June mainly in the central and southern part of the country, although the effects on vegetation are still reduced.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

 

The July assessment will be released at the end of July 2018

East Africa: Most agricultural areas in the Horn have continued to receive average or above average rainfall in May, following the exceptional amounts of April. In the main river basins however, flooding has caused loss of lives and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, as well as damage to infrastructure and crops. Strong tropical storms have been recorded in the region in May and Cyclone Sagar hit the coast of Somalia and Djibouti at the end of the month.
More information on flood impact on agriculture is available in the Special Alerts section.

Despite the impact of floods in the southern part of Ethiopia, Belg crops have generally developed well and the Meher season is expected to start in May/June. In Tanzania crop conditions for the main crop areas in the South are favorable, while flood damage has been reported mainly in the north of the country. In Somalia, for non flooded areas the abundant early season rainfall is beneficial for the early stages of Gu crops and for rangelands recovery. However the country comes out of 3 consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and continued regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors for successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced. In Rwanda flooding is reported to have caused major damage to the ongoing crop season with negative impacts mainly on rice and sugarcane.

Southern Africa: Around harvesting time in most of Southern Africa crop prospects have improved as compared to earlier assessments due to above average rainfall in the last 4 months. For example in northern Zambia, northern Malawi, South Africa, main agricultural areas of Angola, Northern Mozambique and north east Namibia, expected crop production is close to average or slightly above. On the contrary, in southern Mozambique, parts of Zimbabwe, central and southern Malawi, southern Zambia and Lesotho, crop production is below average due to the impact of early season dry spells. In other areas, including mainly western and southern Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region. In terms of food availability most countries, including those with below average production expectations in 2018, are still benefitting from large stocks of the 2017 bumper harvest.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas and led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and led to extended livestock fodder deficits. This is the case also for areas only partially affected by the 2017 drought such as Niger, now in the lean season. Improvements in the security situation will be essential for successful field preparation and planting operations in the North East of Nigeria. Below average early season rainfall is causing a delay in the start of the season in parts of the Gulf of Guinea in parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and to some extent also in Togo, Benin and central parts of Nigeria.

North Africa: Abundant and well distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter cereals in the Maghreb and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017. The positive agro-meteo conditions have continued through May and led to upwards corrections in MARS yield forecasts. Morocco expects a bumper harvest with wheat yields ca. 20% above average. Latest forecasts for Algeria are also above average. Central Tunisia remains the main area with below average yield expectations due to irregular rainfall.

Middle-East:  In northern Syria (two thirds of Hassakeh, and also part of Aleppo, Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk) cereal production is expected to decrease strongly as a result of reduced or failed sowings. In contrast, cereal production prospects are good for western and north western Iran while lack of irrigation water combined with temperatures 6 to 7C above average have affected the southern arid and less productive areas of the country (Fars, Esfahan, Marzaki).

Central Asia: as a result of the dry conditions of the winter/springperiod, pastures production is well below average in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan (Samarkand and Kashkadarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis, Faryab,  Jawzjan, Balkh,  Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production  is also expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan and also in the southern part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya) as a result of reduced or failed sowings.

Southeast Asia: planting of wet season rice has started with favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia while in Indonesia, after the harvest of main season rice, planting of dry season rice and maize is taking place under good conditions (Sumatra and the east of Java).

Central America: The primera season has recently started in most countries of Central America. Conditions are generally favorable at this early stage of the season. However, there is some dryness observed in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. In the Caribbean, spring season is ongoing in Haiti and crops are in vegetative to reproductive stages. Conditions are favorable despite concerns in localized areas in the west and south. In Cuba, main season rice planting is underway and conditions are predominantly favorable. Rainfall in May in coastal Peru and Ecuador have mitigated drought concerns despite remaining pockets of crop failure.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The June assessment will be released at the end of June 2018

Southern Africa: Agrometeorological conditions in most parts of Southern Africa have improved from February to April as compared to the widespread early season dry spells and high temperatures in January. For crops in most of South Africa, northern and central Zambia and in many pastoral areas (including for example in Botswana), this has led to recovery of crop and rangeland conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early season dry spells, crop recovery is more limited in Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern Mozambique, Lesotho and in south east Botswana, where production forecasts are below average. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as a challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa: The Horn of Africa has received abundant early season rainfall, with peaks of up to 200% in parts of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda where there is an increased risk of flooding.  In Ethiopia Belg crops have developed well with some exceptions in the north east of the country. In Tanzania crop conditions for the main crop areas in the South are favorable and rainfall has improved also in parts of the center affected by early season dryness. In Somalia the good early season rainfall is beneficial for Gu planting and for rangelands recovery, but the country comes out of 3 consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and continued regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors for successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced.

North Africa: From February to April abundant and well distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter crops and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017 which had delayed planting. Below average crop performance is visible only parts of eastern Algeria and in central Tunisia. According to the latest MARS bulletin (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc-mars-bulletin-vol26-no04.pdf), yield forecasts are slightly above average for the Maghreb countries except for Algeria (slightly below).

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities. The main crop season in the Sahelian belt will start in June.

Middle-East:  In northern Syria (in particular in the eastern two thirds of Hassakeh, and also part of Aleppo and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (north-west of Mossoul and west of Dahuk) high resolution imagery shows that cereals were not sown or have failed on many fields, in contrast with the 2017 campaign. A strong reduction of cereal production is therefore anticipated in these regions. In contrast, northern Iran benefited from good rains and above average temperatures while dry conditions still affect the southern less productive areas of the country (e.g. Fars, Esfahan).

Central Asia: As a result of the dry conditions that persist since this winter, pastures productivity is clearly reduced in a large region that includes the southeast of Turkmenistan  (Mary, Chardzhou) and Uzbekistan (Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (especially Jawzjan, Faryab and Badghis, and to a lesser extent Sar-e-Pul, Balkh and Hirat), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals in this region are also expected to have a production drop.

Southeast Asia: Conditions are favorable for the starting harvest of dry season rice in continental southeast Asia and for the main season rice harvest in Indonesia.

Central America and the Caribbean: In Central America, land preparation is underway for the start of the Primera season in mid-May. In Cuba, sowing for main season rice is underway under normal conditions despite some concern in localized areas due to dry conditions, whereas in Haiti maize and bean planting of the spring season is ongoing with some below average precipitation in April. In the coastal areas of Ecuador and to some extent in Peru, cereals production is affected by drought.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The May assessment will be released at the end of May 2018

 

Southern Africa: Rainfall in most parts of Southern Africa has improved in February and March following widespread early season dry spells and high temperatures in January. For crops in South Africa, parts of Zambia and Madagascar and in many pastoral areas (including for example Botswana), this has led to partial recovery of crop and rangeland conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early season dry spells, crop recovery is more difficult in Zimbabwe, Southern Zambia, Lesotho and in south east Botswana. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued throughout February and March causing wide spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa: parts of the region including Belg areas in Ethiopia and bi-modal crop areas in Uganda are benefitting from an early start of the rainy season. In Kenya, March rainfall has been particularly intensive leading to an increased risk of flooding. In Tanzania the main crop areas in the South are doing well and rainfall has improved also in parts of the center affected by early season dryness. In Somalia the main season is expected to start in April and due to 4 consecutive drought seasons and prolonged conflict, food security in the country is mainly guaranteed by humanitarian support.

North Africa: In February and March there has been abundant rainfall in most of Morocco, allowing good growth of late planted winter crops. On the contrary in Algeria the early season water deficit in the eastern and central parts have continued and are making below average yields in these areas likely. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, with a good levels of recovery in the north and south but below average in the center.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities.

Middle-East: After the good rains of January and February, over the last month a dry spell has affected the center west of Syria from Idleb to Dara. In contrast, the main cereal production area of northern Syria (Hassakeh and Aleppo) as well as the northern regions of Iraq (Dahuk, Ninewa and Kirkuk) continue to show vegetation biomass levels below pre-conflict levels, despite the good rainfall received since January. In the southern part of Iraq, after the dry winter conditions, cereals have received favourable rainfalls in February. In Iran dry conditions are still affecting the centre-south of the country, with below average biomass levels for winter cereals in Fars.    

Central Asia: The dry conditions that prevailed since October over a region including the southeast of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, northwest and north of Afghanistan and south of Tajikistan, have resulted in below average biomass levels for pastures in the whole region. They also limit winter cereals growth mainly in the north west of Afghanistan (Balkh, Jawzjan, Faryab, Badghis, Hirat) and southeast of Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya). This extended drought starts to cause concern for the availability of water for the irrigation of summer crops.

Southeast Asia: Over continental south-east Asia, dry season rice is growing under favorable conditions. In Indonesia, beneficial rainfall for the ongoing main season rice was received over the last month on the southern part of Sumatra and the western part of Java. 

Central America and the Caribbean: In Central America, most regions are out of season. The Apanate season is almost complete in Guatemala and Nicaragua and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received. The 2018 spring season is starting in Haiti under favorable conditions for planting maize and beans crops.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The April assessment will be released at the end of April 2018

East Africa: Second season production was affected by drought in Somalia and parts of Kenya and Tanzania. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and crop production is reported by FSNAU to be below 80% of long term average in the South and only 30% in North West. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and aggravates a food security situation bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with large parts of the population depending on external assistance. Land preparation has started for the 2018 Belg season in Ethiopia and for the main rainy season in Kenya, Uganda and central Tanzania. Pastoral areas in north eastern Kenya and in Somalia are experiencing early biomass depletion and high temperatures.

West Africa: Most of the region is out of season now with the exception of rice crops. Dry conditions affecting pastoral areas in 2017 have seriously reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas leading to early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and increasing demand of animal fodder. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post harvest activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa rainfall has improved in February following widespread early season dry spells and heat stress. For parts of Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe and Zambia this might help crops to recover. While for other areas for example in Namibia, central/southern Zimbabwe, Botswana and Madagascar crop damage is more advanced and reduces yield expectations. Fall armyworm has been reported in most countries in the region. In South Africa the eastern part of the country has benefited from abundant rainfall in the first part of the season and yellow maize conditions are normal, while white maize grown in the central parts (Free State and North West) are still suffering water stress lowering yield expectations.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria continue to be affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017. In January and February rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco and central and western coast of Algeria. The exact impact of the delayed planting and early season water stress will only be fully visible when crops will be around the middle of the cycle. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, below average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in the western part including south west.

Middle-East: After the dry spell that affected the region over October-December, good rains were received in January and February in Syria, Iraq and northern Iran. In northern Syria and  northern Iraq, the biomass of winter crops is still below pre-conflict levels, partly as a result of the conflict, and despite temperatures 2 to 3C warmer than average for Syria and Iraq.

In contrast, southern Iraq since December, and now the centre and south of Iran are affected by drought, with a limited impact on crops for the time being, thanks to irrigation. 

Central Asia: the dry conditions observed since last October continue to affect pastures in a region including the southeast of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the south of Tajikistan and a large part of Afghanistan. It is still too early to assess the impact of this drought on rainfed winter cereals. 

Southeast Asia: favorable conditions for early vegetative growth of dry season rice in most countries and for main season rice in Indonesia.

Central America and the Caribbean: Harvest of the second season (postrera) is ongoing and prospects are positive due to good rains received throughout the season. Similarly, the short Apante season (January –March) is underway under favorable conditions in Guatemala and Nicaragua due to positive rains.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The March assessment will be released at the end of March 2018

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting the second crop season production (harvested in December/January) in Somalia, Kenya and parts of Tanzania. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and crop production is reported by FSNAU to be below 80% of long term average in the South and only 30% in North West. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and aggravates a food security situation bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with large parts of the population depending on external assistance. In Kenya, the eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected, and livestock prices in those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive area in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) has also experienced unfavorable crop conditions. In Ethiopia the main season was generally characterized by positive agro-climatic conditions, while yield reductions in various areas of the country depend mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north east and in part of the mono-modal center, rainfall was below average with peaks of up to 70% deficit. Low domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of the 2017 main season will lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

 

West Africa: The main season ended in December in the mono-seasonal part of the area and was generally favorable with the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to migrate to neighboring countries.  Also localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season has improved in its late stages following an initial water deficit. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact agricultural activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa the dry conditions that started in late November continued throughout December and in January, leading to reduced yield expectations in several countries. At around the middle of the summer crop season, crop conditions are affected by drought stress in parts of Zimbabwe (mainly West Mashonaland, Northern Matabeleland and Masvingo), central/north of South Africa (mainly Free State and North West), in north east and south east Botswana, in the coastal part of Angola, North of Namibia and Southern Madagascar. Erratic rainfall in January has caused dry spells also in the northern part of the region, which had experienced abundant rainfall in the initial part of the season (eg. in Malawi and Southern Zambia). Fall armyworm is also reported to be a problem for the 2017-2018 season in most of the area.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria are affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017. In January rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco and central and western coast of Algeria. Late planting could still lead to average yields in parts of Morocco, assuming good rainfall in the next month. Conditions have improved also in parts of coastal and western Algeria, while in the eastern part 2018 yields expectations remain low. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, below average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in the western part including south west.

Middle East: The whole region (including southern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has received about 40-60% of the normal October-December rainfall. Winter cereals are still at an early stage, so the impact of the autumn dry spell, which is likely to compound the consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq, cannot yet be assessed.

As for Yemen, December-February is generally out of season for farming activities, but all productive activities in the country still suffers the consequences of the ongoing conflict.

 

 

Central Asia: Drier than average conditions over October-December affected pastures of the region going from eastern Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya), southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern border of Afghanistan.  No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

 

Southeast Asia: In continental southeast Asia, December corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet season rice and the start of planting of winter-spring rice. No particular event is to be reported (apart from tropical storms with limited impact on rice cultivation over Philippines). 

 

Central America and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received across Central America that benefited maize and beans crops. 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The February assessment will be released at the end of February 2018 

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting mainly Somalia and Kenya. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and the only close to average rainfall was concentrated in November. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected, and livestock prices in those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive area in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) has also experienced unfavorable crop conditions.

In Ethiopia the main season was generally characterized by positive agro-climatic conditions, while yield reductions in various areas of the country depend mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north east and in part of the mono-modal center, rainfall is below average with peaks of up to 70% deficit. Low domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of the 2017 main season will lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

West Africa: The main season ended in December in the uni-seasonal part of the region and was generally favorable with the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to migrate to neighbouring countries.  Also localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season shows a slightly below average performance in several countries including parts of Benin and southern Nigeria. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities and part of the north east (Adamawa and Gombe in particular) is experiencing low pastoral biomass production due early rainfall cessation.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most agricultural regions are in vegetative stage and planting took place under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November however, rainfall decreased in parts of South Africa, Swaziland and in the coastal and central part of Angola. Good December rainfall reestablished a generally positive summer crop outlook in South Africa, with only a central north/south belt still affected by rainfall deficits. In Angola the situation has improved for the main cereal growing areas as compared to November, but rainfall deficits remain in the central coastal areas. Rainfall has decreased in December in the South of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, but initial seasonal rainfall was above average in those areas.  

North Africa: Most of Morocco and Algeria are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since October 2017. Conditions have improved in parts of Coastal Algeria in November/December, but for the other areas this deficit (mostly between 30 and 50% of the 90 days rainfall) is leading to low 2018 yields expectations. In parts of Morocco, vegetation conditions at this stage of the season are below those of 2016, the last drought year.

Middle East:The whole region (including southern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has received about 40-60% of the normal October-December rainfall. Winter cereals are still at an early stage, so the impact of the autumn dry spell, which is likely to compound the consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq, cannot yet be assessed.

 As for Yemen, December-February corresponds to a break period for farming activities, but the country still suffers from the consequences of the ongoing conflict.

Central Asia: Drier than average conditions over October-December affected pastures of the region going from eastern Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya), southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern border of Afghanistan.  No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

Southeast Asia: In continental southeast Asia, December corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet season rice and the start of planting of winter-spring rice. No particular event is to be reported (apart from tropical storms with limited impact on rice cultivation over Philippines). 

Central America and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received across Central America that benefited maize and beans crops. 

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The January assessment will be released at the end of January 2018 

East Africa: At the end of the Deyr rainy season most crop and rangeland areas in southern and central Somalia have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall. For Somalia this is the fourth season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the north and south eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also concerned. The main productive areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) are also suffering drought conditions. The current drought in the Horn is linked to a weak la Niña event which could also negatively impact on the 2018 rainy season. 
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation. Rainfall has improved in the Eastern part of the pastoral areas in Ethiopias Somali region. In Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially irregular rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in Kassala state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

West Africa: The drought hitting Mauretania and the northern part of Senegal since July 2017 has continued until the end of the main season and has lead to insufficient production of pastoral biomass. According to reports by various sources, seasonal pastoral migration in these regions has begun much earlier than usual and herders are moving to neighboring regions in Mali, which also suffered rainfall deficit. The main crop season in the Sahel is entering the harvesting period and yield expectations are generally close to average or above, while localized areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop season.  In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season started late and performance is slightly below average. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities and part of the north East (Adamawa and Gombe in particular) is experiencing low pastoral biomass production due to rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most agricultural regions are in an early vegetative stage and planting took place under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November rainfall has decreased however in South Africa’s main cereal producing regions, Lesotho and Swaziland, in the coastal and central part of Angola, in Northern Mozambique and in the Southern half of Madagascar. In most of these areas there is ample room for recovery, but rainfall needs to be monitored carefully over the next weeks.  

North Africa: Most of Morocco and the eastern Algeria are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since October. There is still time for winter crop planting which can extend to December, but rainfall in late November and in December will be crucial. Conditions have improved in parts of Eastern Algeria.

Central and south Asia: a dry spell affected the region going from south Kazakhstan to eastern Uzbekistan over the last month / trimester at the start of winter cereals growth. However it is too early to assess any impact on wheat and barley growth. 

South East Asia: harvest of the main season rice is ending in most countries of the continent as well as north Philippines and fields are prepared for winter/spring rice planting. In Indonesia, the planting of main season rice in Java and south Sumatra and the sowings of maize are ongoing.

Middle East: Most of Iran (centre north and northwest) and the western half of Syria (especially Aleppo and Idleb) have been affected by an autumn dry spell with about half of the average rainfall received over the last one to three months. Impact on winter cereals sowings and emergence is however difficult to assess at this stage. In north eastern Iraq (Sulaymaniyah), as in 2016, the growth of winter cereals is delayed with respect to the long term average, maybe as a result of a shift towards spring cereals or because of the drier conditions than average.

 In Yemen, the sorghum season is ending in the main production area (Al Hudaydah) which received 50% of its average rainfall over the last three months. Although there is apparently no biomass reduction with respect to the average, the consequences of the conflict and cholera outbreak are causes of major concern.

Central America and the Caribbean: The postrera season is underway across Central America with favorable conditions due to good rains received. However, some floods have been reported from mid-September to end-October affecting postrera planting and primera harvest in areas of the Central region. The most affected areas have been located in valleys, coastal plains, riversides. For example, damages to agriculture have been reported in Rivas, Ometepe, Madriz, Boaco and Estelí, Jinotega (Nicaragua) and in Cobán, Sayaxché, Chisec and Ixcán (Guatemala).

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The December assessment is scheduled for the second week of January 2018 with a slight delay due to Christmas and End of the Year Festivities.

East Africa: Drought is again affecting the Horn of Africa with a significant delay and low amounts of the seasonal Deyr rainfall in Somalia and in the Somali region of Ethiopia. For Somalia this is the fourth season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine. Repetitive drought and prolonged conflict is seriously eroding livelihoods and food security resilience. There is still room for late season recovery, but seasonal weather forecasts from various sources are pointing towards below average seasonal totals. In Kenya the north eastern pastoral areas and the coastal marginal crop areas are also concerned. The main productive areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) are also affected by drought.
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially irregular rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in Kassala state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative crop conditions are generally taking place in favourable conditions across the region, with an area of slight water deficit concentrated in parts of central and northern Angola. In South Africa the main season has started well in the central and eastern parts of the country. Winter wheat production in Western Cape (harvesting time) is expected to be slightly below average due to early season drought leading to low yields (production is expected to be close to average thanks to a substantial increase in area planted in the Cape area as compared to 2016).  

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is generally developing well, apart from the impact of flood events that hit several countries in the area between August and October, including Niger, Sierra Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting mainly pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears performing well. In the Gulf of Guinea a delay in planting and below average crop performance is affecting the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities.

North Africa: North eastern Algeria is affected by early season water deficit which follows on dry conditions in the last part of the previous season. In parts of central and northern Egypt a small delay of the winter season has been detected.

Middle East: In western Syria, the onset of autumn rains is slightly delayed but still in time for cereals sowing. In Iraq, barley is expected to be sown soon in the northern and eastern regions. In both countries, the production of irrigated summer crops along the Euphrate river (Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor in Syria, Anbar in Iraq) has dropped with respect to pre-conflict levels as a result of damage to irrigation equipment, lack of fuel, fertilizer, seeds and manpower. In Yemen, drier than average conditions have been observed over end July – start October for the southern regions of Lahj and Abyan as well as the more productive region of Al Hudaydah. Little impact is visible until now, but there is a high risk of decreased agricultural activities due to conflict and Cholera outbreak. 

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are generally favourable for wheat harvest in Kazakhstan and for summer crops (including cotton) in the southern countries of the region. 

South and Southeast Asia: In south Asia, overall weather conditions appear to be favourable for rice maturation. In most of the continental part of south-east Asia, the main season rice is at mid cycle with favourable rainfall. In the other regions (Indonesia, Phiipinnes), overall conditions are also good.

Central America and the Caribbean: Overall conditions are mostly favorable with good rains and temperature across Central America.  In the Caribbean region, there are some areas affected by dry conditions and Hurricane Irma has caused localized crop damage.

 

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on the country in the map.

The November assessment is scheduled for December 1st

East Africa: The main season is generally progressing well in Ethiopia from an agro-climatic point of view, while concerns remain due to armyworm damage. In Sudan irregular rainfall is lowering production expectations in both marginal and high potential areas. For most other parts in the region the long rainy season has been below average, including Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania due to a combination of poor rainfall and Fall Armyworm infestation. In south/central Somalia the Gu production was 37% below average according to FSNAU and long cycle sorghum in the north west also performed poorly. Main productive areas in Eritrea are also affected by drought. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: The main season is about to start and monitoring rainfall in the next weeks will be important. The region experienced a generally very good 2016/2017 production, while winter wheat in South Africa had a low outcome due to early season drought leading to low area planted and low performance.

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is generally developing well, with the exception of many areas hit by floods in Sierra Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting mainly pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears still performing well. In the Gulf of Guinea a slight delay in planting is affecting the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural activities.

Central Africa: Agro-climatic conditions have been generally favorable during the 2017 main season and threats to agricultural production are due mainly to humanitarian conflicts and insecurity.

Middle East: despite drier than average conditions over the last three months (which correspond to the dry season) in the centre north and the north-east of Iran (Ghazvin, Tehran and Ardebil) as well as in south Yemen (from Abyan to Taizz), summer crops appear to be in good conditions thanks to irrigation. In Syria, as in 2016, there is a clear reduction of production for irrigated summer crops with respect to pre-conflict levels in Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor.

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are generally favourable over the whole region thanks to irrigation and despite some dry spell in southern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the central part of Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh and Sirdarya).

South and Southeast Asia: In south and south-east Asia, crop conditions generally appear to be favourable, despite minor dry spells in eastern Afghanistan (Nangarhar) and north-east Pakistan. From August to early September heavy monsoon floods destroyed large crop areas in Bangladesh and caused reduced rice yield expectations in Nepal.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: In the rice bowl area, crops appear to have recovered from their delayed planting caused by the June dry spell and their biomass is now slightly above average. Harvest time is approaching for maize and rice and final yields will depend among other factors on the level of maturity that crops can reach in the areas that were planted late.

Central America and the Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable due to good rains in the dry corridor, where harvest is underway for the main primera season. Caribbean crop conditions were generally favorable before 7-10 September when Hurricane Irma struck north Haiti and Cuba causing crop losses and agricultural damage. In the regions affected by the hurricane crop production prospects are still uncertain.

East Africa: In the unimodal areas located mainly in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia the season is generally progressing well, although for North Darfur and for the main productive areas in East Sudan, initial dry conditions have been followed by intensive rainfall with increased risk of flooding. The first season in the bimodal areas has ended in July/August and has been underperforming in Somalia, Kenya, and parts of Uganda, adding pressure to the difficult food security situation especially in the first two. In Kenya late planted crops in the Rift Valley and central regions have benefitted from July/August rainfall, but overall production expectations remain below average. The pastoral drylands in the North are now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of pastoral vegetation availability. In Somalia the long cycle crops in the North West are also performing badly and the national Gu production is reported to be 38% below average. Ethiopia is experiencing a food security crisis in the South East due to prolonged drought. The main agricultural areas in the center of the country are generally performing well so far, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern Oromia regions and are also visible in Afar and Eastern Amhara. The presence of fall armyworm (FAW) in the region also continues to be a risk factor for Meher crops. In Uganda late rainfall has improved crop conditions in the Northern part, while conditions of long cycle sorghum in Karamoja are still critically dependent on additional rainfall. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, crop conditions are below average in several states and agricultural activities are reduced due to the ongoing conflict.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereal crops (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape have experienced drought in the initial stages of the season (and reduced planting) and despite normal rainfall in July/August, current production prospects report a 20% reduction of winter wheat and barley in the Western Cape. West Africa: Crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while a prolonged dry spell has affected the border area between Senegal and Mauritania. In July and August a slight rainfall deficit can be observed in the Vakaga region in CAR, in North Eastern Nigeria and in parts of Chad. Strong rainfall and flooding has been reported in early September in the South of Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone.

Middle East: Harvest of wheat and barley is over in the region and only summer crops are still growing depending on irrigation. In Yemen, some rainfall deficit occurred in August on the western part of the country (Al Hudaydah). Combined with conflict, this deficit may result in reduced sorghum and wheat harvests.

Central Asia: Crop conditions are generally favourable over the whole region. Rainfall deficit has been observed for the June - August period in the southern countries (Uzbekistan, southern Tajikistan and eastern Afghanistan) and two southern provinces of Kazakhstan, but thanks to irrigation, no impact on crop biomass is visible.

South and Southeast Asia: In south Asia, heavy monsoon have hit Nepal and Bangladesh in August, causing major floods and damaging about 80,000 ha of crops in Nepal according to the UN. Besides this damage, crop conditions are generally good. In Pakistan, conditions of irrigated crops appear favourable despite a small rain deficit over Punjab, as well as Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. In Southeast continental Asia and Philippines, the main season rice is in good conditions. This is also the case for the off season rice in Indonesia.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: In August, the rice bowl area and in particular the area south to Pyongyang received above average rainfall and crop biomass appears to have recovered in most of the rice bowl provinces; however, the final rice and maize production is expected to be below average as a result of the delayed planting. The situation needs to be monitored.

Central America and Caribbean: the region is experiencing an exceptionally good crop season due to above average rainfall. Rainfall deficits in Cuba have not caused major damage to crops yet. In Haiti crop conditions are generally good but there are some concerns due to low rainfall in the southern part.

Agricultural production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as compared to previous months with basically no hotspots in Central America and Central and South East Asia. The main season ended well in Southern and Northern Africa and is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa remains the region with the main concerns due to a prolonged drought affecting several countries in the region. There are concerns about drought in the Democratic Republic of North Korea.

East Africa: The long rains season was characterized by rainfall deficits in May-June across Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and Northern Uganda. According to reports, vast areas in Western Kenya, Ethiopia and in Uganda have been invaded by fall armyworm and treatments were often not successful.  In Kenya the Western main maize production areas have recovered to close to average production despite low rainfall, but the central and rift valley areas have reduced yield expectations. Coastal areas experienced high rainfall concentrated in few events and the beginning of the season, followed by irregular rains. The pastoral drylands in the North are now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of pastoral vegetation availability. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvest in July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now harvested, suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and Southwestern areas are affected by drought as well as pastoral areas in Karamoja and part of Northern Uganda. In Ethiopia the Belg season (harvested now) was characterized by irregular rainfall with negative effects concentrated in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the center of the country are performing well so far and in the Northern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop conditions, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern Oromia regions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in other agricultural regions, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereals crops (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape (and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are affected by drought and despite some recent improvements a below average production can be expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: Early crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces). Most of the region has benefitted from strong rains in July and latest concerns are rather about too much rainfall.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield reductions close to 20%.

Middle East: After a delayed start of season, wheat and barley seem to have recovered and yields look close to average, except in Syria due to conflict, where according to FAO/WFP wheat production is half the pre-conflict average production. Also irrigated summer crops areas (e.g. in Dayr Az Zor) appear to be reduced with respect to the (pre-conflict) average. 

Central Asia: In the northern part of central Asia (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), conditions are favourable while the southern countries (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and parts of Afghanistan) experience a strong rainfall deficit, with however no visible impact as most crops are irrigated.

South and Southeast Asia:  Average to favourable conditions in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. In southeast Asia (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines), planting of the main season rice is ongoing with favourable rainfall conditions. Good conditions also for Indonesia.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: After average rainfall conditions in March and April, the southern part of the rice bowl area (N. And S. Hwanghae) started experiencing rainfall deficit in May. This deficit affected the whole rice bowl area in June, being particularly severe on the northern provinces of the area (N. & S. Pyongan and Pyongyang). Good rain fell on the first dekad of July, but the May June dry spell must have affected the early crops yields (potatoes, winter wheat and barley) of this region which accounts for 70% of all crops production (and 75% of the rice production), This dry spell has delayed rice planting and maize sowings, which normally take place in May-June, by about one month. The impact of these late sowings will have to be monitored during the season.  

Central America and Caribbean: Despite the late start of the primera season, most countries in Central America and the Caribbean have recovered quite well due to positive rainfall with favorable maize and bean prospects for the season. Ecuador is facing an early end of the season with several below average rainfall conditions, which in turn has produced deterioration of croplands in coastal regions.

At the global level agricultural production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as compared to the previous months, with no hotspots in Central America and Central and South-East Asia. The main season generally ended well in Southern and Northern Africa and is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa remains the region with the main concerns due to the partial failure of the long rains.

East Africa: The long rains season was characterized by deficits in May-June across Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Uganda. In addition large areas in Western Kenya and in Uganda have been invaded by Armyworm and treatments where often not successful.  In Kenya both the Western main maize production areas and the Rift Valley areas received below average rainfall while marginal coastal areas experienced high rainfall concentrated in few events. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvested in July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now being harvested, suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country continue to experience a rainfall deficit despite some improvement in May. In Karamoja and part of Northern Uganda, pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia the Belg season (bein harvested now) was characterized by irregular rainfall. The most affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the Center of the country are performing well so far and in the Nothern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop conditions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in Northern Bhar el Ghazal, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

The region is generally performing well with no production hotspots identified in June, apart from an expected below average production in Syria linked to the ongoing conflict. In the Middle-East, harvest of wheat and barley is on going. After a delayed start of season in Iraq and Iran, crops have recovered in May-June. Favourable conditions are observed in Kazakhstan and in the other Central Asian republics (TJK, KGZ, TKM, UZB). Drier than average conditions over the centre-eastern part of Afghanistan and north western part of Pakistan (with roughly 30-50% of the normal rainfall received over the last three months) do not seem to have impacted crops thanks to irrigation.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape (and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are badly affected by drought and significantly below average production is expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: Early crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces).

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield reductions close to 20%.

Southeast Asia: South-east Asia: the main season rice is starting with favourable rainfall conditions overall.

Central America and Caribbean: Conditions in Central America are generally favorable for the primera season crops, mainly maize and beans, as a result of beneficial rains received since mid-May. There have been some dry spells only in north Honduras and Guatemala. The Caribbean area faced some dryness at the end of May and beginning of June but without a clear impact on crop production yet.

At the end of May 2017 the main crop season affected by poor long rains in Eastern Africa remains of concern, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also continue to experience problems to their main crop season (eg. Iran and Iraq) or decreased cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East Africa: The long rains season remains characterized by rainfall deficits in May in Kenya, Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and northern Uganda. In Kenya rainfall has been below average in most of the country, and in the high production areas in Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported. Torrential rainfall in the coastal provinces in May has had little benefit to crops and exposed riverine areas to flooding. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but cumulated amounts are 30-60% below average and a decreased Gu production will add further stress to the critical food security situation following the failed 2016 Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center still suffer from late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country continue to experience a rainfall deficit despite some improvement in May. The North Eastern pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg season rainfall was characterized by irregular rainfall which has also delayed main season planting. The most affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural areas in the Center of the country are perfoming well so far and in the Nothern parts May rainfall has also improved crop conditions. Finally in South Sudan there are rainfall deficits across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia: We expect lower than average cereals production levels in northern Syria as a result of the ongoing conflict, but also in northern Iraq (Kurdistan region) and the centre-west of Iran due to the delayed onset of vegetation growth. 

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape are badly affected by drought and significantly below average production is expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: In the southern part early crop conditions are generally favorable so far, with dry spells visible mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo as well as in the western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces). Planting is going on in the Sahelian belt and irrigated rice is reported to perform well.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: For the northern part of SE Asia (Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Northern Philippines), the main season rice planting has started while for the southern part (Indonesia, South Philippines, Timor Leste), the harvest of the main season rice is underway, with good levels of production expected; this harvest should be followed by the start of dry season rice planting.

Central America and Caribbean: The main crop season (primera) started late due to lower than normal rainfall in April that lead to soil moisture constraints in the dry corridor in Central America, in particular Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Positive rainfall in May mitigated drought concerns and maize planting has already begun. 

At the end of April 2017 the main situation of concern for agricultural hotspots in countries affected by food insecurity is still located in Eastern Africa with poor long rains, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also experienced a delayed start of the main season (eg. Iran and Iraq) or low cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East Africa: The long rains season has not performed well so far in Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. In Kenya rainfall has been below average in most of the country, and in the high production areas in Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported. Somalia has received some rainfall in April, but the cumulated amounts in both Southern and North Western agricultural areas are still clearly below average and below Gu average would further aggravate the critical food security situation following the failed Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center still suffer from late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast area again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country are affected by rainfall deficits leading to a late seasonal start. The North Eastern pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg season rainfall was partially below average and early Meher rainfall has also been below average in the Southern part of the country (including East Oromia and Somali regions). Finally in South Sudan there are rainfall deficits across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

Good rainfall in northern Syria in March-April should favour growth of natural vegetation but cereals production is expected to be lower than average due to conflict.  In Iraq, good rainfall in the Kurdistan region. Still below average conditions along the Euphrate river. In Iran, delayed vegetation growth in the north-west and centre west - situation to be monitored. Dry conditions over eastern Afghanistan (south and east of Kabul) at the very start of the crop season.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region end of April corresponds to the end of the  main season. Most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). The main exceptions in the region are in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West Africa: The main season planting has started and early crop conditions are generally favorable so far.  Irrigated rice is reported to perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. In March and April rainfall has been below average, but with the exception of North East and North West Algeria crop conditions are not affected yet. Yield prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: Harvest is underway in northern Southeast Asia and in Indonesia with generally positive yield prospects due to sufficient irrigation water. Dry season rice is also progressing under generally favorable conditions in Vietnam, Cambodia and Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Most regions remain out of season, planting of the 2017 Primera season is expected in mid-May. The main summer season in Bolivia and Peru is nearing completion, with above average prospects despite the dry conditions at the beginning of the season.   

In March 2017 the main hotspots for agricultural production remain concentrated in Eastern Africa with a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also showing a delayed start of the main season, due to a combination of irregular rainfall, abundant cloud cover and in some cases snow.   

West Africa: The main season has not started yet and irrigated rice is reported to perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

East Africa: The long rains season is starting in Kenya and follows a below average short rains production combined with drought affecting the pastoral regions in the Northern part of the country. In the marginal agricultural areas along the coast, a failed short rains season is currently being followed by a delay in the onset of the long rains. Somalia is currently in the dry season, but a sequence of seasonal failures have led to an ongoing humanitarian crisis and millions of people depend on external aid, while wheather forecasts indicate below average Gu rainfall, risking to further aggravate the situation.  In Tanzania the main maize area in the South and Center are benefitting from rainfall in February and March leading to an improvement of an initially delayed season. The initial rainfall of the second season in the bimodal areas has performed well so far. Rainfall has improved also in Uganda over the whole cattle corridor, leading to a positive start of the main season and an improvement of pasture conditions. The bimodal parts of Ethiopia have received some early Belg rainfall, but vegetation activity and water availability in all the Southern States is still very low following the drought experienced in late 2016.

Southern Africa: the abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since mid December has continued throughout February and March and has generally improved crop and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West), Namibia (Kunene) and Madagascar (Centre/North) and parts of Mozambique (Centre/West). South Africa has announced bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main maize areas.  The army worm outbreak that affected several countries at the beginning of the year has had different impact across the region, with limited effects reported for Zimbabwe and higher losses in Zambia.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has experienced good rainfall for cereals since December with intensive rainfall and some snow in February. Prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Some rainfall deficits can be observed in North/Eastern Algeria.

Middle East - Central Asia: below average vegetation conditions and delayed start of crop season (possibly due to snow in central Asia in TJK, KGZ, central AFG - or to failed autumn sowings of winter cereals. The latter is particularly is particularly evident in Syria, but affects the whole region, including North and West Iraq,  the Northern half of Iran till Turkmenistan, West Kirghizstan, East Uzbekistan and North Afghanistan.

SE Asia: Very wet conditions in southern Philippines (Mindamao) in mid February and early March may have affected wet season rice close to harvest.

Central America and Caribbean: crop development is close to average due to positive rainfalls received in the last two months and generally compensating for dry condition at the beginning of the season.

At the end of February 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries are relatively good and the 3 major hotspot countries (Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania) have remained the same as in January. Several minor hotspots remain in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in the middle East and South East Asia.

West Africa: the main season in 2016 has performed well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production due to the ongoing conflict is North East Nigeria.

East Africa: The failed Deyr rainfall following a low production Gu season and link to scarce availability of pasture and drinking water is causing a humanitarian crisis. On top of the current critical situation, forecasts for the next Gu season starting in April are also negative.  In the coastal areas of Kenya short rains have failed and production in the rest of the country was below average. Most of the pastoral areas in North are experiencing a particularly harsh dry season. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions was affected by drought and the main maize season in its initial stage in the South is also affected by rainfall deficits. A similar situation (below average short season production followed by dry onset of main season) can be observed in the central and southern parts of Uganda.

Southern Africa: the abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since mid December has continued throughout February and has generally improved crop and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West), Namibia (North West) and Madagascar (rice areas). South Africa has announced bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main maize areas.  Concerns are due to an outbreak of army worms destroying maize plants in Zambia Zimbabwe and Malawi. Treatments against the non endemic pest have shown to be scarcely effective.

Middle East: Winter cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE cereal producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be monitored and confirmed in the next months.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions, except for excess rain in the eastern part of central Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable. Despite rainfall deficits observed since January, vegetation conditions in the most affected areas (Bolivia and Peru) has improved due to normal or above-normal rainfall situation at the beginning of February.

At the end of January 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries are relatively good with the exception of 3 major (Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania) and several minor hotspots countries In Sub Saharan Africa.

West Africa: most of the region is currently out of season and the main season ending in late 2016 has generally performed well.

East Africa: In Somalia the Deyr season has experienced a crop production failure comparable to the 2010 drought which led to a major famine. Pastoral areas across the country are also affected by low biomass and water shortages. The main crop season was not very performant also in Southern Ethiopia, while the most productive areas of the country had generally a good production. In the coastal areas of Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also expected to be very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought and the main maize season in the central area is also affected by rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: despite a slightly late start of the main seasonal rainfall, from the second dekad of December there has been abundant rainfall across the region and favorable agro-climatic conditions with the exception of parts of Angola (North and Central), Namibia (North West), Northern Mozambique and Madagascar. An outbreak of army worms destroying maize plants has been reported in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.

Middle East: Winter cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE cereal producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be monitored and confirmed in the next months.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions, but possible tropical storm impacts in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable across Central America and the Postrera harvests are nearing completion with production prospects above average. In Peru and Bolivia, the summer growing season is underway and maize production is still affected by dry conditions in November.

In mid-December agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good with only minor agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South East Asia. In Sub Saharan Africa however la Nina related drought conditions are worsening in parts of East Africa and there are signs of a delayed main season across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: The Postrera season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable across Central America, despite some drought concerns in northern Nicaragua and El Salvador and some floods in southern Nicaragua due to Hurricane Otto. Drought in the coastal regions of Peru is affecting maize crops in their early development after planting.

Middle East: In Iraq drier than average conditions over southern Iraq to be monitored.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region. 

East Africa: in Somalia the Deyr season has been seriously affected drought from the beginning of the season in October and late rains in November were not sufficient for recovery. The second season is also delayed in Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). In the coastal areas of Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also expected to be very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought. 

According to WFP the drought is largely comparable to late 2010 and might even be worse in some areas: http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp289530.pdf

Southern Africa: the main crop season is still at an early stage in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia, parts of Botswana and Southern Madagascar. In these countries a new drought following last year’s low production season affected by El Nino would have serious consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions. Only in Pakistan we can see low greenness of rangeland areas.

At the end of November agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good without agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South East Asia. Minor hotspots situations are mainly limited to East Africa, while there are first signs of a delayded main season across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: the postrera seasons is progressing well due to close to average rainfall performance across the region.Some dry spells have been reported by other sources in El Salvador.

Middle East: no rainfall over Oct – Nov 20 in the centre-south of Iraq and in some Syrian governorates (Dayr Az Azor, Damascus) or below average rainfall over other governorates (Raqqa, Hassakeh, Homs) may jeopardize wheat and barley crops recently sown.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region.

East Africa: in Somalia the second season has been seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit affecting the South and Central regions. Pastoral areas in central Somalia and Puntland area also suffering drought conditions. The second season is also delayed in Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). Rainfall deficits are threatening short rains season in coastal areas of Kenya (Where this is the main crop season), while the highly prodcutive Victoria basin is also showing impact of rainfall deficit. In Tanzania both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought.

Southern Africa: the main crop season is just starting in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia and parts of Botswana. In these countries a new drought following the last years low production season affected by El Nino would have serious consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

South East Asia: crops (rice mainly) seem to have recovered with respect to the average condition, following an initial delay in rice planting in Vietnam (Mekong delta), Cambodia (Battambang area), Thailand (central region) and Myanmar (Irrawaddy delta), with some concerns remaining mainly in North Vietnam.

In late October agricultural conditions in most food insecure areas are generally positive with only a limited number of hotspots with climatic anomalies affecting production.

AFRICA: in West Africa the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region. The only area with a prolonged dryspell starting in late August is in central Nigeria, where Maize and Millet yields could be affected. Late season rainfall was slightly below average also in Southern Niger and South East Senegal. In East Africa the second season in Somalia is expected to be seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit. The second season seems slightly delayed also in Southern Ethiopia, South East Kenya, Northern Tanzania, parts of Uganda and Rwanda. The low rainfall is typical for the ongoing moderate La Nina event.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: The postrera season is generally progressing well with minor local dry spots in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala. The only hotspot in the region is Haiti, where accourding to UN OCHA 80% of the crop area has been destroyed by Hurricane Matthew.

MIDDLE EAST: Poor harvest of winter cereals in N Syria (Aleppo, Raqqa and Deir es Zor) is followed by likely decrease of irrigation along the Euphrate river. The latter problem is also partially affecting Iraq.

SOUTHEAST ASIA: The main rice season in Myanmar has been affected by drought in the late phase. Also there is concern in the Mekong delta for floods and effects of excessive rainfall, while dry conditions are damaging crops in North Vietnam.